Recent Analysis: Egypt, Syria, and Iran

Dramatic changes have been taking place in the Middle East over the last few weeks and NDN's MENA Initiative has gathered together some of their latest analysis to help our community better understand the challenges and opportunities of the unfolding events in Egypt, Iran, and Syria. You can stay up to date on all of these developments at the MENA Initiative website, www.menaprogram.org

A Critical Crossroads in Egypt

“When Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns meets with Egyptian officials today, for the first time since President Morsi was deposed, he should strongly encourage the transitional government to avoid prosecuting or persecuting the ousted leader and his allies. While the Muslim Brotherhood’s government managed to alienate much of the population through managerial incompetence and autocratic tendencies, they were serving under the legitimate authority of popular elections.

The United States has important regional interests in the stability of Egypt, but American policy needs to avoid taking sides with specific political actors. Instead, the U.S. should make it clear that our allies and recipients of large aid packages are expected to be invested in the processes, values, and institutions of inclusive democracy.  We have seen over the last several years that threats to withhold military assistance are seen in Cairo as empty threats and insufficient motivation to change policy or approach. This sticks American policymakers with the bill while denying them any of the leverage that is supposed to accompany it. Burns should inform the Egyptian government that, as mandated by U.S. law, aid will be temporarily suspended until a democratically elected government is returned to power. The United States should take this opportunity to continue working on the bilateral relationship – one that is marred by a history of suspicion and ambivalence – while expanding the scope of stakeholders that the U.S. government engages with. If we aspire to see this “revolution reboot” result in a more open, democratic, and inclusive Egypt, we need to learn the lessons of the last 18 months, speaking out vocally for U.S. values and backing it up with consistent actions.” Brad Bosserman, 7/18/2013

"In Egypt, a new transitional government is taking shape amidst clashes between the Egyptian Army and the Muslim Brotherhood. Response in Washington has been mixed, with Sen. McCain calling for suspending U.S. aid in light of the military-led ouster of President Morsi. The major questions that will determine the immediate and medium-term implications of these events involve the details, time table, and process for holding new parliamentary elections and the amending of the currently suspended constitution. Also crucial will be addressing the future of the Muslim Brotherhood. After being forced out of the formal political process and having their media networks shut down by the military, the U.S. should use its leverage to discourage the prosecution of the Brotherhood, push for building institutions and norms that are inclusive and give voice to all Egyptian constituencies, and encourage the government to craft a means of formal engagement with the Brotherhood that will be essential in dissuading them and their regional allies from pursuing a path of violent opposition." Brad Bosserman, July 8, 2013

"Millions of Egyptians took the streets over the weekend in much-anticipated protests against President Morsi. The largely peaceful demonstrations reveal a deep and broad "legitimacy deficit" for a government that was elected democratically, but has consistently pursued non-inclusive policies designed to consolidate power in the hands of Morsi and his allies. The everyday Egyptians taking part in these protests feel alienated by the ruling government and the heavily criticized constitutional process that followed. But while the opposition may appear unified from 30,000 feet, there remain deep ideological, political, and strategic cleavages among these anti-Morsi groups. The situation on the ground is still unfolding, but as of Monday afternoon, the Egyptian military had issued an ultimatum, threatening to intervene in 48 hours if the situation is not resolved. The U.S. has vital strategic interests in seeing a stable, secure, and democratic Egypt and American policymakers should speak out in favor of institutions and processes that respect the will and views of the Egyptian public. A military coup seems very unlikely to be a positive development, but neither does a continued consolidation of power by Morsi . If a third way is to emerge, the responsibility lies with key Egyptian opposition figures to coalesce around a shared goal and vision for the country, at least in the short term, which can provide a legitimate alternative." Brad Bosserman, July 1, 2013

A New President of the Syria Opposition

"The Syrian National Coalition met in Istanbul over the weekend and elected Ahmad Jarba as their new President. The move represents a victory for the Saudi-aligned factions within the rebel coalition and Jarba declared that the SNC would not attend the proposed peace conference in Geneva until major military support was secured. As the Assad regime continues to make headway on the ground, it is unclear how the level of aid that is currently being supplied by the U.S. and Gulf allies will be able to turn the tide in favor of the rebels or even provide enough leverage to extract any real concessions from Assad."  Brad Bosserman, July 8, 2013

Webcast: Brad Bosserman hosted a conversation with three leading experts.

http://www.spreecast.com/events/mena-chat-us-policy-toward-syria

Shadi Hamid from the Brookings Institution and Research Director of the Brookings Doha Center.

Yisser Bittar from the Syrian American Council.

Christy Delafield from the Washington office of the Syrian Opposition Coalition.

 

A New President in Iran

"The election of Hassan Rouhani as the next president of Iran is a positive development and represents an opportunity for reform as well as renewed and rational engagement with the west. While it would be naïve to expect any sudden policy shifts from a regime still headed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Rouhani ran on a platform of reform that emphasized not only domestic economic issues, but also his goal of working toward normalizing relations with the international community and creating an environment in which sanctions can be gradually rolled back.

U.S. relations with Iran should continue to be driven by our regional interests and by ensuring the security of our allies. It should be understood, however, that the current policy of sanctions and isolation are not policy goals in and of themselves. American interests will be best served by a more democratic, open, and responsible Iran that respects international norms and laws. If President-Elect Rouhani wishes to normalize Iran's relationship with the United States and our allies, they will need to bring their nuclear program under transparent monitoring and cease supporting regional terrorism and instability through the forces they control both directly and by proxy.

It is worth noting that Mr. Rouhani was instrumental in negotiating the 2003 Sa'dabad Agreement, in which Iran agreed to suspend nuclear enrichment. Though this deal eventually collapsed, the fact that he has demonstrated a willingness to constrain the Iranian nuclear program should be viewed as a possible opening for new talks. While it will take time for the President-Elect to bring new and hopefully reform-minded personnel into the bureaucracy, the Iranian people have clearly rejected the status quo and spoken out for change. The United States should seize this opportunity to develop a diplomatic relationship with the new President and deploy a strategy designed to encourage Iran to become a more open and responsible member of the global community. Brad Bosserman, June 17, 2013