A Big Plan to Create American Jobs

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Your plan is not realistic :/ Do you think we can create jobs doing so?

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Democratic candidates in 2012 need to focus on communicating a strategy for how to create jobs in this country now given economic conditions.  It's easy for everyone to agree that we need jobs, but what exactly is the strategy to create them?  And how should Democrats convey that strategy to the American people?

First, economists generally agree that it takes about 250,000 new jobs created each month to maintain the unemployment rate at its current level.  That means our economy needs to generate in excess of 250k jobs to reduce the rate in any given month.

Next, we can agree that jobs are created when capital invests in new processes, products, services, etc. that find a market for their goods and services.  Investment dollars then flow into physical plant, manufacturing, sales and service, and hiring takes place to produce and distribute the new company's products. 

In this environment, capital acts like blood in the human body, coursing through the economy to find those enterprises most worthy of its attention and participation.  Or, another way of putting it is to say that in our economy capital moves like the cycle of rain water:  it builds up in the clouds, i.e. in the hands of capitalists who consider where to invest it, then it "rains" onto that particular investment.  As it waters the soil, the enterprise thrives and the return on investment flows back upward, in the same way that rainwater evaporates back up into the atmosphere, and returns to the clouds.  Thus, like the cycle of rainwater, the normal cycle of capital moves through the economy, creating jobs, and returning to the capitalist the profit from the enterprise.

Unfortunately, we are now living through a capital drought.  Since 2007, with the collapse of the housing market, and 2008, with the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros., the engines of pumping capital through its normal cycle--our banks and investment houses--have broken down.  They are struggling through their own period of shortage of capital, as new capital requirements to insure the financial meltdown is not repeated have forced the banks to hoard capital for their own needs.  They are no longer pumping capital into the creation of new businesses, as evidenced by countless anecdotes which lament how difficult it has become for new start-ups to obtain financing from banks.

These new businesses are themselves the engines of capitalism and new job creation.  Studies show that young businesses--new, small businesses--are the ones that create the most new jobs and keep them for as long as the business continues.  This is in sharp contrast to jobs created in larger corporations.  It's clear that large corporations--the Fortune 1000, for instance--hire and fire employees in response to changes in the overall business cycle so that, during the past thirty years, the number of permanent jobs created by large, well-established corporations has remained flat.  In addition, these large corporations have for some time now embarked on a systematic purging of full-time jobs that provide benefits in favor of temporary employment for as many workers as possible with no benefits attached.  And multi-nationals have been moving millions of permanent, full-time jobs off shore.

So the key to creating jobs in this environment is getting capital to entrepreneurs who want to create new businesses and hire new workers.  How to do that when banks are not operating as they should and capital is not flowing properly?  Well, this is not the first time we've faced this problem. 

We faced it previously in the early 1930s, when banks experienced a similar capital drought which brought lending and investment to a halt.  At that time, the Roosevelt administration tried a series of measures to redirect capital from those who held it and weren't deploying it to those who needed and would use it.  These efforts, along with reform of the overall federal tax structure, contributed to a general prosperity and economic expansion that lasted forty years. 

In fact, the sharpest rate of increase in US GDP, and the longest period of low (<5%) unemployment occurred during the thirty year period from 1945 to 1975, when the policies begun during the New Deal supported our post-war expansion.  During that time, the highest federal tax rate on annual income over $ 400,000 was 90%, dropping to 70% through 1975.  The severe concentration of wealth in 1929, which contributed to the stall in capital flow (i.e. the richest 1% of the population at that time earned 29% of all income), was remedied by the imposition of a starkly progressive tax structure.  This moved capital out of the hands of those who warehoused it and into the hands of those who spent and invested it, thus sparking economic expansion.

Today, we know that once again 29% of all income earned flows up to the top 1% of the population.  At the same time, irresponsible tax cuts during the last thirty years have combined to reduce the top federal tax rate to 35%.  This means the rich are keeping more potential capital AFTER paying their taxes, and storing it as they once did in advance of the Great Depression.

The chief reason our economy is not creating jobs is that capital is frozen in the hands of those who will not willingly deploy it.  Unless tax reform forces that capital to be freed and, yes, redistributed downward to those who will use it, high unemployment will continue indefinitely.

In addition, we should be mindful of the contribution to general unemployment made by large domestic and multi-national corporations who no longer pay taxes into the federal treasury.  In 1952, corporations contributed 32% of annual federal dollars received by the treasury.  By 2009, that figure was a paltry 4%.  During the last thirty years, major corporations have been allowed to "opt out" of funding the federal government, which means that they contribute nothing, or very little, to federal job programs.

During the 1930s, as the new progressive tax structure (an idea put forth in 1910 by Theodore Roosevelt) brought in revenues from wealthy individuals and corporations, that money was put into federal jobs programs that immediately employed idle job seekers.  In that way unused capital was redirected to those who needed it, either for a paycheck, or to finance a new enterprise.  We need that sort of redirection of capital today.  Since banks cannot or will not do it, the only pumping station available is the federal government.

Today, the United States government spends at a rate of 28% of national GDP, while the federal treasury receives in tax revenue an amount equal to only 18% of GDP, hence our estimated annual deficits of US $ 1.4 trillion, or ten percent of GDP.

It's clear that the United States needs to increase its tax revenue.  It's equally clear that the places to get these additional tax revenues from are principally wealthy individuals and major corporations. 

Republicans talk about "tax fairness" in terms of "broadening the base" in an effort to sell the idea that, because 47% of all tax filers do not earn enough to pay taxes they are somehow gaining a free ride.  This expansion of the base is inherently unfair and will be counterproductive to creating new jobs or to expanding the economy.  At the same time, Republicans argue spuriously that the rich already pay 43% of all tax revenues, so they should not be asked to contribute more.

Democrats need to answer these ridiculous assertions head-on.  First, the richest 1% may pay 43% of all federal tax revenues, but they also own or control a full 90% of all assets.  That means that the bottom 99% of Americans own or control only 10% of all assets.  How is this possible?  Well, to take one simple example: Warren Buffett owns directly stock held personally that is valued at approximately $ 45 billion.  But he is also chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, which is a holding company for dozens of major corporations and he controls what happens within those businesses.  In that way, in addition to owning his personal wealth, he also controls and directs the assets of dozens of companies and hundreds of thousands of employees.  If Mr. Buffett decides company A needs to trim 1000 jobs to remain profitable, the future ability of those employees to make mortgage payments and hold onto their residences is within the control of Mr. Buffett.

In exchange for wielding that enormous control, he and his peers pay extremely low federal taxes.  Mr. Buffett has said in interviews that his effective tax rate is about 17%, far less than individuals making a scintilla of what he does.  In fact, Mr. Buffett famously analyzed the incomes and tax rates of the Forbes 400 richest Americans during an extended interview on CNBC.  In it, he explained that if you took the combined annual incomes of the 400 richest Americans it showed that each earned an average of $ 352 million, or $ 140 billion cumulatively.  Each also paid an average of 14% to the federal treasury in taxes.  Since we know that the highest federal tax rate was 70% on income over $ 400K as recently as 1975, we can make a simple illustration.  Suppose we increased the federal tax rate for these 400 Americans to 50% per annum.  Under that scenario, they would still keep $ 172 million per year after taxes, but the federal government would receive $ 70 billion in revenue from just these 400 people.  That would be an increase of about $ 45 billion over what it receives now.  And that's just from 400 of the approx. 3.1 million people in the wealthiest 1% of the population.

Let's work out a similar illustration for corporate income taxes.  In 1952, corporations contributed 32% of all federal revenues.  By 2009, that figure was down to 4%.  For the tax year 2009, the federal government collected $ 2.1 trillion in inflows and expended $ 3.5 trillion in outflows, leaving a deficit of $ 1.4 trillion.  If American business--and by that I mean simply the largest ten thousand corporations--had contributed to the federal treasury at a rate equal to 20% of federal revenues instead of only 4%, that difference would have added approx. $ 336 billion to federal inflows, from only 10,000 of the more than 9 million US businesses.

The point of this is that Democrats need to get behind the tax reform argument and take it to the American people.  The Republicans have already staked out their position on the issue: they want to broaden the base and have people who don't have money to pay their bills now pay more in taxes.  That is a sure recipe for making our economic malady worse.

Democrats should point out that TAX POLICY IS ABOUT HOW MUCH YOU KEEP AFTER YOU PAY YOUR TAX, NOT HOW MUCH YOU PAY.  By that standard, the rich are severely undertaxed, and major corporations such as GE, ExxonMobil, and the like are getting a free ride at the expense of the American people.  Sure GE and ExxonMobil may pay millions in taxes each year, but those taxes are paid to foreign countries, not to the US treasury.  For every dollar they pay to a foreign jurisdiction these multi-national companies receive a tax credit toward their US tax bill.  The result is they pay no US taxes at all, effectively opting out of supporting the federal government. 

Republicans want to focus on how much the wealthy already pay. They argue that the rich are job creators.  They claim that giant multi-national corporations are essential to America's prosperity, just as they continue to argue that large, multi-national banks and brokerage houses are essential to America's ability to compete financially. 

Democrats need to focus on how little the wealthy pay now versus historical norms, and how much they keep now after they pay these abnormally low taxes.  They need to illustrate clearly how our current low-rate tax policy has destroyed our economy and the net worth of the middle class during the last thirty years and to contrast these recent conditions which have led to today's economic malaise with the previous period (1945 - 1975) and its conditions which supported enormous economic expansion and upward mobility for the middle class.

Democrats also need to make the case clearly that tax reform and the imposition of higher effective rates for wealthy individuals and corporations will result directly in the creation of millions of new American jobs, a return to national economic growth and, most importantly (for this was a major contribution to the 1930s Depression as well as to our own recent financial meltdown), a reduction in the wealth gap between the richest 1% of the population and everyone else.  History shows that when the concentration of wealth becomes severely unbalanced toward the few and at the expense of the many, the economy breaks down, corruption throughout society increases, and high unemployment ensues.  It's also when political instability follows. A progressive tax structure works to mitigate such anti-capitalist, anti-democratic conditions.

Finally, Democrats must address the frequent Republican charge that increasing taxes on the rich and widening the progressive tax structure is "class warfare" and "redistribution of wealth."  Democrats must meet this head-on by explaining that effective tax policy is ALWAYS about two things:  1) funding the operations of government, and  2) insuring that the wealth gap between rich and poor does not increase to levels that threaten the free flow of capital and weaken our democratic institutions.  As I said, we are suffering through a capital drought, and that stagnation of capital flows is threatening every institution in our society--our legal system, our educational system, our infrastructure, and our social safety net--through lack of funding as well as the sudden overall self-doubt and questioning about whether we need these essential services.

Progressive tax policy is about supporting capitalism and the creation of new enterprises while at the same time funding our strong legal system, our education system, and our physical infrastructure.  The support of these institutions through tax revenue, along with the social safety net we've developed to support our human capital, is what made the American economy the unquestioned leader of the world during the post-war years.  It brought our middle class the highest standard of living in the history of the world.  It brought us a social and political system that was the envy of the world.  We have the ability to regain it if we only exercise our will to do so.

In closing, I'd like to say something about the American dollar.  For several years now, coinciding with the initiation of continuous federal spending deficits begun at the outset of the George W. Bush administration, the dollar has been falling steadily against other world currencies, especially those of Europe and the United Kingdom.  Clearly, this is a direct result of the US governments inability to bring its tax revenues in line with outflows. It's also part of the Federal Reserve strategy to pay down US foreign debt with inflated dollars.  It's a strategy to use when you cannot increase revenues to pay your debt--you deflate the currency and repay your lender with dollars worth increasingly less and less.  It's a dishonorable way to meet our obligations.

It's also a race to the bottom, as our trading partners do the same in response.  We devalue our currency, they devalue theirs, and all of us complain continuously about countries who let their currencies slide. 

If we were able to increase federal inflows to, say, 30% of GDP and close down annual deficits to zero, we would see a corresponding jump in the value of the US dollar immediately.  It has happened before, quite recently:  In 1983, Congress and the Reagan administration agreed on tax reform that brought more revenue into the federal treasury and reduced what had been a rising annual deficit.  The US dollar shot up in value versus other currencies and the spending power of all Americans grew.  At the same time our economy strengthened and unemployment came down.  That is another benefit of raising federal revenues: a stronger US dollar.  A return to fiscal, as well as monetary responsibility.  An honorable way for America to pay down its debt, turn away from being the world's largest debtor and return, someday in the future, to being the world's largest creditor.

Democrats can lead us to this renewed prosperity, but only if our leaders and candidates understand and can explain the important financial issues of our time.  Our political discourse today is dominated by political pronouncements with few substantive explanations of financial facts and imperatives.  On the other side, the Republicans spew political propaganda and factually incorrect economic theory, yet they are perceived, incredibly, as better financial managers than the Democrats.  This must change.  We cannot, we must not allow anyone to continue to believe that Democrats are in any way inferior to Republicans when it comes to managing our nation's finances.  The simple truth is that we are miles ahead of them as responsible managers of our nation's assets, as fiscal and monetary leaders, as pro-democracy capitalists.  It has been so throughout our history.  We must do a much better job of communicating that to the American public.

Vincent Crapelli

Red Bank, New Jersey

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