NDN Blog

Today the Cager-in-Chief offered his picks for the NCAA Tournament which begins tomorrow at arenas around the country.  President Barack Obama was as calculating with his selections for the Final Four as he was with his cabinet picks suggesting at one point that he liked the University of Maryland but just not to get to the Sweet Sixteen.  Let's just hope the Memphis Tigers don't have any tax issues.  One of his "nominees" for the Final Four is sure to attract some attention here at NDN as he selected DeJuan Blair and the Pittsburgh Panthers to advance to Detroit after beating second seed Duke. To see the president make his selections check out the video from Andy Katz of ESPN.

Dan Rooney, the convivial owner and chairman of the six-time Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers, member of the Professional Football Hall of Fame, pioneer of race in professional sports, and Commander of the British Empire (Honorary) can add to his impressive resume this morning as Barack Obama announced his intent to send him back to his ancestral home as the Ambassador to The Republic of Ireland.

President Obama said, “I am honored and grateful that such a dedicated and accomplished individual has agreed to serve as the representative of the United States to the Irish people.  Dan Rooney is an unwavering supporter of Irish peace, culture, and education, and I have every confidence that he and Secretary Clinton will ensure America’s continued close and unique partnership with Ireland in the years ahead.” 

Ambassador designate Rooney brings with him a lifetime of experience on and off the gridiron.  To go along with his record 6 super bowl rings, 7 AFC championships, and 14 conference championships, Rooney has been a long-time steward of western Pennsylvania and Ireland.  He has been a part of the Irish peace process since the Steelers began their dominance in the early 1970s, helping create the American Ireland Fund. Additionally, Rooney began funding the annual prize for Irish Literature in 1987, and co-founded the Ireland Institution of Pittsburgh in 1989. In 1993, the Rooney Fellowship was created to honor his generosity and charitable works.  Just last night, he was awarded the American Ireland Fund’s Lifetime Achievement Award

The Rooney Family has owned the Pittsburgh Steelers since 1933. Ambassador designate Rooney's farther Art founded the team in an upstart professional league, the NFL.  Dan Rooney joined the team in 1960 after graduating from Duquense University with a degree in accounting.  He initially served as team's director of personnel.  Since 1969 the Steelers, under Rooney's guidance, have had just three head coaches in a time when big salaries and win-at-all-costs attitudes have caused other teams to go through dozens of coaches in that same time span.  The most lasting impact Dan Rooney left on professional sports is the "Rooney rule," which mandates minority candidates be interviewed for all head coaching and general manager vacancies in NFL. 

As a son of both Ireland and Western Pennsylvania, Mr. Rooney I offer you these words of praise and well wishes as you move on to this next chapter in your life, "Mo ghraidhin go deo thu!" and "Oakel-Doakel, Mr Rooney"

Lá Fhéile Pádraig Sona Daoibh!

This morning, on my daily commute down 16th Street in Washington, DC, I passed three polling places; a high school in Mount Pleasant, a church on R Street and another church on N Street. Everyone who was sitting near me commented about the lines, that each streched for no less than two city blocks, some offered better times to vote, some were thankful they voted early or by absentee ballot and some just used foul languange in their descriptions of the length of the line.

Below is a photo I snapped with cell phone of the polling place in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood of Washington, DC.

As I wrote about during the primary, Dixville Notch, NH, reports the nations' first returns just after the the stroke of midnight on Election Day. Tonight, in a nearly unprecedented victory, U.S. Senator Barack Obama won 71% of the vote in the decidedly conservative New Hampshire hamlet, defeating U.S. Sen. John McCain 15-6 at the Basalm's Resort.

Kos shows the historical significance of a Dixville win.  

In the New Hampshire Senate race, former Governor Jeanne Shaheen defeated Incumbant U.S. Sen. John Sununu in Dixville Notch.

In another popular election bellwether, the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated the Washington Redskins tonight. Since the Redskins moved to Washington in 1937, politicos have looked to their final game before the Presidential election. If the Redskins win, the party that won the popular vote in the previous election will win on Tuesday. If the Redskins lose, as they did tonight, when Redskins' Quarterback Jason Campbell was made to look foolish at the hands of the fearsome Steelers defense led by Dick LeBeau (who has been in the NFL since the Eisenhower Administration), the party who lost the last popular vote went on to win the Presidential race.

New polls out in the southwest today: 

NEVADA (Suffolk Univ.)
McCain - 46%, Obama - 45%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 1%
COLORADO (Quinnipiac-WP-WSJ)
Obama -49% McCain - 44%

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has consistently held a six-point advantage in New Mexico in recent polls. These states remain key in the race to 270 because winning two of them could set up a scenario for Obama in which he doesn't need to win Ohio or Florida

The Obama campaign today ratcheted up its Hispanic advertising, unveiling a new radio and television ad in Spanish that began airing today in Colorado, New Mexico, Neveda and Florida. The ads hit U.S. Sen. John McCain for his assertions that the fundamentals of the American economy are strong. 

Earlier, Simon mentioned that he could look at the map on RCP all day, showing Obama/Biden 273 - McCain/Palin 265. However, polls released in 11 of the 12 swing states today show the race being within two points. U.S. Sen. John McCain holds a narrow margin in Ohio and is tied in two of the three Florida polls.

This week, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's campaign in New Mexico has taken a 7-point lead in McCain's backyard. However, polls in New Hampshire, which voted narrowly for John Kerry in 2004, show McCain up three points. New Hampshire, which has been a historically strong state for McCain, could put a dent into the Democratic domination of the northeast if this margin holds.

COLORADO (National Journal/FD): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%.
COLORADO (Insider Advantage): Obama - 51%, McCain - 41%, Others - 2%.
FLORIDA (National Journal/FD): Obama - 44%, McCain - 44%.
FLORIDA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 51%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
FLORIDA (ARG): Obama - 46%, McCain - 46%, Others - 3%.
INDIANA (Indianapolis Star/Selzer): Obama - 47%, McCain - 44%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 1%.
INDIANA (Univ of Wisconsin): McCain - 47%, Obama - 43%, Others - 2%.
MICHIGAN (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 44%, McCain - 41%, Others - 1%.
MINNESOTA (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 45%, McCain - 43%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (ARG): McCain - 50%, Obama - 45%.
NEVADA (ARG): McCain - 49%, Obama - 46%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (ARG): McCain - 48%, Obama - 45%, Others - 1%.
NEW MEXICO (National Journal/FD): Obama - 49%, McCain - 42%.
NEW MEXICO (ARG): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
OHIO (National Journal): McCain - 42%, Obama - 41%.
OHIO (Univ of Wisconsin): McCain - 43%, Obama - 42%, Others - 2%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 43%, McCain - 42%, Others - 1%
WISCONSIN (Univ of Wisconsin): Obama - 42%, McCain - 41%, Others - 1%

The six polls conducted by the University of Wisconsin in Big Ten states also asked respondents how bad they thought their team would beat the Michigan Wolverines this year as they adjust to Coach Rich Rodriguez's spread offense, after their loss to Notre Dame (Average answer: 72 points).

Sarah Palin has made a huge splash since being introduced to the national political scene, a splash like a polar bear doing a Triple Lindy into Glacier Bay. Several national polls released since her announcement have shown her true impact on the race.

According to Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking, Governor Palin has had a rough week in light of her interview on ABC and criticism of her and U.S. Sen. John McCain's negative attacks on U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  Her favorability fell 5 points over the course of last week, Her unfaves increased by 8.  

Today, Rassmussen released a poll testing a hypothetical presidential match up between Palin and U.S. Sen. Joe Biden (perhaps next they can poll a reunion of David Lee Roth and Van Halen). Palin leads Biden 47% to 44%, with both candidates having about 50% favorable ratings, Palin, however, garners 35% very favorable ratings to Biden's 23%.  In the very unfavorable category, Governor Palin also leads with 28% of respondents to Senator Biden's 20%, (but this is like a golf score, lowest wins). Very interestingly, Biden outpaces Palin in a key constituent group, women, 55% to 44% according to the Rassmussen survey.

An EMILY's list poll also found that Governor Palin struggled among those sharing a common second x chromosome as the Alaska Governor. It is hard to believe that a pro-life, anti-moose Pentecostal would only be appealing to 41% of women.  Joe Biden, on the other hand, is supported by 64% of women. Additionally, the EMILY's list poll finds that only 9% of U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters are more likely to support John McCain because of Palin's selection. U.S. Sen. Barack Obama extended his lead among Clinton Supporters by 10 points after Palin's inclusion and opened up a 54-point lead on McCain. 59% of women felt that Palin's selection was politically motivated, 20% of women thought Governor Palin was picked because of her qualifications, the same percent that have excessive mercury in their body.

The race has leveled, the bounces are over. Now it is up to the candidates to make their case and the voters to decide.

A new group of polls released in the last 48 hours give us a better picture of where the presidential campaign might go if the election were held today. As Simon suggests, the race has steadied.

ALASKA (Rasmussen): McCain - 64%, Obama - 33%.
MICHIGAN (CNN/Time): Obama - 45%, McCain - 42%, Nader - 6%, Barr - 2%, McKinney - 1%.
MICHIGAN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (CNN/Time): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 2%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (CNN/Time): Obama - 48%, McCain - 43%, Nader - 4%, Barr - 2%.
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Barr - 4%.
NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): McCain - 55%, Obama - 41%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Others - 3%.
VIRGINIA (CNN/Time): McCain - 49%, Obama - 43%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 1%.
WEST VIRGINIA (WSAV-TV/MBE): McCain - 44%, Obama - 39%.
WISCONSIN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 46%, McCain - 43%, Others - 3%.
MONTANA (Rasmussen): McCain - 53%, Obama - 42%.
NEW JERSEY (Farleigh Dickinson Univ.): Obama - 47%, McCain - 41%, Others - 4%.
OKLAHOMA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 65%, Obama - 32%, Others - 1%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

Factoring in these polling numbers, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama grows his lead to 266-238 over U.S. Sen. John McCain, leaving him four electoral votes short of assuming the presidency, if the election were held today. Based on these data, Oregon and Florida will determine the next president. Oregon is the only swing state without recent polling, but it seems exceedingly likely to go for Obama. Florida, however, is a dead heat. To win the White House, McCain would need to win both Oregon and Florida; Obama need only win one of the two.

In most swing states, the race is within one or two points, leaving it easily inside the margin of error. Simply put: these states could go either way. If McCain were  to flip Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states where he is trailing by two or less points, he takes a 276-228 electoral majority.

If Obama were to flip New Mexico and Indiana, the two states he is trailing by two or less points, his electoral total would run to 282, 12 more than the necessary 270.

McCain's brilliant pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is already paying dividends: he has opened up a 31-point lead in delegate-rich (three) Alaska, 64-33 (100% sample).

The national polls have shown a tightening of the Presidential race in the last couple weeks with U.S. Sen. John McCain pulling even or ahead of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  However, if the last several elections have taught us anything, the outcome will be decided in the battleground states, not in national media polls.

Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have always been historically swing states; This year polls are suggesting that Virginia and to a lesser extent Georgia and North Carolina might also be competitive.

Over the next 6 weeks we will look at these races as the candidates, after two years and millions of dollars come towards the finish line neck and neck, with Obama leading 168 to 159 in the race to 270 electoral votes.

Today, polls in 6 states show the race tight but among those that Obama is leading, he increases his electoral vote lead from 9 to 31.

COLORADO (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

FLORIDA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, McCain - 48%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

MICHIGAN (PPP-D): Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.

OHIO (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 51%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 1%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%.

VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Others - 2%.

VIRGINIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%, McKinney - 0%.

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

After these numbers are figured in, Senator Obama extends his lead to 215 to 184.

In recent days polls have come out in Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Dakota showing Senator Obama leading in those states and Senator McCain leading in Indiana; When factored in this brings the electoral equation to Obama 245 - McCain 189.

To armchair this yourself the Washington Post has a great calculator.  My map says Obama 308 - McCain 230. 

*John McCain seems to have locked up Alaska's three electoral votes with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Early August polling showed McCain 44% - Obama 39% with Lillehammer hero and native son Tommy Moe garnering 11% and singer songwriter Jewel trailing the field with 6%.  Today, Moe and Jewel are under the margin of error and McCain has opened up an 11 point lead. 

The Nielsen Company, famous for its tracking of all things media, released its results of Internet ratings from both conventions. The results tracked the Web buzz of speakers at both conventions during the respective weeks of their speeches. While Alaska Governor Sarah Palin made significant gains over the two weeks of the survey based on searches on ask.com of, "Who the hell is Sarah Palin," the presidential candidates remained the focus of Internet searches, with U.S. Sen. Barack Obama remaining the king of Internet buzz followed by U.S. Sen. John McCain. Sarah Palin came in third followed by U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden. Fred Thompson, who spoke at the Republican Convention, finished 16th on the list, but his results could have been slightly inflated due to Bravo showing Days of Thunder on the Wednesday night on which Fred plays the role of NASCAR commissioner "Big" John.

Nielsen also tracked visits to the candidates' official Web sites. During the Democratic Convention, BarackObama.com saw a 32% spike in traffic. During the same period, JohnMcCain.com saw a 242% increase in traffic after his announcement of Sarah Palin as his running mate. Perhaps people were trying to figure out, "Who the hell is Sarah Palin?"

An interesting statistic that I hope Nielsen provides in the coming weeks is how many people visited BarackObama.com following Palin's speech at the Republican Convention. Interestingly, the Obama campaign reported raising $10 million in 24 hours following her scathing remarks.

Finally, The Nielsen survey looked at Google search ads purchased by the campaign. McCain stepped up his Web search presence with a nearly three-fold increase in image-based impressions in August.  During the same period, Obama's campaign cut their image-based impressions by 18%.  Some of the search phrases purchased by McCain's campaign include: Joe Biden, U.S. Economy, and Housing Crisis according to Silicon Valley Insider.

For more about Online Advertising, checkout NPI's 2008 New Tools Campaign paper, Advertise Online.