NDN Blog

"No Normal Time" - A Special Note from Simon

Dear Friends,

Some days it is important to note just how unusual, and pernicious, American politics has become. Sally Yates’ testimony today reminds us that our President and his allies are under an unprecedented investigation for treason and active collusion with a hostile foreign power. The House passed ACHA and its emerging budget strategy is an extraordinary betrayal of everything Donald Trump campaigned on; would do clear, measurable harm to tens of millions of Americans in order to give tax cuts to the wealthiest among us; and as Paul Krugman argues today in the New York Times represents a degree of direct lying about policy that is also unprecedented in modern American history. More stories of rank and unprecedented corruption by the Trump family once again dominate our headlines this morning. And just this morning our President took to Twitter to discuss golf and once again give clumsy cover to the Russian attack on the American homeland (and French, German and many others) last year. These things are not normal, or okay.

While there is good news out of France this morning, we cannot forget just how extraordinary this moment in American politics is. There is no “business as usual” option here, a sense that things will somehow settle down to something resembling “normal politics.” This is why we’ve so aggressively advocated that Democrats start to make these matters – the appeasement of Russia, the corruption, the epic malevolent lying, the denigration of democratic norms – front and center in their negotiations with Trump and the GOP. We cannot segregate off traditional policy considerations from these broader areas of concern as doing so will be in its own way a form of appeasement and acceptance.

We also have recently advocated that the RNC be challenged to take far more aggressive steps in combating the reoccurrence of foreign attempts to influence our elections that FBI Director Comey predicted will come. The RNC and thus the entire Republican Party and all of its members played a significant role in mainstreaming the Russian operation in the US last year, and were thus critical to its success. This shameful legacy needs to be confronted by the current leadership of the RNC, and steps taken to work with willing Democrats to create a united political front against foreign interference in our elections.

These are no ordinary times. History tells us that in times like these many well-intentioned people will fail to understand how extraordinary the moment is, and to allow wishful thinking to overwhelm good sense. We in America don’t have a lot of experience with this kind of politics, so perhaps it is understandable. But let me be as clear as day – this organization will not stop challenging those in power to meet this worrisome moment head on and with force equal to what is coming at us. Creativity, strategic thinking and good old fashioned courage are required now. And we are going to do our part in making sure that America comes out of this time stronger, wiser and more just than before. We hope you will continue to partner with us in these consequential days ahead to assure that it is so.

Best,

Simon

Monday, May 8th 2017 From Washington, DC

Simon will speak at the AS/COA's 47th Annual Washington Conference on the Americas

On Tuesday, May 9th NDN President Simon Rosenberg will speak at the America Society/Council of America's 47th Annual Washington Conference on the Americas.  Simon be a featured panelist for the 4:00 pm discussion, "The New Washington: A Conversation On What Comes Next".  This event is open to the public but there is a registration fee.

THE NEW WASHINGTON: A CONVERSATION ON WHAT COMES NEXT

Michael Barone
Resident Fellow, AEI; Senior Political Analyst, The Washington Examiner; & Co-author, Almanac of American Politics

Susan Glasser
Chief International Affairs Columnist, POLITICO

Charles Lane
Editorial Writer, The Washington Post

Simon Rosenberg
President and Founder, NDN

Moderated by Demetri Sevastopulo, Washington Bureau Chief, Financial Times
 

Video: Simon joins Fernand Amandi, Roger Stone on Trump's first 100 days

NDN President Simon Rosenberg joined WIOD's Fernand Amandi and Roger Stone to discuss the first 100 days of Trump's Presidency.  It is well worth watching.  

Release: No budget passed, no budget introduced in 1st 100 days

“As Congress struggles to pass a budget originally proposed in early 2016, it is reasonable to ask if President Trump is ever going to submit a budget for FY 2018 that is supposed to be implemented in just five months. So far the President and his team have released pieces and outlines of a budget but no budget itself. Crafting, passing and implementing a budget is perhaps the most elemental responsibility of governing. There are legitimate reasons to be alarmed at Trump’s extraordinary failure to get last year’s budget (7 months into a 12 month fiscal year) passed and his first budget introduced into Congress.

These failures are among the most significant failures of his first 100 days.”

-Simon Rosenberg, NDN
 

Backgrounder: Budgets, Health Care and Trump's Great Betrayal

With attention returning to budgets and the US economy, NDN has assembled some of our work on these matters over the past few months.  We hope you find these analyses helpful.  

Trump's Tax Plan is Aimed at the 2018 and 2020 Elections, Not U.S. Competitiveness, Rob Shapiro, NDN.org, 4/26/17. Trump's claims that damage from higher deficits will be minor compared to the benefits for US competitiveness, economic efficiency, and tax fairness are nonsense, and the real agenda here is the 2018 and 2020 elections.

Release: Still no 2017 budget from GOP, or proposal from White House, Simon Rosenberg, NDN.org, 4/26/17. While the President’s revenue outline today is a late but welcome development, it cannot be given serious consideration outside the eventual full budget proposal that is usually submitted to Congress in February.

Trump puts foreign investors first by supporting the Republican tax plan, Rob Shapiro, The Hill, 3/28/17. Rob weighs in on the very real problems of the House GOP's proposed border adjustment tax.  

Trump's Great Betrayal, Simon Rosenberg, NDN.org, 3/23/17. President Trump is pursuing policies deeply at odds w/his pledge to help every day Americans. It should become known as "The Great Betrayal."

Column: 5 Ways Trump Could Stop Obama's Expansion, Simon Rosenberg, US News & World Report, 3/23/17. There just isn't a lot of justification for the market's optimism that Trump's economic policies - Maralagonomics - will keep the Obama expansion going.

Memo: In A New Global Age, Democrats Have Been Far Better for the US Economy, Deficits, and Incomes, Chris Murphy and Simon Rosenberg, NDN.org, 2/21/17. In a new memo NDN finds that over the past generation of American politics Democrats have been far better for the economy, deficits and incomes. 

Steve Bannon, Meet Russell Pearce, Simon Rosenberg, US News & World Report, 2/21/17. If history is a guide, Trump's efforts to institutionalize xenophobia and ramp up immigration enforcement could disrupt businesses, hurt the US economy and tear apart families. The blowback could be significant and cause lasting damage to his Presidency.

If you would like to read more of Rob's other recent work, be sure to review our backgrounder "Rob Shapiro on the Economy."

Trump’s Tax Plan Is Aimed At the 2018 and 2020 Elections, Not U.S. Competitiveness

President Trump wants to cut the tax rate for all American businesses to 15 percent, and damn the deficit. If you believe him, any damage from higher deficits will be minor compared to the benefits for US competitiveness, economic efficiency, and tax fairness. The truth is, those claims are nonsense; and the real agenda here is the 2018 and 2020 elections. Without substantial new stimulus, the GOP will likely face voters in 2018 with a very weak economy – and tax cuts, especially for business, are the only form of stimulus most Republicans will tolerate. Moreover, if everything falls into place, just right, deep tax cuts for businesses could spur enough additional capital spending to help Trump survive the 2020 election.

Let’s review the economic case for major tax relief for American companies. It’s undeniable that the current corporate tax is inefficient – but does it actually make U.S. businesses less competitive? The truth is, there’s no evidence of any such effects. In fact, the post-tax returns on business investments are higher in the United States than in any advanced country except Australia, and the productivity of businesses is also higher here than in any advanced country except Norway and Luxembourg.

The critics are right that the 35 percent marginal tax rate on corporate profits is higher than in most countries. But as the data on comparative post-tax returns suggest, that marginal tax rate has less impact on investment and jobs than the “effective tax rate,” which is the actual percentage of net profits that businesses pay. On that score, the GAO reports that U.S. businesses pay an average effective tax rate of just 14 percent, which tells us that U.S. businesses get to use special provisions that protect 60 percent of their profits from tax (14 percent = 40 percent of 35 percent).

Tax experts are certainly correct that a corporate tax plan that closed special provisions and used the additional revenues to lower the 35 percent tax rate would make the overall economy a little more efficient. But lowering the rate alone while leaving most of those provisions in place would have almost no impact on the economy’s efficiency – and the political point of Trump’s plan depends on not paying to lower the tax rate.

Finally, would a 15 percent tax rate on hundreds of billions of dollars in business profits help most Americans, as the White House insists, since 52 percent of us own stock in U.S. corporations directly or through mutual funds? The data show that most shareholders would gain very little, because with 91 percent of all U.S. stock held by the top 10 percent, most shareholders own very little stock.

Moreover, the proposed 15 percent tax rate would cover not only public corporations but also all privately-held businesses whose profits are currently taxed at the personal tax rate of their owners. So, Trump’s plan would slash taxes not only for public corporations from Goldman Sachs to McDonald’s, but also for every partnership of doctors or lawyers, every hedge fund and private equity fund, and every huge family business from Koch Industries and Bechtel, to the Trump Organization.

There is no doubt that the President’s tax plan would provide enormous windfalls for the richest people in the country. Beyond that, it may or may not sustain growth through the next two elections, since even the best conservative economists commonly overstate the benefits of cutting tax rates. But the truth is, there aren’t many other options that a Republican Congress would accept.

This post was originally published on Dr. Shapiro's blog.

 

Release: Still no 2017 budget from GOP, or 2018 proposal from the White House

“As the White House releases an outline for the revenue side of its budget today, it is important to remember that the governing party has still not yet completed a budget that was due on October 1st, 2016, nor has it proposed one that is due on October 1st, 2017. Even by Washington standards this struggle by the GOP to manage the most elemental part of our running our government is deeply worrisome.

While the President’s revenue outline today is a late but welcome development, it cannot be given serious consideration outside the eventual full budget proposal that is usually submitted to Congress in February. Budgets are about making hard choices among competing priorities, and reconciling revenue and spending proposals. No grading on a curve here for our inexperienced President – the President’s first budget is extraordinarily late, and from what we’ve seen so far not terribly serious or thought through. If our President wants to regain some of the ground he has lost in his wobbly first 100 days, he would be wise to focus on getting the budget from 2016 that is already seven months late completed, and his first budget, already months late, released for consideration by Congress.”

-Simon Rosenberg, President, NDN

 

Column: Dems should put Russia, corruption and tax returns on agenda w/Trump

Today, US News and World Report published Simon's latest column,“Standing Firm.” In the column Simon recommends that in the coming negotiations with President Trump on a wide variety of issues – including the budget, debt ceiling, infrastructure, improving the Affordable Care Act and even matters of war and peace – Democrats should add three more important issues to the agenda:

1. Full presidential cooperation with the various probes into Russian interference in U.S. politics.
2. Commonplace financial transparency - release of tax returns, public audit of Trump's holdings.
3. Cessation of presidential use of his private businesses for matters of state.

To continue reading, please refer to the US News link. You can Simon's previous US News columns here.

Column: The RNC’s Russia Problem

Friends,

Today US News published Simon's latest column,“The RNC's Russia Problem: The RNC Should Take The Lead In Preventing Future Interference In Our Elections.”

An excerpt –

"The main purpose of the two congressional investigations into the Russian campaign to interfere in America's electoral process is to prevent such a campaign from ever happening again. There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about future reoccurrences. Just today, Facebook closed 30,000 accounts in France, ones it determined were spreading misinformation in the run up to the French election. So these malevolent efforts by foreign governments to interfere in the democratic processes of important Western powers continue and remain a serious threat to sovereignty and security of the United States.

As policymakers forge an appropriate response to this ongoing threat, the Republican National Committee has a particularly important role to play in future efforts to protect this part of America's homeland. For as we've learned in recent weeks, the RNC was at the center of two of the most important components of the Russian campaign – the penetration of Trump's campaign by the Russian government, and the normalization and use of Russian disinformation."

To continue reading, please refer to the US News link. You can Simon's previous US News columns here.

Be sure to also read Simon's statement on Secretary of State Tillerson's meetings with Putin and Lavrov as well as his statement on the White House and Department of Homeland Security to release their plan to protect US elections from future interference by foreign powers.

Release: Tillerson failed to make Russian interference in US elections central to his mtgs w/Lavrov, Putin

“Based on his statements in his Moscow press conference this afternoon, Secretary of State Tillerson failed to make the issue of Russia’s interference in US politics and its ongoing efforts to disrupt the politics of our European allies central to his meetings with Russian President Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov today. In his opening statement describing the talks he did not mention these ongoing and serious aggressions by Russia. They only came up when Tillerson was queried by a reporter, and his exact words were “we touched on it briefly.”

A direct Russian attack on the American homeland is not peripheral to the US-Russian relationship. Failure by Tillerson to make this far-ranging interference campaign central to these talks and to publicly condemn Russia for their aggressive actions here and in Europe is a tacit sign of approval of these efforts by the Trump Administration. It is also an invitation for Russia and other nations to attempt these kind of interference campaigns again in future elections here and abroad.

I for one reject the argument that what is happening in Syria and North Korea is more important than Russian’s extensive and ongoing efforts to undermine democracy in the US and Europe. These efforts should have been given equal weight to these other global challenges, and should have been central to the talks today. It is another disturbing sign of how Donald Trump’s admiration and relationship for Russia is interfering with his ability to be an effective President for the American people.

A few days ago NDN called on the White House and The Department of Homeland Security to release their plans to prevent the kind of interference we saw in 2016 from happening in this upcoming election cycle, including the special election in Georgia next week. The apparent failure of Tillerson to make these matters central to the talks today makes the production of such a go-forward strategy by the WH even more urgent.”

-Simon Rosenberg, President, NDN

 

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