2010 Latino Electoral Performance

Executive Summary

This report uses exit poll data provided by the National Election Pool (NEP) from the 2010 and 2006 election cycles to provide a comparison and analyses for the electoral participation of Hispanic voters. This data was selected to provide an apples-to-apples comparison of the two election cycles. The NEP does not provide data on Hispanic voter participation for all states, so only states with data available were selected.

The most immediate observation is that Hispanics increased their share of participation in every statewide contest with the exception of the race for Governor in Illinois. In addition, Hispanics maintained their national share of 8% as they did in 2006. The 2006 election cycle was covered as one is which Hispanics would make their voice heard, and received positive attention. The national narrative in 2010 was much different and most media and pundits speculated that Hispanics would not be as active this election cycle. A review of the exit poll data shows that their speculation was wrong, and that Hispanic voters were extremely engaged in the 2010 election cycle.

There were several races in which Hispanic voters proved pivotal, but the race that provides the most clear indication of the role that Hispanic voters played in the 2010 election cycle was the contest for the US Senate seat held by US Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. This match-up provided a clear contrast between a candidate courting the Hispanic vote, and a candidate alienating the Hispanic vote. US Senate Majority Leader Reid won decisively among Hispanic voters and his support among Hispanic voters provided him the margin of victory.

The data shows that Hispanic voters have demonstrated a commitment to electoral participation over the past few election cycles. This commitment to electoral participation is important as it will ensure that candidates continue to court them, and will ensure that their issues gain increased attention from candidates.