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They are in serious trouble
A front page Post piece this morning was devastating for the Administration. In plain simple language it made the case that Bush was finally recognizing that our work in Iraq was in serious trouble, and if anything was much likely to worsen this fall.
Also likely to worsen this fall is the economy. Some say slowdown, some say recession. Whatever happens, it is happening now, and will likely worsen as we approach November.
It has been my belief for a long time that elections are fought primarily on peace and prosperity. The sober reality for Republicans now is that on the two most salient issues facing the nation, the Middle East and broadly shared prosperity, their record has been dismal; and conditions are more likely than not to get a whole lot worse before the elections. And there is very little Bush and company can do about it.
Which is why this is shaping up not to be an anti-incumbent year, but an anti-Republican one. All polling shows that people believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction and appropriately blame those in power, which in this case are the Republicans. Few Democratic incumbents are endangered in Congress or in Gubernatorial races. Meanwhile many Republican seats are in serious jeopordy in the Senate, the House and in Statehouses. If it was an anti-incumbent year more Democrats would be in trouble. They aren't.
The tide has turned hard against the Republican Party. And it is about to get a whole lot worse.