John McCain is the big loser tonight

Events of recent weeks have changed the outlook for 2008. 

On the Republican side, Frist and Allen have been very damaged.  Many of the other leading candidates - Romney, Guliani, Gingrich - have significant problems.  And their frontrunner, John McCain, has been damaged by his embrace of the President's failed policy in Iraq, the issue that is causing the GOP so much trouble.  McCain has also been weakened in the Republican Primary universe, as his championing of immigration reform has made him unacceptable to a sizeable part of a the electorate he needs to win his nomination. Their frontrunner and field look much less formable then a few days ago. 

On the Democratic side, Warner's exit and Kerry's stumbles have opened the door for Barack Obama much wider.  If he gets in, the Democratic field all of a sudden looks much more interesting, dynamic and stronger than the weakened Republican field. 

In terms of the electoral college, the Dems have significantly strengthened their national position.  They have deepened their hold on their base in the northern part of the country.  Ohio, the most important swing state in the country, has swung wildly towards the Democrats.  More gains will be made in the West, a region of the country trending much more Democrat.  In the West, immigration has dramatically alienated Lations from the Republicans, further pushing states like AZ, CO, NM and NV towards the Democrats. 

Looking ahead to 2008, I think it is fair to say that Democrat's chances have significantly improved in recent weeks, and the big loser of the night is John McCain.