Poll Dancing

The national polls have shown a tightening of the Presidential race in the last couple weeks with U.S. Sen. John McCain pulling even or ahead of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  However, if the last several elections have taught us anything, the outcome will be decided in the battleground states, not in national media polls.

Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have always been historically swing states; This year polls are suggesting that Virginia and to a lesser extent Georgia and North Carolina might also be competitive.

Over the next 6 weeks we will look at these races as the candidates, after two years and millions of dollars come towards the finish line neck and neck, with Obama leading 168 to 159 in the race to 270 electoral votes.

Today, polls in 6 states show the race tight but among those that Obama is leading, he increases his electoral vote lead from 9 to 31.

COLORADO (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

FLORIDA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, McCain - 48%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

MICHIGAN (PPP-D): Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.

OHIO (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 51%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 1%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%.

VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Others - 2%.

VIRGINIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%, McKinney - 0%.

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

After these numbers are figured in, Senator Obama extends his lead to 215 to 184.

In recent days polls have come out in Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Dakota showing Senator Obama leading in those states and Senator McCain leading in Indiana; When factored in this brings the electoral equation to Obama 245 - McCain 189.

To armchair this yourself the Washington Post has a great calculator.  My map says Obama 308 - McCain 230. 

*John McCain seems to have locked up Alaska's three electoral votes with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Early August polling showed McCain 44% - Obama 39% with Lillehammer hero and native son Tommy Moe garnering 11% and singer songwriter Jewel trailing the field with 6%.  Today, Moe and Jewel are under the margin of error and McCain has opened up an 11 point lead.