The Polls Five Days Out - "Not Dead Yet."
The Kos Daily Track now has it 50-45, and the Pollster.com average is 49-44. Earlier this week these measures had it at 7. Today it is 5.
For the last several weeks we've been offering an analysis which anticipated McCain getting up into the mid 40s in the final ten days, reclaiming natural ground lost due to his very shaky fall campaign. We argued that For McCain to make the race competitive rather than just interesting he would also need to see a drop in Obama's number, something, importantly, that has not conclusively happened yet. There also isn't any evidence that McCain has made inroads in the key battlegrounds, places where the superior financing and ground operation of Team Obama will insulate their campaign to some degree from any late national tightening trends.
So, five days out where are we? Obama still holds a commanding lead with McCain showing some sustained signs of life. The Arizona Senator is in the immortal words of Monty Python "not dead yet."
- Simon Rosenberg's blog
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