Poll Dancing 2

A new group of polls released in the last 48 hours give us a better picture of where the presidential campaign might go if the election were held today. As Simon suggests, the race has steadied.

ALASKA (Rasmussen): McCain - 64%, Obama - 33%.
MICHIGAN (CNN/Time): Obama - 45%, McCain - 42%, Nader - 6%, Barr - 2%, McKinney - 1%.
MICHIGAN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 45%, McCain - 44%, Others - 2%.
MISSOURI (CNN/Time): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 2%.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (CNN/Time): Obama - 48%, McCain - 43%, Nader - 4%, Barr - 2%.
NEW MEXICO (Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%.
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): McCain - 48%, Obama - 44%, Barr - 4%.
NORTH DAKOTA (Rasmussen): McCain - 55%, Obama - 41%.
PENNSYLVANIA (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Others - 3%.
VIRGINIA (CNN/Time): McCain - 49%, Obama - 43%, Nader - 3%, Barr - 1%.
WEST VIRGINIA (WSAV-TV/MBE): McCain - 44%, Obama - 39%.
WISCONSIN (Strategic Vision-R): Obama - 46%, McCain - 43%, Others - 3%.
MONTANA (Rasmussen): McCain - 53%, Obama - 42%.
NEW JERSEY (Farleigh Dickinson Univ.): Obama - 47%, McCain - 41%, Others - 4%.
OKLAHOMA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 65%, Obama - 32%, Others - 1%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

Factoring in these polling numbers, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama grows his lead to 266-238 over U.S. Sen. John McCain, leaving him four electoral votes short of assuming the presidency, if the election were held today. Based on these data, Oregon and Florida will determine the next president. Oregon is the only swing state without recent polling, but it seems exceedingly likely to go for Obama. Florida, however, is a dead heat. To win the White House, McCain would need to win both Oregon and Florida; Obama need only win one of the two.

In most swing states, the race is within one or two points, leaving it easily inside the margin of error. Simply put: these states could go either way. If McCain were  to flip Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states where he is trailing by two or less points, he takes a 276-228 electoral majority.

If Obama were to flip New Mexico and Indiana, the two states he is trailing by two or less points, his electoral total would run to 282, 12 more than the necessary 270.

McCain's brilliant pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin is already paying dividends: he has opened up a 31-point lead in delegate-rich (three) Alaska, 64-33 (100% sample).