A Tale of Two Parties Going in Opposite Directions

The United States is a dynamic country with a constantly changing population, culture, and economy. Throughout the nation's history this dynamism has forced the two political parties to either embrace or resist the changes occurring around them. Historically, neither party has had a monopoly on making wise choices. In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, for example, it was the Republican Party that better adapted to a fully industrialized country, one that had largely left its agrarian past behind. In the 1930s, it was the Democratic Party that endorsed activist government that enabled everyday Americans to better cope with the rough edges of an industrial economy.

But America-- as well as the two political parties-- does not stand still. Several recent surveys, including one commissioned by NDN, paint a picture of a Republican Party appealing to an ever more narrow and aging base and a Democratic Party developing a voter coalition that reflects the more diverse and progressive American electorate of the 21st Century.  

The Tea Party Movement Does Not Represent America

An early April New York Times/CBS News national survey contained a subsample of nearly 900 Tea Party supporters permitting a detailed comparison of those who endorse that movement with the American electorate as a whole. A number of observers have already commented on the poll. For example, in a balanced interpretation, Pew's Andrew Kohut suggests that an association with the Tea Party movement might provide short-term benefit to the Republican Party, but hurt it in the long run. In a strangely odd misreading of the data, former Bill Clinton pollster, Doug Schoen, who along with Jimmy Carter's pollster, Pat Caddell, advised congressional Democrats not to pass health care reform, described the Tea Partiers as politically "diverse" and "close to the demographics of the American people."

But even a cursory reading of the New York Times/CBS News poll clearly indicates that Tea Party supporters are distinctive demographically, have sharply different perceptions of and attitudes toward politics than most other voters and are strongly oriented to the Republican Party. Given the alacrity with which most Republican politicians (with the possible exception of Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown) are rushing to get in front of Tea Party rallies and embrace Tea Party ideas, it's not too much to say that the Tea Party movement has literally become the face of the GOP.

  • Demographics. As the table below indicates both Tea Party supporters and Republican identifiers are disproportionately male, older, and white compared with the U.S. electorate overall. In fact, Doug Schoen to the contrary, Tea Partiers are, if anything, less diverse than even rank and file Republicans. Both groups are clearly much less diverse and reflective of the American electorate as it is now and as it will increasingly be than are Democratic identifiers.

 

U.S. Electorate^

Tea Party Supporters*

Republican Identifiers^

Democratic Identifiers^

Gender

 

 

 

 

Male

49%

59%

56%

45%

Female

51%

41%

44%

55%

Age

 

 

 

 

18-28

20%

7%

14%

21%

29-45

31%

16%

26%

32%

46-64

32%

46%

35%

32%

65+

17%

29%

25%

15%

Ethnicity

 

 

 

 

White

77%

89%

89%

69%

African-American

7%

1%

2%

14%

Hispanic

9%

3%

6%

11%

Asian

4%

1%

3%

5%

Sources: *=New York Times/CBS News survey, April 2010. ^=NDN survey, February 2010.

  • Party ID and Ideological Identification. According to the New York Times/CBS News poll a majority of Tea Partiers identifies as Republicans, while around a third say they are independents and a scant one in twenty claim to be Democrats. Tea Party supporters identify as Republicans at about twice the rate as the overall electorate (54% vs. 28%) while only a sixth as many (5% vs. 31%) say they are Democrats. And, while only a third of all registered voters (34%) label themselves as conservatives, nearly three-quarters (73%) of Tea Partiers do.
  • Perceptions of Political Figures. Given their partisan and ideological preferences it is not surprising that Tea Party supporters are far less positive about Democratic politicians and far more positive about Republicans than is the American electorate overall.

 

U.S. Electorate*

Tea Party Supporters*

Approve of Barack Obama job performance

50%

7%

Favorable opinion of Barack Obama

43%

7%

Obama understands needs and problems of people like you

58%

24%

Obama shares values most Americans try to live by

57%

20%

Favorable opinion of George W. Bush

27%

57%

Favorable opinion of Sarah Palin

30%

66%

Think Sarah Palin has ability to be effective President

26%

40%

* Source=New York Times/CBS News survey, April 2010.

  • Attitudes on Political Issues. Tea Party supporters differ substantially from the entire U.S. electorate across a range of issues. In particular, Tea Partiers are far more opposed to using government to confront and attempt to resolve the problems facing America. For example, while as the following table indicates, a majority of Americans favors the Federal Government spending money to create jobs, even if this increases the budget deficit, more than three-quarters of Tea Party supporters believe that the government should not spend money on jobs, but should instead focus on deficit reduction.

 

U.S. Electorate*

Tea Party Supporters*

Spend to create jobs even if increases deficit

50%

17%

Focus on reducing deficit rather than job creation

42%

76%

DK/NA

7%

7%

*Source=New York Times/CBS News survey, April 2010

Along these lines, a majority of the electorate believes that President Obama has expanded the role of government to about the right degree (36%) or even not enough (18%) to solve the economic problems facing the country. By contrast, virtually all Tea Party supporters (89%) believe that the president has expanded the government too much.

And, on the issue that has energized the Tea Party movement more than any other, a plurality of the electorate (49%) now agrees with the provision in the recently enacted health care reform legislation requiring all Americans to have health insurance as long as the federal government provides financial help to those who cannot afford it. In contrast, 85 percent of Tea Partiers are opposed. Similarly, a majority of all voters (54%) believes it is a good idea to raise income taxes on those making more than $250,000 a year to help provide health insurance for those who do not already have it. Eight in ten Tea Party supporters are against this.

  • Media Usage. Finally, to help shape their world view, Tea Partiers utilize very different sources for political information and have distinctive attitudes toward the media and media personalities than does the electorate overall.

 

U.S. Electorate*

Tea Party Supporters*

Watch Fox News Channel most for information about politics

23%

63%

Believe shows hosted by people like Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity are more news than entertainment

24%

53%

Favorable attitude toward Glenn Beck

18%

59%

The Democrats are in Stronger Position Since Passage of Health Care Reform

While the GOP has been affixing itself ever more closely to the Tea Party movement, the position of the Democratic Party has actually strengthened since the passage of health care reform in late March, while that of the Tea Party movement and politicians associated with hit have actually softened somewhat as more people came to learn and form opinions about it.

A mid-April CNN Opinion Research poll (pdf) indicated that favorable evaluations of President Barack Obama held steady at 57 percent and those of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid rose by eight and six percentage points respectively from what they had been about two months previously. By contrast, favorable ratings of Sarah Palin, the Republican perhaps most strongly identified with the Tea Party movement, dropped from 46 percent in December 2009 and 43 percent in January 2010 to 39 percent in April. Her unfavorable evaluations rose by nine points (from 46% to 55%) over the same period. In addition, while positive opinions of the Tea Party movement increased by five points (from 33% to 38%) since January, negative attitudes rose by 10 points (from 26% to 36%).

Obama Leads All Potential 2012 Republican Opponents

Also, according to the CNN survey, President Obama holds a clear lead among registered voters over four potential Republican challengers to his 2012 reelection bid-Mitt Romney (53% vs. 45%); Mike Huckabee (54% vs. 45%); Sarah Palin (55% vs. 42%); and, Newt Gingrich (55% vs. 43%). His margin against each Republican actually slightly exceeds his 2008 popular vote lead over John McCain (53% vs. 46%), indicating that in spite of all the turmoil and rancor of the first year of his presidency, Barack Obama retains as strong a position with the electorate as when he won the White House.

Democrats Lead in CNN Generic Ballot for First Time in 2010

But, the president's reelection campaign is still more than two years away. Of more immediate relevance, the Democratic Party leads among registered voters on the 2010 CNN/Opinion Research generic congressional ballot for the first time this year.

 

Democratic Candidate

Republican Candidate

Neither

No Opinion

April 9-11

50%

46%

4%

1%

March 25-28

45%

49%

4%

2%

March 19-21

45%

48%

5%

2%

February 12-15

45%

47%

6%

2%

January 8-10

45%

48%

6%

1%

"Enthusiasm Gap" Has Narrowed Since Passage of Health Care Reform

Even more important, after languishing for months, as indicated in the following table drawn from the Daily Kos weekly tracking survey, the political enthusiasm and intensity of Democratic identifiers and the groups that together comprise the emerging 21st Century Democratic coalition rose sharply in the wake of the enactment of health care and student loan reform legislation.

 

Definitely/likely to vote

March 8-11

Definitely/likely to vote

April 5-8

Percentage Point Increase

Democratic identifiers

40%

61%

21%

Women

41%

59%

18%

18-29 year olds

34%

46%

12%

African-Americans

29%

46%

17%

Hispanics

32%

47%

15%

Residents of Northeast

41%

60%

19%

Residents of West

42%

62%

20%

In early March, Republican identifiers were far more likely to vote than Democrats (51% vs. 40%). On month later, what had been an 11-percentage point "enthusiasm gap" separating Republican from Democratic identifiers had narrowed to four points (63% vs. 59%). In the most recent Daily Kos poll it widened again to eight points (69% vs. 61%). Still, the increased intensity of Democratic voters coupled with the Democratic Party's party identification advantage over the Republicans (47% vs. 34% in the NDN survey) puts the Democrats in better position to compete effectively this November than they were just a month ago.

The lesson from this is clear. Like any majority political party, the Democratic Party will be rewarded by those who identify with and vote for it when it governs like the majority party that it is. The next step for congressional Democrats is to adopt financial institution reform over the persistent opposition of the GOP leadership and its Tea Party base. By so doing, the Democrats will continue to turn on its head the admonition that has so often been a part of these blogs: "if you use it, you won't lose it."