Further Evidence National Landscape Is Tilting Towards Dems, Obama

As readers of this blog now I've been making the argument now for several weeks that there was a growing body of evidence that the national political landscape had moved on from the conditions which created the GOP rout in 2010 towards a new one much more favorable to Barack Obama and the Democrats.  See this round up of my recent analyses, and this video of me from last Friday reviewing the data. At the core of this analysis is that the country does not see what is going on now as a "pox on both your houses;" the public doesn't blame both parties equally for what has gone wrong, and do not see them equally incapable of making things better; and that the Democrats are seen in a much more favorable light than the Republicans,

In that analysis you will also find that it is no longer a forgone conclusion that the Senate flips from Dem to GOP, and I would add that given the events of recent days and the GOP's very high negatives the House has to be considered in play next year.

This week we saw further evidence of this changed landscape. National CNN and Wash Post/ABC polls show Barack Obama's favorability rating making a significant upward jump.  The CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Obama in the 50s against all GOP opponents, an important milestone for a President many have described as weak, in danger.  Jobless claims were down again today, providing further evidence the economy is improving, slowly.  And we know the GOP has bungled the payroll tax debate, big time. 

The Republican Party enters 2012 having badly misplayed a strong hand this year; without a strong, unifying Presidential candidate on the horizon; truly terrible favorability numbers; and one thing I think that will become more clear over time - no obvious path for how to get back in the game on economic and security matters. 

I am running out of time, so I will come back to this last point in the next few days.  But I leave you with two things - a new op-ed by Mitt Romney this week which, honestly, I felt was truly out to lunch and so far from where the modern GOP has to go to win next year; and this recent essay of mine which argues Obama will have a much stronger case to make for his re-election next year than conventional wisdom holds. 

Happy Holidays all, and to a better year in 2012.