NDN Blog

If you have some time tomorrow come join me for a live video web briefing/discussion about the current national political and policy landscape.  It is another test of a new and powerful web video platform, Spreecast, which allows much greater capacity to interact and participate in the briefings, including the ability to include live video of our audience participating and asking questions (similar to Google Hangout). 

So if you can make come join me at 215pm EST tomorrow.  Just go to this page on our Spreecast Channel and join the conversation.  While there be sure to check out some of the recent briefings/conversations we've conducted on a wide range of subjects.  

Comings,and goings, at any organization, particularly small ones, present both great challenges and great opportunities.  Challenges to keep continuity, operational strength, institutional coherence; opportunities to recharge, readjust, alter an institution’s course to new and changed circumstances.   Right now we are going through one of those periodic waves of both promise and challenge as some important staff depart and a new wave of folks begin to arrive.

I am sad to announce that our Vice President for Development and Strategic Partnerships, Jenna Narayanan, will be moving on.  Jenna has been with us for just a year, but in that short time brought a keen strategic vision and a joy to her work that we will all miss.   Also departing is our Senior Advisor, Alicia Menendez, a terrific colleague and thoughtful friend.  Both Jenna and Alicia have been essential parts of our team here of late, so they will be missed.  And I am personally grateful for how hard they worked while here, and for all that they got done.

Additionally, Seth Beer, who filled in for Jenna during her recent maternity leave, is returning to his consultancy and very full slate of projects.  Seth is a rising talent in center-left politics, and someone I hope to collaborate with again in the years ahead.

But as they go, a new team and new internal strategy here is beginning to take shape.  We have been interviewing for three open positions here, and hope to make announcements about them soon. In all likelihood we will be adding one or two more people to this new team this spring and making some other institutional announcements soon.  It is early in the process but I feel good about our new team, and new strategy, will help us keep ahead of a fast-changing and highly competitive environment here in DC.

Finally I would like to introduce you to my new assistant and very able get stuff done person in the office, Catherine Walsh.  She has been with us a short time but has already made a big difference.   You can contact her at cwalsh@ndn.org if you need her, and look for her more frequently right here on the blog.   

Thanks for everything.

For the past few months I've been citing data showing that the national political landscape was changing, and a much more favorable 2012 environment was developing for the Democrats.  This week there was further confirmation of this trend in the newly released NBC/WSJ poll.  

From the poll:

- Right Track/Wrong Track is now 30/61, 26 points better than in October.

- Obama's approval is net positive, 48/46, for the first time since last summer. 

- Obama's handling of the economy is now 45/50, 13 points better than October.

But the really interesting data is the comparison of where the two parties and their candidates stand.  As the poll suggests the GOP is facing a significant structural challenge in 2012.

- Obama leads Romney 49/43, which is the same margin in his landslide win in 2008.  Against Gingrich and and Santorum Obama is way over 50, and ahead by more than 10 points. In a three way with Paul and Romney Obama wins 45/32/18.

- Dem Party favorability is 38/39, GOP 31/44.  This is a 15 point differential in basic favorability.

- Obama's favorability is 50/39, Romney 31/36, Gingrich 26/48, Santorum 26/27.  In the WaPo/ABC poll from earlier this week it was

- The Congressional generic is 47/41 for the Dems, a 4 point shift towards the Dems since December, and the best showing for the Dems in this poll since April of 2009. 

- Party ID is 44D/37R, a margin consistent with other data here.

- In the Republican Primary Gingrich leads Romney 37/28, and in a two way, 52/39.  Gingrich has significant challenges in the general election, but Mitt Romney is still after 5 years of running for President struggling to win over Republicans. 

In the article describing the poll, the authors refered to this batch of data as the "GOP Brand Problem." 

I have no doubt that is going to be a close election this fall.  But elections take on structures each year.  And while this has been a volatile period, there is a 2012 structure emerging, some basic set of realities which are settling in.  The structure of 2012 is much more favorable to the President, and the Democrats, than conventional wisdom holds. There is also very strong evidence that the nation is not blaming both parties equally for our challenges, an argument heard far too often in the mainstream media these days and one that is simply not backed up by data.

Today, NDN/NPI is proud to release a major new paper authored by leading economists Rob Shapiro and Kevin Hassett, "The Employment Effects of Advances in Internet and Wireless Technology: Evaluating the Transitions from 2G to 3G and from 3G to 4G."  You can find a PDF of the full paper here.  The paper's executive summary is below.  And to hear directly from the authors about the paper, come see them in person in Washington on Thursday, or participate in a live web video briefing/discussion later that afternoon.  You can learn more about each presentation or RSVP here.

Enjoy.

The Executive Summary

Continuing investments to upgrade the wireless broadband Internet infrastructure, including the transitions from 2G to 3G wireless technologies, and now from 3G to 4G, had produced cascades of innovation. Based on previous advances, the current transition to 4G technologies is likely to spur significant new job creation and growth which could help the American economy restore gains in incomes and business investment. New econometric analysis set forth in this study shows that the investments and innovation entailed in the transition from 2G to 3G wireless technologies and Internet infrastructure spurred the creation of some 1,585,000 new jobs from April 2007 to June 2011. The investments being undertaken today to upgrade wireless network and Internet technologies from 3G to 4G hold comparable promise for job creation. This analysis estimates that under the current transition, every 10 percent increase in the adoption of 3G and 4G wireless technologies could add more than 231,000 new jobs to the U.S. economy in less than a year.

Based on the substantial economic benefits arising from advances in wireless broadband infrastructure and the adoption of devices that take advantage of that infrastructure, national policy should actively promote the rapid deployment and broad adoption of 4G wireless broadband.

Wireless Advances Created Jobs Even in Recession

Applying a unique database that provides detailed information on the ownership of mobile devices that operate on successive generations of wireless infrastructure, to state-by-state employment data, the authors of the study show:

• The adoption of cell phones and other mobile devices supported by a shift from 2G to 3G Internet and wireless network technologies led to the creation of nearly 1.6 million new jobs across the United States, between April 2007 and June 2011 – even as total private sector employment fell by nearly 5.3 million positions.

• The rapid transition from 3G to 4G mobile broadband networks should continue to stimulate new job creation in a short time frame, generating more than 231,000 jobs for every 10 percentage point gain in penetration rates within a year. 

The research found that a 10 percentage point gain in penetration of a new generation of wireless technology in a given quarter leads to a 0.07 percentage-point gain in employment in the following quarter and continuing gains in subsequent quarters. These results suggest that a national job creation strategy should include or encourage appropriate measures to accelerate the deployment of 4G infrastructure.

4G Can Help American Meet Its National Broadband Goals

In addition to jobs gains, which the authors verify with five additional statistical tests, widespread deployment of 4G technology could help the country achieve universal broadband service by ensuring that this service becomes quickly available to many rural Americans who currently lack high-speed connectivity. 4G-enabled mobile services also could provide a less costly way for lower- and moderate-income Americans to access broadband.

The advent of new generations of wireless technology will also enhance the overall benefits of Internet connectivity and related advances in information and communications technologies (ICT). The McKinsey Global Institute, for example, has estimated that the Internet contributed about three percent to global GDP in 2009 and was responsible for 21 percent of U.S. GDP gains over the last five years.

This study also documents how the transition from 2G to 3G enabled or promoted the development of new products, services and industries. It further examines how the current, ongoing shift to 4G wireless infrastructure may open the door to a wide range of additional applications, services, products and new industries. These developments should generate or promote economic gains at least comparable to those produced by the build-out and adoption of 3G technologies.

Investments in 4G mobile wireless technologies and infrastructure networks hold particular promise in areas such as online retail, health care, energy, and business services.

• Mobile e-commerce, for example, increased several-fold in recent years, growing from about $1.4 billion in 2009 to between $6 billion and $9 billion in 2011 according to ABI Research. The shift to 4G can be expected to accelerate this growth.

• Savings from the wide use of electronic medical records created and accessed wirelessly, along with other “mHealth” apps, could total some $15 billion a year using current wireless technologies, and those savings would also grow as 4G apps become widely available and used.

• A national Smart Grid that applied wireless technologies to the nation’s electricity networks could save $20 billion annually by simply reducing power outages, according to the National Energy Technology Laboratory. A 4G-based Smart Grid would save an additional $10 billion by further reducing the incidence of power failures.

• Cloud-based services, which are gaining rapidly in popularity, also would benefit from enhanced 4G wireless. Juniper Research, for example, estimates that the market for mobile-based cloud services could reach $39 billion by 2016, assuming wide deployment of 4G infrastructure and devices.

Policymakers Should Encourage Private Sector Investment in 4G Wireless Technologies

The rapid deployment of 4G technologies and the innovations that will accompany them should generate significant and widespread societal gains, including a stronger economic recovery and expansion from the recent recession. Policies to promote the full deployment of 4G, therefore, should be part of any national job creation and economic strategy.

NDN/NPI is proud to have released a major new paper, "The Employment Effects of Advances in Internet and Wireless Infrastructure: Evaluating the Transitions from 2G to 3G and from 3G to 4G."

Written by prominent economists Kevin Hassett and Rob Shapiro, the paper quantifies the economic benefits - from jobs to innovation - associated with the deployment of and investment in more advanced internet infrastructure and mobile devices. It also looks at job gains linked to the spreading use of mobile telephony as wireless technologies advanced to take advantage of the increased capacity of 2G and 3G networks, and forecasts the impact of the current transition from 3G to 4G technologies.   

We have arranged two opportunities for you to hear directly from the authors this Thursday: 

Luncheon Presenation at NDN, Noon - Please join us in person this Thursday, January 19th, Noon, at NDN, 729 15th Street, NW.  To reserve your slot please RSVP here.

Live Web Video Briefing/Discussion, 2-245pm - The two authors will be presenting live on the web for anyone, anywhere to hear about the paper, and then take questions. Join us at 2pm by accessing the event's page on Spreecast. The Spreecast platform makes it easy for us to take questions from all of you. Join us!

Please join us next Thursday for a luncheon discussion celebrating the release of a major new paper by economists Robert Shapiro and Kevin Hassett.  The new paper, "The Employment Effects of Advances in Internet and Wireless Infrastructure: Evaluating the Transitions from 2G to 3G and from 3G to 4G," quantifies the economic benefits - from jobs to innovation - associated with the deployment of and investment in more advanced internet infrastructure and mobile devices.

The paper looks at job gains linked to the spreading use of mobile telephony as wireless technologies advanced to take advantage of the increased capacity of 2G and 3G networks, and forecasts the impact of the current transition from 3G to 4G technologies.   

The event will take place at on Thursday, January 19th, Noon at NDN, 729 15th Street, NW.  We will be joined by the two authors. Please RSVP here. 

US News asked me to write a short piece about the state of the GOP campaign post New Hampshire.  Here is what I gave them earlier today:

"After strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire, it seems likely now that former Gov. Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination this year. His opposition is weak and fractured. And the strength of Rep. Ron Paul has made it even harder for one of the anti-Romneys to consolidate the very sizable anti-Romney vote.

So what is left to look for in the coming days? There will be a lot of discussion about the ability of Romney to win non-economic elites, evangelicals, and independents. As we head into the Sunbelt phase of the early GOP race, we will be reminded that since 1956 only twice have the Republicans nominated someone from outside the Sunbelt—Gerald Ford in 1976, Bob Dole Dole in 1996—and both times those candidates lost in the general election. We will hear more about what kind of capitalism and economy we want to have, something that will be central to the fall election.

But what may be most interesting is that the GOP field now moves on to three states—South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada—with sizable minority populations, something we did not find in Iowa or New Hampshire. If the campaign continues through early February, we should expect to see the Republican field have to address a subject not very comfortable for the modern GOP—race. There is a Republican debate next Monday in South Carolina on Martin Luther King Day. Campaigning in Florida and Nevada will force the candidates to confront the mess the GOP has made of its relationship with Latinos.

As our nation is on track to become a majority minority country by about 2040, crafting a governing philosophy that truly acts as if we are all in this together, "e pluribus unum" as our dollar bills says, is one of the great political challenges of our time. The Democrats so far are passing this test. The Republicans and particularly Mitt Romney—who has campaigned as one the most virulent anti-immigrant politicians of the modern era—not so much. While Mitt may appear unstoppable today in the GOP primary field, one thing that may stop him cold in the fall is his very reactionary and unappealing approach to race, Latinos, and the America we are becoming."

Crossposted here at US News.  What do you think?  Eager to here from you.

Update: Be sure to read this terrific new Tom Schaller piece in Salon, "GOPs Hispanic Problem Gets Worse."

Update, Thur 4pm - Today's NYTimes editorial page goes into the details of Romney's rightward swing on immigration.  One of America's most respected Latino journalists, Andres Oppenheimer, offered his thoughts on all this in his syndicated column today.

Team NDN/NPI announces the following openings:

Policy and Advocacy Manager – A newly created job at NDN/NPI, this mid-level position will work with our community in DC and around the country to promote the work of our major Programmatic Areas in key policy making circles in Washington.   The position requires at least 3 years Hill experience, strong communications skills and passion for our work and world view. Applicants should send cover letter, resume and 3 references to cwalsh@ndn.org prior to January 20th.  Salary commensurate with experience.  

Events Director – A mid-level position here at NDN/NPI, the Events Director will oversee the production of all NDN/NPI events, including live webcasts.  2-3 years of event management experience and facility with communications technology required.   Applicants should send cover letter, resume, and 3 references to cwalsh@ndn.org prior to January 20th.  Salary commensurate with experience. 

Writer/Researcher – NDN is looking for a capable, mature recent college graduate to join us as a Writer/Researcher.   The newly created job will be the primary institutional writer for the organization, helping craft daily content promoting all NDN/NPI programmatic areas, with a special emphasis on social media and the internet.  Public by-lines will be possible.  Professional writing experience and a degree in political science, history or economics required.  Applicants should send cover letter, resume, 2 writing samples and 3 references to cwalsh@ndn.org prior to January 20th.  Salary commensurate with experience. 

To learn more about the internships, please visit http://ndn.org/jobs.   The application window for these slots close early next week – and these can be filled “virtually” by qualified students outside of Washington, DC. 

It is with both great regret and excitement that I announce that Alicia Menendez, Senior Advisor, frequent TV commentator, and all around terrific friend and colleague, is leaving our team later this month.  After two very productive years here at NDN/NPI, she has decided to pursue several promising media projects which deserve her full attention now.

While you will not see her here much longer, you will be able to track her career, her thinking and her work on Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/AliciaJMenendez), Twitter (http://twitter.com/#!/AliciaMenendez) and through other mediums to be announced soon. 

Please join me in thanking Alicia for her time here with us, and in wishing her well in what we all know will be an impactful next chapter in her life. 

Simon

As readers of this blog now I've been making the argument now for several weeks that there was a growing body of evidence that the national political landscape had moved on from the conditions which created the GOP rout in 2010 towards a new one much more favorable to Barack Obama and the Democrats.  See this round up of my recent analyses, and this video of me from last Friday reviewing the data. At the core of this analysis is that the country does not see what is going on now as a "pox on both your houses;" the public doesn't blame both parties equally for what has gone wrong, and do not see them equally incapable of making things better; and that the Democrats are seen in a much more favorable light than the Republicans,

In that analysis you will also find that it is no longer a forgone conclusion that the Senate flips from Dem to GOP, and I would add that given the events of recent days and the GOP's very high negatives the House has to be considered in play next year.

This week we saw further evidence of this changed landscape. National CNN and Wash Post/ABC polls show Barack Obama's favorability rating making a significant upward jump.  The CNN/Opinion Research poll showed Obama in the 50s against all GOP opponents, an important milestone for a President many have described as weak, in danger.  Jobless claims were down again today, providing further evidence the economy is improving, slowly.  And we know the GOP has bungled the payroll tax debate, big time. 

The Republican Party enters 2012 having badly misplayed a strong hand this year; without a strong, unifying Presidential candidate on the horizon; truly terrible favorability numbers; and one thing I think that will become more clear over time - no obvious path for how to get back in the game on economic and security matters. 

I am running out of time, so I will come back to this last point in the next few days.  But I leave you with two things - a new op-ed by Mitt Romney this week which, honestly, I felt was truly out to lunch and so far from where the modern GOP has to go to win next year; and this recent essay of mine which argues Obama will have a much stronger case to make for his re-election next year than conventional wisdom holds. 

Happy Holidays all, and to a better year in 2012.