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Gallup documents an Obama "surge"
A few days ago I speculated that Obama's defacto primary win would result in a bounce or surge for him in the polls. Gallup today documents what is in the process of becoming a major public opinion surge for Senator Obama, one whose size is suprizing given that Senator Clinton is still in the race. From the Gallup release, Key Clinton Constituencies Moving Toward Obama:
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking has documented a surge in Democratic voters' support for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton in recent days, swelling from a four percentage-point lead for Obama during the first part of May to a record 16-point lead for him in polling from May 16-18.
Prior to now, Obama's largest lead over Clinton was 11 percentage points, achieved briefly in mid-April. However, for most of the past month, Clinton and Obama have been fairly closely matched, with neither sustaining a significant lead for more than a few days. It thus remains to be seen whether this improvement in Obama's standing is a variation of the same pattern, or represents a turning point in the race.
Obama Swamps Clinton Among Young Voters and Others
The broadening of Obama's appeal for the nomination seen in Gallup's May 16-18 polling is fairly widespread, with the percentage favoring him increasing among most demographic categories of Democratic voters. However, as a result, certain groups that were already highly supportive of Obama for the nomination -- men, 18- to 29-year-olds, postgrads, and upper-income Democrats -- are now overwhelmingly in his camp. Obama is currently favored among these groups by a 2-to-1 margin, or better, over Clinton.
At the same time, support for Clinton among some of her traditionally stalwart support groups -- women, Easterners, whites, adults with no college education, and Hispanics -- has fallen below 50%.
The only major demographic group still supporting Clinton to the tune of 51% or more is women aged 50 and older. This group's preferences have changed little during May, at the same time that Clinton's support among younger men (those 18 to 49) has declined by nearly 10 points.