Texas Two-Step

As we move closer to the the Texas primary on March 4th, there will be increased commentary on the Latino electorate.  Texas presents the next major battle in courting Latino voters, and it is also the next major state where Latinos will play a deciding role in choosing the nominees of each party.

Last week NDN released a study of the Latino electorate in this year's primary contests that stated that among Latinos who have chosen to participate in this year's contests, 75% chose to support a Democratic candidate.  This performance presents a very disturbing development for the GOP that has prided itself on the electoral gains made among Latino voters in the past two presidential elections.  Latinos have thus far, expressed a dramatic rejection of the Republican Party and it's candidates.  Today, CNN reports about the ongoing struggle between the GOP and Latinos.

Many in the GOP feel that Senator McCain's candidacy will be able to overcome the GOP's weakness among Latinos and deliver them another victory in November 2008.  However, we are noticing that not only does McCain have a problem garnering support among Latinos, he also has a problem appealing to the GOP's conservative base.  Simon Rosenberg has written about McCain's betrayal of Latinos on the immigration battle, and the problem that it presents the GOP was recentlly also stated in the Washington Post.

Texas will present the most imprtant test to McCain this year, and trust me that Huckabee is not the reason.  Texas is a good mix of conservative voters as well as Latino voters.  McCain will have to decide if he is going to continue his recent path of "Spin Talk Express" and adapting to whatever position he needs to win the Republican Primary, or if he is going to revert to the "Maverick McCain" that is more electable in the General Election.  If McCain is not able to garner significant support from Latino voters in Texas, and he continues to steer to the right on immigration, the GOP will lose any opportunities that may have existed to win Latinos in the General election.  McCain has a serious decision to make in Texas, does he care about Latinos or does he care about the extreme right of the Republican Party.  Until he makes a decision we will see the Texas Two-Step from McCain on full display for the next two weeks.