Some Initial Thoughts About The First Presidential Debate

A First Look For Many Voters - The impact of the debate last night on public opinion might end up being greater than its impact on the election itself.   Because of the highly targeted nature of the 2012 election, where only a small number of states are experiencing the campaign, more than the usual number of voters checked into the campaign last night for the first time.  These voters have far less information about Mitt Romney than those who have seen the Obama ad campaigns in the battlegrounds, and thus would be more easily moved by Romney's strong performance last night than the voters with a much more detailed understanding of his candidacy.  So I could imagine that the debate could produce a significant shift - 2/3 points - in the non-battleground states and in perhaps overall electorate but a much smaller shift in the battlegrounds where Obama retains a substantial lead.  This national shift was likely to come any way this October as Romney was consistently polling 2-3 points below 47% in recent weeks, a number which has to be considered his November floor.

For team Obama, I think this discrepancy between what voters in the battleground know and what everyone else knows is both a blessing and a curse.  I still think Obama is likley to win this fall, but he needs to be the President of the entire country not just nine states.  It is important for the Obama campaign to use these remaining debates, and perhaps some limited national advertising, to make their case for a second term agenda and not just go for the "win."  If the country, and the President, is to have a successful second term, President Obama has to win the economic debate with the Republicans this fall, giving him a mandate to pursue his agenda and perhaps forcing the Republicans to reconsider their current obstructionism in Washington.  The President's campaign is winning the election in the nine states, but he now needs to make sure he wins it in the rest of the country too or his second term could move to lame duck status much quicker than is good for him or the nation. 

Romney's Lying - The Obama campaign is already all over this subject this morning but I still maintain that no candidate in modern American history lies as easily about truly consequential things as Mitt Romney.  I have written about this before and why I think it is so.  To me the most extraordinary moments in the debate were those where Romney tried to explain how his fiscal plans would not favor the rich; would not add to the deficit; would not gut social programs like education; and would bring the budget into balance.  I cannot imagine a bigger and more consequential set of lies about truly important things than these repeated statements last night.  It is truly unbelievable, and says so much about the character of this man who wants to be our next President (and who weirdly insulted his own sons last night).

As Ron Brownstein recently noted, the rightward lurch of Romney in the GOP primaries was going to be a huge problem in the general election.  So, in order to deal with the unpopularity of their arguments, we saw, as promised, the Etch-A-Sketch candidate last night, one totally disconnected from reality and his own campaign so far.  It was, my friends, a bit shocking and should be central to the after debate analysis these next few weeks (TNR's Jonathan Cohn also has a good take on this).

Strong Leader/Weak Leader - I think the overall movement in the debate last night was most importantly on the strong leader/weak leader dimension, a way of understanding Presidential politics more traditionally important to Republicans than Democrats. Romney looked strong, President Obama didn't.  Romney put some spirited but ephermeral lipstick on his policy pig, and Obama got lost in the weeds.  But on a fundamental level I don't think a major new understanding was reached about the philosophy or approach of the two candidates last night. Romney's distortations and lies will be addressed by Obama in the coming debates and ads in the battlegrounds.  His somewhat ridiculous answers to many of the questions last night revealed a weakness to be exploited not a strength to be capitalized on.  But how President Obama deals with the strong leader/weak leader dimension successfully exploited by Romney last night, particularly as a foreign policy debate looms, may be the most important challenge ahead for the President, and one he has to address head on or risk letting this election slip from his grasp. 

The Need for A National Popular Vote - This election is reinforcing the need to scrap the anachronistic Electoral College.  How at odds with the idea of representative government and a healthy democracy is a national election where 80 plus percent of the voters have no say and do not get to meaningful participate in the campaign itself? By its nature this kind of system reduces the legitimacy of the one elected, regardless of the popular vote or Electoral College margin.  

One of the great openings for the center-left in the coming years is to promote large scale modernization and reform of our democracy itself, a subject NDN convened a conference on at Tufts University this spring.  And to learn more about one effort which has a chance of making a national popular vote happen in the not so distant future visit this site.

Fri Update - First post debate poll from Reuters/Ipsos much more positive for Obama than conventional wisdom right now.  As I wrote above, we should expect movement for Romney now as he is still consolidating his base.  His movement will come from weakness - underperformance with GOPers prior to the debate - rather than a new structural strenght in the race.  Possible he starts to gain beyond his 47% floor, pulling undecideds and Obama voters, but there just isnt great evidence of this yet in any of the post debate surveys. 

And here is video of me discussing all this on Fox yesterday.

Wed Update - Well, national polls do now show powerful movement for Romney since the debate.  As TNR's Nate Cohn argues this morning we haven't seen as much movement - yet - in the battlegrounds, something I thought might be possible.  Nate Silver also has an extensive new analysis up this morning.

Thur Update -Slew of state polls out this am from NYTimes/CBS and NBC/WSJ Marist.  These new polls show much the race has changed, how much ground Romney has gained despite an improving economy and Obama's improving and strong approval ratings.  My conclusion this am is that Obama is still winning, but Romney had made it a race.