Predicting outcomes: Polls versus Betting sites

Submitted by Ben Cahen on 1/3/08
Ben Cahen's picture

As many of you are glued to your televisions tonight to kick off the 2008 primary season, you can rest assured that Presidential politics is as interactive as ever. In the past few years political betting sites have become more and more prevalent on the internet, and now are becoming reliable sources of data on cable news shows.

You could look at the data from the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll, or you could go to a site like www.intrade.com in order to see your poll numbers. It will be interesting to see in time whether gambling sites like these will gain further credibility among political pundits.

People who put their money where their mouth is may just be a better indicator than a call center or random sample. Just like the stock market, these gamblers are taking all the information available to them in order to make the best decision on where to put their money. In sports like the National Football League, betting lines are universally accepted by analysts as the most accurate predictor of the outcome of a game. Polling for a football game on websites such as www.espn.com is actually secondary to gambling odds.

Between the rise of the Internet in the last few Presidential elections, and the increase in user participation in activities such as fantasy football, it’s not surprising that political betting sites have picked up steam. You can bet on almost anything these days. In fact, I was convinced to join a fantasy bass fishing league this past year, and I have never caught a bass or watched a bass fishing show in my life. There’s no doubt the American population will be betting on the sex of Jamie Lynn Spears’ baby in the coming months.

But as politics and the Internet get increasingly interactive, people will continue to bet on things like who will win the Green party nomination for President or what party will win the next UK election, both available at www.bodoglife.com.

Below are the odds for both the Iowa caucus and the nominations according to www.intrade.com. Get your bets in…

Iowa Caucus

Democrat

Barack Obama

61.1%

Hillary Clinton

24.5%

John Edwards

15.0%

Republican

Mike Huckabee

59.7%

Mitt Romney

40.9%

Presidential Nominee


Democrat

Hillary Clinton

61.5%

Barack Obama

29.2%

Republican

John McCain

27.4%

Rudy Guiliani

24.6%

Mitt Romney

22.3%

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