Due to the current federal goverment shutdown, we regret to inform you that this event is currently postponed. Please check back, we look forward to rescheduling this important conversation.
Posted September 27, 2013
As Vice President Biden said during his recent trip to Mexico, “there is no reason why our partnership, the U.S.-Mexico partnership, should not be among the strongest that we have.” Mexico is now the US’s second largest export market and third ranked trade partner, with two-way trade worth over $500 billion in 2012. Recent announcements on security collaboration as well as the first meeting of the US-Mexico High Level Economic Dialogue indicate that this crucial bilateral relationship is deepening, broadening and improving.
On October 8th, NDN and the New Policy Institute are pleased to welcome DHS’s Assistant Secretary of International Affairs Alan Bersin to offer his reflections on the improving binational relationship. He is one of the administration’s experienced Mexico hands, and accompanied former Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano on her July trip to Matamoros and Mexico City. A/S Bersin will share his thoughts about our improving relations, and then take your questions.
Our event will take place at NDN, 729 15th St NW, 1st floor, from 10:30am to Noon. Coffee will be served.
Please RSVP here to ensure a good seat. We look forward to seeing you on the 8th!
NDN applauds the introduction of H.R. 15, the “Border Security, Economic Opportunity and Immigration Modernization Act,” yesterday by members of the House Democratic caucus. At a time when Congress is doing little to endear itself to the American public, this proposed legislation shows a desire to work together for the wellbeing of not only the eleven million undocumented immigrants in this country but also the entire US workforce and economy.
Why is this specific bill such an important tool for advancing the immigration reform debate?
As we have said before, we are closer than ever to a deal between our two parties. Though introduced by Democrats, this bill is constructed from bipartisan measures. It incorporates part of the Senate immigration bill S. 744 which passed out of the Judiciary Committee and the full Senate with broad bipartisan support, as well as H.R 1417, the Border Security Results Act, introduced by Chairman McCaul (R-TX) and passed unanimously out of the House Homeland Security Committee. During this government shutdown and era of extreme partisan divide, the bill sponsors have intentionally incorporated language from Republicans to demonstrate this is one issue where finger-pointing and partisanship can no longer stand in the way of action.
As we previously stated, not only will this bill “improve border security and interior enforcement, resolve the issue of the 11 million undocumented immigrants living and working here in the US, improve the legal immigration system, smartly invest in expanding our trade with Mexico – we now know that it will also help improve the US economy, create jobs and significantly lower the budget deficit.” The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office predicts that this bill will grow the economy, increasing federal revenues by $459 billion over the first decade, decreasing the federal deficit by almost a trillion dollars over the next two decades.
The introduction of the House border security bill in place of the Senate Corker-Hoeven amendment appears to signal the end of the “border surge,” otherwise derided as “militarization” or even “candy” thrown at the southwest border. The McCaul bill is a thoughtful alternative which seeks to increase border security according to the needs determined by involved agencies and border community stakeholders, while also facilitating legitimate cross-border trade and travel.
Wednesday, ahead of the press conference, long-time immigration champion Rep. Luis Gutierrez affirmed, Democrats “are more unified than ever” around immigration reform, but they will continue to reach across the aisle to Republicans to make sure that, backed by the broadest and strongest coalition of supporters around the country, Congress can pass meaningful comprehensive immigration reform. Today, Rep. Gutierrez joined the list of 120 cosponsors of H.R. 15, and that list is expected to keep growing.
President Obama has made comprehensive immigration reform a top priority, the Senate passed its immigration bill with overwhelming bipartisan support in June, and now the House Democrats have proposed a bill incorporating bipartisan language. All that remains is for the House Republicans to do their part. We have defended the House GOP as being ready and willing to make a deal on immigration reform that will grow the national economy, shrink the deficit, and secure America’s workforce. The time is now for them to prove it.
“The introduction of this thoughtful new House immigration reform bill brings us one step closer to getting a bill signed into law in the coming months. The bill is a good one, incorporating the best of what the Senate passed, and constructive ideas from House Republicans. That the Democrats could have introduced a bill with so many ideas from the other side, at this tense and difficult moment, is itself a sign of the momentum immigration reform has in Congress right now. We are closer to a deal than at any point since Senators McCain and Kennedy began this process in 2005, and I am optimistic Congress will finish the job in the coming months.“
“La introducción de este nuevo y bien pensado proyecto de ley de inmigración nos lleva un paso más cerca a una inminente confirmación de que se convierta en la nueva ley de reforma migratoria en los próximos meses. Es una buena propuesta de ley, ya que incorpora lo mejor de lo que se aprobó en el Senado, junto con ideas constructivas de republicanos en la Cámara Baja. El hecho de que los demócratas hayan podido presentar un proyecto de ley con muchas ideas del otro bando, justo en estos tiempos difíciles, es ya de hecho una señal del buen impulso que lleva la ley de reforma migratoria en el congreso en estos momentos. Estamos más cerca a un trato de lo que estábamos cuando los senadores McCain y Kennedy comenzaron este proceso en el 2005 y me mantengo optimista de que el congreso va a terminar su trabajo en los próximos meses.”
Be sure to see my recent op-ed arguing the two parties are much closer to a deal on immigration reform than many realize. Also see our discussion two weeks ago with immigration reform experts Frank Sharry and Tamar Jacoby with insight into the current state of play.
The Shutdown Endgame: Getting to a Budget Deal, Protecting Our Democracy
To understand how we get out of the shutdown mess, it is important to understand how we got here. The central cause of the current government shutdown is the House Republican’s inability to propose a realistic budget and pass any appropriations bills this year. The struggles they had in making their numbers add up in their budget process this spring, well documented here by Politico’s David Rogers, left the House without a fiscal consensus they could use to negotiate with the Senate. This, in turn, led the House to take the remarkable step of boycotting a budget conference committee, the normal process our government has used for hundreds of years to get to a budget which allows the US government to operate.
The government shut down on October 1st because Congress has not passed a budget to fund it for the fiscal year 2014. This shutdown really isn’t about Obamacare. Until the House drops its opposition to negotiating with the Senate to produce a budget, the current brinksmanship will continue. There is only one way to remove the threat of a shutdown – the House must return to the budget negotiating table and help provide the country with a budget to fund our government next year. Anything short of that is just political noise. And thus the President and Senator Reid are right to object to negotiations over anything other than doing what is mandated by the Constitution and funding the government.
The remarkable reluctance of the GOP to enter into serious budget negotiations to resolve the crisis can be explained in two ways. One, they know it removes their leverage, forces them to confront their own internal fiscal incoherence, and is likely to a result in a budget not palatable to many House Republicans. Second, it brings to a premature end another of their strategic goals of this conflict: to change the Constitutional arrangements of our government to give the minority party more power than it is currently allocated. The clear evidence that this is a strategic goal of the Republicans is the list of issues, which go far beyond the new health care law, Speaker Boehner floated as ones he wanted negotiated to raise the debt ceiling. None of these many proposals - environmental, regulatory, health - involve, of course, mechanisms for ending the budget stalemate (go to the end of the piece for a full list).
Every one of these proposals has passed the Republican House, and then has been rejected by the Senate. Thus in our system of governing, the Congress had rejected them, and the minority party failed to get its way. By using the threat of economic catastrophe as a way of reconsidering ideas already defeated in our democratic process, the House Republicans are attempting to create a new system of legislating which would allow their defeated ideas to pass the Senate (which had already rejected them) and be signed into law. And it was not just one issue they were trying to re-litigate but dozens – their entire domestic agenda in other words.
Given all this the responsible path for the President and the Senate is to call the House Republicans to an immediate budgetary conference committee and begin negotiating the only thing that will remove the threat of a shutdown – an actual budget for the United States government. Once the Committee convenes, the two chambers should pass a two month Continuing Resolution to keep the government open until a final budget is negotiated. All other negotiations – over partial CRs, debt ceiling, etc – are tabled.
The President has an extraordinary obligation to proceed in this way. He cannot allow one party to decide not to participate in the age old process our democracy has created for funding its government. He cannot allow a minority party to unilaterally, extra-Constitutionally, dictate the terms of how our democracy will work. He cannot allow the country to be governed this way. It weakens our democracy and our national security, is terribly expensive and unsettling to global markets. And perhaps worst of all, in a time of great global challenge it sends a signal to the world that the world’s most important democracy is itself having a terrible time making democracy work at home. In that sense it not just undermines our democracy, but undermines and weakens the global movement to bring more political freedom and opportunity to people throughout the entire world.
My hope is that the President stands firm in the coming days. There is much at stake in this fight. His focus should be clear: re-open our government, negotiate a budget deal, and protect our democracy. Reject half-steps or pointless negotiations. Do the right thing, and we will all benefit.
According to press accounts, Speaker Boehner is considering the following in his negotiations over raising the debt ceiling: a one-year delay of the Affordable Care Act, a “fast-track” tax reform authority, Keystone XL Pipeline construction, an overhaul of Dodd-Frank regulation, more offshore oil drilling, more permitting of energy exploration on federal lands, suspending the Environmental Protection Agency's efforts to regulate carbon emissions , rolling back regulations on coal ash, elimination of a $23 billion fund to ensure the orderly dissolution of failed major banks, elimination of mandatory contributions to the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, limiting medical malpractice lawsuits and increase means testing for Medicare, and repeal of the Public Health Trust Fund.
Confrontation and Crisis will Create New Millenial Era Civic Ethos
Depending on one’s partisan leanings, the desire of House Republicans to shut down the federal government if the Democrats don’t agree to repeal ObamaCare may seem to be either a courageous ideological stand or a kamikaze mission sure to destroy its proponents, if not the country. However, from a generational perspective it is not only a predictable but a necessary step in the country’s search for a new consensus on the role and size of government.
Nor is it coincidental that the current confrontation is coming to a head just as the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is about to be implemented nationwde. The roles that the legislation assigns to the federal government, states and individuals in securing every citizen access to medical insurance is such a departure from the existing civic ethos it has become the touchstone for the debate about the nation’s civic ethos in the Millennial Era. Yet, ironically, the law everyone wants to argue about actually provides a blueprint to any politician willing to go beyond their current ideological comfort zone and solve a range of challenges in ways that respond to the beliefs and behaviors of the emerging Millennial Majority in the electorate.
As finally passed by a Democratic Congress in 2010, ACA creates a relationship between the federal government and the nation’s adult population similar to the role Millennials’ parents have played in their young children’s lives. Parents pronounced rules to guide their children’s behavior with consequences (“time outs”) if the rules were broken. Similarly, the ACA requires each individual to purchase health insurance and provides penalties (taxes) for failing to do so, an approach the Supreme Court ruled lawful under Article I, Section 8 of the United States Constitution. And, just as parents and other members of the extended community helped Millennials succeed within the boundaries of the rules they established, ACA envisioned a series of state by state health insurance exchanges that would help each state’s residents find the type of insurance they wanted at a cost they could afford. As those exchanges open for business in about half of the states this week, this new configuration of American democracy will be put to a practical test, but the fundamental concept is likely to be recognized in the future as the basis for a new civic ethos as distinct from the Reagan era of limited government as was the New Deal from its laissez faire predecessor.
History suggests, however, that the country must go through a crisis as bad as the one it is facing today before this happens. The New Deal was born out of the perils of the Great Depression. Reagan’s tough love solution of lower taxes and less government regulation required years of economic stagflation before it became conventional political wisdom. Today, neither of those ideas has proven equal to the task of breaking the country out of the economic doldrums of the Great Recession.
Older politicians will have to get beyond their ideological blinders to recognize the opportunity waiting for any candidate or political party that can embrace both halves of the Millennial era civic ethos paradox. Members of the Millennial generation are as suspicious of large government bureaucracies as any libertarian but as dedicated to economic equality and social justice as any liberal. To resolve the crisis, the GOP should embrace ObamaCare as a great example of how government can encourage individual responsibility and accountability and Democrats should sign up for President Obama’s commitment to creating a smarter, smaller less bureaucratic government. Only when the crisis becomes so bad that a few brave leaders break out of their ideological bunkers and discover a new civic ethos that embodies both collective action and individual responsibility will the Millennial Era civic ethos emerge from the chaos created by a Congress so out of step with the beliefs and behaviors of the future leaders of the country.
With a good part of the federal government now closed for business, the pathologies driving it are too obvious to ignore. The diagnosis begins with the fact that there is no partisan argument this time about overall federal spending. The White House and congressional Democrats have accepted the arbitrary cuts of the sequester process, despite evidence that they are slowing the economy. Instead, the rightwing of the House GOP is holding normal government operations hostage to a variety of demands tied the Affordable Care Act.
Obamacare has been a festering focus of Tea Partiers since 2010, when its passage helped elect a number of them to Congress. Three years later, their continuing single-mindedness about those reforms has begun to look like a pathological obsession. Too strong? Their threats to close down Washington unless President Obama agrees to give up his signature achievement – and their deluded confidence that they can bend him to their will -- have been utterly unaffected by not only the results of the 2012 elections, but also by the prevailing consensus that their strategy will cost the GOP even more in 2014.
This week, the pathology spread to Republican leaders. Since Tea Party members make up less than one-quarter of the House GOP and an even smaller share in the Senate, they always need support from their more moderate colleagues and Party leaders to carry out their threats. Those leaders and colleagues have for weeks publicly opposed the Tea Party strategy – that is, until this past weekend. After months of being held hostage themselves to Tea Party threats of insurrection and primary challenges, House Speaker John Boehner, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and most of their associates have now identified with their captors and adopted their worldview. In short, they’re suffering from a political version of “Stockholm Syndrome.” If they don’t recover quickly, much of the national government could remain closed for a long time.
This post was originally published in Dr. Shapiro's blog.
On Monday, September 30th NDN's MENA Initiative hosted an online webcast to discuss President Obama’s post-UNGA Middle East strategy in light of developments with Iran and recent events in Syria and Egypt. You can view the conversation on Spreecast. I was joined by James Miller, Managing Editor of The Interpreter Magazine. James has many years of experience covering the Middle East, Russia, and the Arab revolutions.
“NDN applauds the new immigration reform bill introduced by Representatives Grijalva and Vela today. If we are to pass immigration reform this year, it is time for the House to get going. Our hope is that this thoughtful bill can help jump start the House process, and help produce a good immigration reform bill by year’s end.“
“Aplaudo esta nueva ley de reforma migratoria presentada por los congresistas Vela y Grijalva. Si vamos a pasar una reforma migratoria este año, es tiempo de que la Cámara Baja se empiece a mover. Esperamos que esta ley bien pensada pueda ayudar a arrancar el proceso legislativo del congreso en la Cámara de Representantes y que se cristalice en una buena ley de inmigración para finales de este año.”
Be sure to see my recent op-ed arguing the two parties are much closer to a deal on immigration reform than many realize.
Tue AM Update - News reports indicate House Democratic Leadership is planning to introduce their own bill next week. See this piece from the Greg Sargent of the WaPo, and this one from Politico. Possible that the demise of the Gang of 7 makes a broader debate in Congress more possible now. Dems are leaning in. Rs promising October votes. Things seem to moving now.
The basic thrust of our discussion last week with immigration reform experts Frank Sharry and Tamar Jacoby - where we discussed the state of play, and what was possible this year - looks even more spot on.
NDN applauds the creation of the US-Mexico “High Level Economic Dialogue,” which convenes today in Mexico City for its first meeting. The US delegation led by Vice President Biden includes Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, Secretary of Transportation Anthony Foxx, Acting Secretary of Homeland Security Rand Beers, US Trade Representative Michael Froman, State Department Assistant Secretary for Economic and Business Affairs Jose W. Fernandez, Deputy Assistant Secretary for International and Foreign Language Education Clay Pell, US Department of Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs Lael Brainard, and National Security Advisor to the Vice President Jake Sullivan. On the Mexican side, participants include Secretary of Finance Luis Videgaray, Secretary of the Economy Ildefonso Guajardo, Secretary of Communications and Transport Gerardo Ruiz Esparza, Secretary of Tourism Claudia Ruiz Massieu, and Secretary of Foreign Affairs José Antonio Meade. The impressive convergence of such an all-star cast of high-level officials illustrates the importance and the priority both countries are placing on this new collaborative initiative.
Presidents Obama and Peña Nieto established what will be an annual cabinet-level exchange to “further elevate and strengthen this dynamic bilateral commercial and economic relationship” during their meeting in May 2013. Today’s dialogue will focus on three areas: competitiveness and connectivity; economic growth, productivity and entrepreneurship and innovation; and partnering for regional and global leadership. Prior to the dialogue, private sector members of each country will also meet to discuss greater coordination in business and education initiatives.
Echoing the President and Vice President, Secretary Pritzker stated, “The US strategic relationship with Mexico is one of our most important in the world.” While the United States often focuses on the security collaboration across our shared 2,000 mile border, many do not realize what strides Mexico has made in the last two decades. GDP has tripled and Mexico is now ranked twelfth in the world in terms of purchasing power parity. Meanwhile, Mexico has become US’s third largest trading partner and second largest export market. Bilateral trade with Mexico has quadrupled to $535.9 billion in 2012, and 6 million US jobs alone depend on that trade. Meanwhile, the US efforts to increase its border security regime have successfully resulted in a dramatic decrease in illegal crossings and crime on the US side of the border. This bilateral trade explosion has thrived although the US has strengthened its security blanket.
This meeting comes at a particularly significant moment as we approach the 20 year anniversary of the passing of NAFTA. Participants look back on the success of the trade agreement that led to such regional economic growth, but also to what lies ahead, like the Trans-Pacific Partnership. A senior administration official said, “Mexico is not just a leader in the region, a partner with the United States, but increasingly a global partner of ours.” On Mexico’s growth and reform, Pritzker has also said, "It's going to create continued opportunities for the two countries to work together, both diplomatically and economically."
NDN has written extensively on the importance of US-Mexico relations. For more information, see our report “Realizing the Strategic National Value of our Trade, Tourism and Ports of Entry with Mexico,” as well as our border and immigration powerpoint presentation.