New NBC/WSJ Poll Shows Natl Landscape Tilting Towards the Dems, "GOP Brand Problem"

For the past few months I've been citing data showing that the national political landscape was changing, and a much more favorable 2012 environment was developing for the Democrats.  This week there was further confirmation of this trend in the newly released NBC/WSJ poll.  

From the poll:

- Right Track/Wrong Track is now 30/61, 26 points better than in October.

- Obama's approval is net positive, 48/46, for the first time since last summer. 

- Obama's handling of the economy is now 45/50, 13 points better than October.

But the really interesting data is the comparison of where the two parties and their candidates stand.  As the poll suggests the GOP is facing a significant structural challenge in 2012.

- Obama leads Romney 49/43, which is the same margin in his landslide win in 2008.  Against Gingrich and and Santorum Obama is way over 50, and ahead by more than 10 points. In a three way with Paul and Romney Obama wins 45/32/18.

- Dem Party favorability is 38/39, GOP 31/44.  This is a 15 point differential in basic favorability.

- Obama's favorability is 50/39, Romney 31/36, Gingrich 26/48, Santorum 26/27.  In the WaPo/ABC poll from earlier this week it was

- The Congressional generic is 47/41 for the Dems, a 4 point shift towards the Dems since December, and the best showing for the Dems in this poll since April of 2009. 

- Party ID is 44D/37R, a margin consistent with other data here.

- In the Republican Primary Gingrich leads Romney 37/28, and in a two way, 52/39.  Gingrich has significant challenges in the general election, but Mitt Romney is still after 5 years of running for President struggling to win over Republicans. 

In the article describing the poll, the authors refered to this batch of data as the "GOP Brand Problem." 

I have no doubt that is going to be a close election this fall.  But elections take on structures each year.  And while this has been a volatile period, there is a 2012 structure emerging, some basic set of realities which are settling in.  The structure of 2012 is much more favorable to the President, and the Democrats, than conventional wisdom holds. There is also very strong evidence that the nation is not blaming both parties equally for our challenges, an argument heard far too often in the mainstream media these days and one that is simply not backed up by data.