Reviewing Obama at 1,000 Days

Twice in the last few weeks I've debated the Obama record on Fox News (here and here).  In prepping for the segments it forced me to think through how the President is going to make his case in what is likely to be a very tough re-election next year.  Here is my initial cut:

Foreign Policy - Caught Osama Bin Laden, dismantled global terror networks, helped nurture the historic democratization of the Middle East and North Africa, ended the war in Iraq, put human rights and the dignity of every day people at the center of US foreign policy again.

Domestic Policy - Improved k-12 education and community college programs, made banks and the health care systems much more consumer friendly, made the border region safer and the immigration system better. 

Economic Policy - Stimulus prevented financial collapse and depression and led to current modest recovery, saved auto industry, modernized infrastructure across the country, made significant investments in future technology which will pay off in coming years, begun the process of reigning in the explosive growth of health care costs (bending the cost curve), is fighting for smart measures to address current economic conditions and in the medium and long term address the deficit. 

(Feel free to add things I left out, or challenge one of these).  In these segments the Republican attack focused on the obvious play to go - the too high unemployment rate, the additional debt incured, the misery many people feel.  There is no doubt that the President, while having done a great deal for the US these last three years, hasn't done enough in the one area that matters most - the struggle of everyday people. 

But when you think about how this debate is going to play out over the next 13 months there is a clear opening for Obama here.  His successes are not well understood by the public, and will become more so in the coming campaign; the public still blames the Bush era much more than the Obama era for our current economic troubles (and rightly so - the core econ problems we face today all began before Obama took office); and the President has a much more intelligent plan for what to do now given where we are. His current economic plan (approved by two-thirds of the public) can be made much stronger in the months ahead with the addition of a much more serious effort to reverse the decline in housing prices and provide modern tech skills to the current workforce.

As you listen to Megyn Kelly recite the negative stats in the second clip I kept thinking - doesn't everyone know this already? Aren't people aware of how bad things are? If the Republicans plan on spending $500 million attacking Obama for the current economic mess I think they will be wasting their money - middle class folks are already deeply in touch with how bad things are, and most don't blame Obama.  They may be disappointed in his response to date, but what they are looking for is a plan to make things better. And this is where the lack of any serious plan from the Republicans is a major problem for them going forward. The contrast the President began setting up in his State of the Union address this year, and has reinforced in the recent fall debate over his jobs plan, of his modern/effective plan vs the GOP's non-plan and economic incoherence is a very strong positioning on the issue which matters most to voters.

According to this week's WSJ/MSNBC poll President Obama, despite all the economic bad news, leads Mitt Romney and a generic Republican by 2 points.  Unless the economy gets much worse in the next 13 months I just don't think the Republicans will be able to drive Obama's negatives much higher than they are now - the bad economy is already baked into Obama's approval rating.  He, on the other hand, has a better record these past three years than most realize, and has a far superior plan to deal with the current set of economic conditions in the country.   The Republican frontrunner Mitt Romney is struggling to gain acceptance with current GOP primary voters, and will be easily characterized next year as one of those economic and political eilites who have done so much to get the country into the mess it is in today. 

At 1,000 days into the first term, and 13 months to go to the 2012 elections, things could be a lot better for President Obama, obviously, but they could also be a whole lot worse.  I think he is going to have a good case to make for his Presidency next year, and will be a much stronger candidate than many in the chattering classes believe today.  I think the President is stronger than the current conventional wisdom holds, the GOP weaker.  Where we are 13 months from now nobody knows but in reviewing the state of Obama in October 2011 I think the guy has a very decent shot at getting re-elected next year and being viewed by history as a successful American President in a time of great struggle for the nation.

Feedback welcome.