Further Evidence National Landscape Is Tilting Towards Dems, Obama

Submitted by Simon Rosenberg on 12/22/11

As readers of this blog now I've been making the argument now for several weeks that there was a growing body of evidence that the national political landscape had moved on from the conditions which created the GOP rout in 2010 towards a new one much more favorable to Barack Obama and the Democrats. See this round up of my recent analyses, and this video of me from last Friday reviewing the data. At the core of this analysis is that the country does not see what is going on now as a "pox on both your houses;" the public doesn't blame both parties equally for what has gone wrong, and do not see them equally incapable of making things better; and that the Democrats are seen in a much more favorable light than the Republicans,

In that analysis you will also find that it is no longer a forgone conclusion that the Senate flips from Dem to GOP, and I would add that given the events of recent days and the GOP's very high negatives the House has to be considered in play next year.

This week we saw further evidence of this changed landscape. National CNN and Wash Post/ABC polls show Barack Obama's favorability rating making a significant upward jump. The CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Obama in the 50s against all GOP opponents, an important milestone for a President many have described as weak, in danger. Jobless claims were down again today, providing further evidence the economy is improving, slowly. And we know the GOP has bungled the payroll tax debate, big time.

The Republican Party enters 2012 having badly misplayed a strong hand this year; without a strong, unifying Presidential candidate on the horizon; truly terrible favorability numbers; and one thing I think that will become more clear over time - no obvious path for how to get back in the game on economic and security matters.

I am running out of time, so I will come back to this last point in the next few days. But I leave you with two things - a new op-ed by Mitt Romney this week which, honestly, I felt was truly out to lunch and so far from where the modern GOP has to go to win next year; and this recent essay of mine which argues Obama will have a much stronger case to make for his re-election next year than conventional wisdom holds.

Happy Holidays all, and to a better year in 2012.

Simon Rosenberg's blog
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Image Credit: Dana Edelson/NBCDid you catch Saturday Night Live this past weekend? What a display of graceful aging and show-biz longevity! Oh yeah, and Betty White wasn’t bad, either.

I kid because I love. Jay-Z is hardly elderly, but rap is for the most part a young man’s game. His 40 years feel just shy of White’s 88 in hip-hop terms. That makes performances like the first one he gave on this week’s SNL all the more impressive. How is it that a guy who’s already retired and un-retired once, a dude who’s voyaged to the corporate boardroom and back,volks, has so much more stage presence and vitality than any other rapper alive?

Jay-Z’s first SNL number was an abbreviated version of what he’s been doing in concert lately: a killer medley of hits, kicking off with 2003′s undeniable “P.S.A.” and making his way to “99 Problems” and “Empire State of Mind” (a duet with singer Bridget Kelly), with snippets of “On to the Next One” and “’03 Bonnie & Clyde” thrown in to tease us. Consider how many SNL musical guests struggle to make even one song work on live TV. Jay made it look easy, conveying each lyric with flawless force. The man is a master. I wish he could have kept the medley going for another ten minutes.

Later in the show, however, Jay-Z returned with “Young Forever.” Talk about a letdown. At Coachella last month, Jay managed to save this otherwise treacly tune by bringing out Beyoncé to sing the Alphaville-sampling hook. On record and on SNL, that chorus was handled by wannabe soul man Mr. Hudson, who, let’s just say, is no Beyoncé. The English crooner sounded uncomfortably hoarse; every time that hook came around, he’d reliably miss one big note in particular. The only thing that partially redeemed this snooze was when Jay-Z sweetly dedicated the song to “the most incredible Betty White.”

But, hey, that medley was really awesome! What did you think of Jay-Z on Saturday Night Live? Can you recall ever seeing such a gap in quality between a musical guest’s first and second performances of the night?

(Follow the Music Mix on Twitter: @EWMusicMix.)

More from EW.com’s Music Mix:

Who was that singing with Jay-Z on Saturday Night Live? Meet Bridget Kelly
Tim McGraw, Faith Hill organize “Nashville Rising” flood benefit show

Bassist Carlos Dengler leaves Interpol

Katy Perry’s “California Gurls”: The first mega-smash of the summer?

Muse announced as first artists on upcoming ‘Twilight: Eclipse’ soundtrack; more to come

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