Iraq

... And it all comes down to this, at 2:15 PM eastern the Senate will vote cloture on a motion to proceed to the Defense Authorization Legislation. As of now, Defense Authorization does not contain the DREAM Act, however Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has indicated that he will attach the legislation as an amendment if it passes cloture today.

It should be very clear, that while Republican's currently bemoan the fact that the DREAM Act is not germane to Defense Authorization, and say that it's inclusion will cost their vote, DREAM is not actually attached to the bill that will be voted on today.

The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2011 CRS bill summary shows that the DREAM Act has not yet been added as an amendment.

Though there is wide support for the DREAM Act, among Democrats, and military personnel, at this point it is not looking very good for the Defense Authorization bill as a whole.  Peter Shrag of the LA Times has more in his story Dashing the DREAM Act:

The chances that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid can deliver on his promise to move the so-called DREAM Act toward passage in the Senate this week range from slim to none.

But the announcement that it would be added as an amendment to the Defense Department authorization bill has energized pro-immigrant groups, even as it underlines the fact that there'll be no comprehensive immigration reform any time in the near future. Not this year, certainly, and probably not next year either.

The article also does a great job at showing exactly what is at stake for immigrants:

The bipartisan DREAM (for Development, Relief and Education for Alien Minors) Act, which was to have been part of comprehensive reform, would make it possible for as many as 2.1 million undocumented young immigrants to start on the path to legalization. Roughly 26% are in California. In the Senate, the leading sponsors are Republican Richard G. Lugar of Indiana and Democrat Richard J. Durbin of Illinois. In the House, they are Democrats Howard L. Berman of Valley Village and Lucille Roybal-Allard of East Los Angeles and Republican Lincoln Diaz-Balart of Florida.

Even if the DOD Authorization fails to move past a cloture vote today and there is no vote on the DREAM Act, it is possible that the legislation is punted to a lame duck session after the elections.

Washington Post writer Edward Schumacher-Matos notes that even if there is no vote, there may be a positive outcome for Democrats and Activists. Matos has the full story in his article Dems playing politics with immigration -- and it's good policy:

And it's about time the Democrats got politically tough, because the amendment is also good policy.

This might also help Democratic candidates in states such as California, Texas, Colorado and New Mexico, where the Latino vote makes a difference. Immigration is second only to jobs in importance to Latinos, according to polls, but they were feeling forsaken by Obama and the Democrats over stalled comprehensive reform.

Julie Preston of the New York Times has written a piece on the drop in the number of illegal immigrants in the U.S.

The report entitled Number of Illegal Immigrants in the U.S. Drops, Study Says, cites a recent Pew Hispanic Report  U.S. Unauthorized Immigration Flows Are Down Sharply Since Mid-Decade:

The number of illegal immigrants in the United States, after peaking at 12 million in 2007, fell to about 11.1 million in 2009, the first clear decline in two decades....

The reduction came primarily from decreases among illegal immigrants from Latin American countries other than Mexico, the report found. The number of Mexicans living in the United States without legal immigration status did not change significantly from 2007 to 2009. Some seven million Mexicans make up about 60 percent of all illegal immigrants, still by far the largest national group, the Pew Center said.

However Preston notes that there is an even more important number cited in the report, the 11.1 million immigrants still in the country.

But the figure that may be most sobering to all sides in the increasingly contentious immigration debate is the estimate that more than 11 million illegal immigrants remain here. The Pew report shows that despite myriad pressures, there was no mass exodus of those immigrants to their home countries, especially not to Mexico.

This statistic indicates that despite all of the border security legislation, and all of the press coverage surrounding immigration, immigrants are not leaving.

As important as politicians think drafting legislation solely designed to secure borders, it is also equally important to figure out a way to bring those 11.1 million currently living out of the shadows.

A lot of immigration news this week, enjoy:

Washington Post - Headless bodies and other immigration tall tales in Arizona - Dana Milbank

The Arizona governor, seemingly determined to repel every last tourist dollar from her pariah state, has sounded a new alarm about border violence. "Our law enforcement agencies have found bodies in the desert either buried or just lying out there that have been beheaded," she announced on local television.

But those in fear of losing parts north of the neckline can relax. There's not a follicle of evidence to support Brewer's claim.

The Arizona Guardian Web site checked with medical examiners in Arizona's border counties and the coroners said they had never seen an immigration-related beheading. I called and e-mailed Brewer's press office requesting documentation of decapitation; no reply.

Two months ago, the Arizona Republic published an exhaustive report that found that, according to statistics from the FBI and Arizona police agencies, crime in Arizona border towns has been "essentially flat for the past decade." For example, "In 2000, there were 23 rapes, robberies and murders in Nogales, Ariz. Last year, despite nearly a decade of population growth, there were 19 such crimes." The Pima County sheriff reported that "the border has never been more secure."

Arizona Republic - Violence is not up on Arizona border despite Mexican drug war- Dennis Wagner

FBI Uniform Crime Reports and statistics provided by police agencies, in fact, show that the crime rates in Nogales, Douglas, Yuma and other Arizona border towns have remained essentially flat for the past decade, even as drug-related violence has spiraled out of control on the other side of the international line. Statewide, rates of violent crime also are down.

Los Angeles Times - Opinion - What do they really think about immigration? Don't ask

NPR - GOP Faces Internal Divide On Changes To Immigration - Mara Liasson

Some prominent conservatives are speaking out in favor of the kind of comprehensive immigration bill that many Republicans oppose — one that would include border security and then a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

As a leading evangelical conservative, Richard Land's credentials are impeccable. He heads the public policy arm of the Southern Baptist Convention, and from that influential perch he's been urging his fellow conservatives to rethink their opposition to the immigration overhaul.

Colbert Report - Arturo Rodriguez President of UFW

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Arizona Daily Star - Tucson firms oppose SB 1070 - Kimberly Matas

Nearly 90 Tucson business owners are showing their resistance to SB 1070 - the immigration law set to take effect July 29 - through a new "We Mean Business" campaign.

Participating business owners demonstrate their opposition to the new law with "We Mean Business" signs in the windows of their establishments. Many of the owners agree there is a need for immigration reform; however they do not think the new law is the most effective approach.

NY Daily News - Activists outside MLB offices urge Bud Selig to take stand, move 2011 All-Star Game from Arizona - Michael O'Keeffe

Arizona Daily Star - Fight SB 1070, artists urged - Rhonda Bodfield 

A group of artists, backed by U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva, unveiled a new coalition to fight Arizona's new immigration law Thursday, offering an alternative for acts that might otherwise cancel performances in protest.

Grijalva, who called for a limited boycott to pressure the state to reconsider the law, said artists have historically been at the forefront of social change through words and images.

Arizona Republic - Fund tied to SB 1070 nears $500,000 Donations pour in to Brewer's legal-defense repository from across U.S. - Ginger Rough

Residents throughout the United States have contributed nearly half a million dollars to a legal-defense fund set up by Gov. Jan Brewer to help fight lawsuits related to Senate Bill 1070.

As of Thursday, the fund had a nearly $500,000 balance - the result of thousands of contributions from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The bulk of the money, more than $330,000 of it, has rolled in this week, in the days following the federal government's decision to sue Arizona over the new immigration law.

The Daily Show - Arizona 911 -

Thanks to NDN alum Travis Valentine for sending this fascinating press briefing along in which Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are asked at length by a reporter about how the new technologies and tools of the 21st century are coming into play in the context of national security.

The reporter clearly has the Green Tech Revolution in Iran (as described by Dan) on the mind when she asks Gates and Mullen about Twitter, Facebook and other communications tools.

In that vein, we've heard from the State Department and the Oval Office about 21st century statecraft, but this is the first time I've seen the Pentagon weigh in.

In the press briefing, which was broadcast on C-SPAN 3, Gates talked about how such technologies have made it much harder for oppressive regimes to shut down communications within a country -- a development he considers good for national security.

Interestingly, when asked if either of them have Facebook pages, Gates stumbled and said he didn't understand the new technologies such as Twitter, etc. However, Mullen took up the slack, informing reporters that he Twitters and that not only are new tools important for the development of democracy, they are critical to the Pentagon's efforts to keep in touch with its forces, whose average age, according to Mullen, is "20-ish." Exactly. The Millennial Generation.

Gates bounced back, agreeing that Mullen's point was critical and in fact, the Pentagon was behind in this department but ready to catch up. He also noted -- correctly -- that in addition to reaching young service members, such technology could be used to reach young people around the globe in an effort to educate them about U.S. defense policy.

The NDN team has been writing about Iran throughout this dramatic week. Simon's essay about President Barack Obama and Iran has been featured prominently on Huffington Post for several days and he also wrote compellingly about Iran and the global politics of the mobile age. Dan also has served up several insightful commentaries, including this one on social media in Iran.

Additionally, if you haven't been seen it yet, check out Huffington Post's Nico Pitney, who is doing an amazing job -- from DC -- of liveblogging events in Iran as they unfold.

You can watch the full Pentagon briefing with Gates and Mullen here:

NDN, a leading Washington, DC-based think tank, is adding major capacity to its key policy areas with the appointment of three new Fellows and a much-expanded role for one of its current Fellows. With the addition of James Crabtree of London, Nelson Cunningham of Washington, DC, and Joe Garcia of Miami as Fellows and a bigger role for current Fellow Mike Hais of Los Angeles, NDN will significantly increase the range and depth of its commentary.

James Crabtree, NDN Fellow: Based in London, Crabtree, an editor at Prospect, the UK’s leading monthly political magazine, has spent the last decade working in politics and journalism on both sides of the Atlantic. In Britain, he was a policy advisor in the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit, wrote for the Economist and served in senior roles at the Insitute for Public Policy Research and various other UK think tanks. In the United States, Crabtree attended Harvard’s Kennedy School as a Fulbright Scholar and also worked as senior policy advisor to NDN's Globalization Initiative.

Crabtree will write about progressive politics from the UK and Europe, focusing broadly on what people "across the pond" think about U.S. issues. He also will provide perspectives on globalization, contributing commentary on current events and from his own travels such as his recent trip to Pakistan to look into the revolution in Pakistani media. Crabtree also will write about new technologies and media tools, analyzing the broad area of government transparency, openess and new techniques for political campaigning.

Nelson W. Cunningham, Chair, NDN’s Latin America Policy Initiative: Widely recognized as one of the nation’s foremost experts on U.S.-Latin America relations, Cunningham was special advisor to President Bill Clinton for Western Hemisphere affairs and advised the Obama campaign and transition team on Latin American policy issues. He is managing partner of McLarty Associates, an international consulting firm based in Washington, DC.
Cunningham will promote NDN’s long-standing commitment to comprehensive immigration reform, as well as to a progressive vision of globalization that looks to link the interests of Latin American and other developing nations more deeply with the United States. The Latin America Policy Initiative will focus on raising awareness of these issues in Washington, using NDN’s excellent relationships on Capitol Hill, the Administration and the NGO community. The initiative will also build concrete ties between the United States and our neighbors by sponsoring leadership training programs for promising young Americans in key Latin American countries.

Joe Garcia, NDN Fellow: Garcia, who previously served for more than three years as head of NDN’s Hispanic Strategy Center, has a long history of involvement in Cuban and Latin American issues and the fields of energy, foreign policy and human rights. In 1994, the late Governor Lawton Chiles appointed him to the Florida Public Service Commission (PSC), where he advocated for lower monthly utility bills on behalf of Florida's families. In 1998, during Gov. Jeb Bush’s Administration, Garcia was elected Chairman of the PSC.

In 2000, the Cuban Amercian National Foundation named Garcia Executive Director. At CANF, he helped reshape U.S. Cuba policy and was a force for moderation in the Cuban American community. In 2004, NDN named Garcia head of its Hispanic Strategy Center for NDN. Garcia, based in Miami, serves on the Board of Directors of CANF and is one of the leading voices on U.S.-Cuba policy.

Garcia will write about U.S.-Cuban relations and other hemispheric issues.

Michael D. Hais, NDN Fellow: Hais, currently a Fellow at NDN and the New Policy Institute since November 2008 and affiliated with NDN since 2006, served for a decade as Vice President, Entertainment Research and for more than 22 years overall at Frank N. Magid Associates where he conducted audience research for hundreds of television stations, cable channels, and program producers in nearly all 50 states and more than a dozen foreign countries. Prior to joining Magid in 1983, Hais was a political pollster for Michigan Democrats and an Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Detroit. He received a B.A. from the University of Iowa, an M.A. from the University of Wisconsin at Madison and a Ph.D. from the University of Maryland, all in political science. He is the co-author of Millennial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube, and the Future of American Politics (Rutgers University Press, 2008), which New York Times book critic Michiko Kakutani named as one of her 10 favorite books of 2008.

Hais, with Millennial Makeover co-author Morley Winograd, is one of the nation’s leading voices on the Millennial Generation, which has been the focus of much of his work for NDN. In his newly expanded role, Hais will examine important and interesting data from available public surveys and surveys commissioned by NDN and its affiliates. Themes and analysis will include attitudes toward race and ethnicity, the economy, foreign affairs, the Millennial Generation, but will not be limited to those topics. Hais is based in Los Angeles.

The Washington Post has an excellent piece today taking an indepth look at whats next in Iraq.  It begins:

BAGHDAD - Maybe it was the only shot heard for days in a neighborhood once ordered by the cadence of gunfire. Perhaps it was the smiles at checkpoints and the shouts of Iraqi policemen navigating the always snarled traffic. "God's mercy on your parents," they beseeched. "God's blessings on you." Maybe it was the music box still playing "Santa Claus Is Coming to Town" at a kiosk overflowing with Christmas tree decorations and heart-shaped red pillows.

For anyone returning to Baghdad after spending time here during its darkest days two years ago, when it was paralyzed by sectarian hatred and overrun by gunmen sowing despair, the conclusion seemed inescapable.

"The war has ended," said Heidar al-Abboudi, a street merchant.

The war in Iraq is indeed over, at least the conflict as it was understood during its first five years: insurgency, communal cleansing, gangland turf battles and an anarchic, often futile quest to survive. In other words, civil war -- though civil war was always too tidy a term for it. The entropy, for now at least, has run its course. So have many of the forces the United States so dangerously unleashed with its 2003 invasion, turning Iraq into an atomized, fractured land seized by a paroxysm of brutality. In that Iraq, the Americans were the final arbiter and, as a result, deprived anything they left behind of legitimacy.

Not to say that there is peace in Iraq. As many people are killed today as on any day in 2003 and 2004. Nor is there victory. For any Iraqi, the word, translated into Arabic, draws a dumbfounded look. Victory for whom? Certainly not the tens of thousands of civilians -- perhaps many more -- killed in the frenzied clashes of those once inchoate forces.

Rather, it is the day after.

Baghdad feels much as southern Lebanon did after an asymmetrical war there in 2006, between Israel and Hezbollah, the Shiite Muslim movement that fought Israel to a draw. Survivors rose from the rubble of their homes, offices and stores with the satisfied smile of survival -- in war, its own victory. Then they beheld the destruction the fighting had wrought around them. Their faces turned grim as they realized the task at hand.

It is perhaps the day before, too.

"We don't know what's next," Shidrak George, a bystander, said April 9, 2003, as he watched men vainly assault Saddam Hussein's statue in Firdaus Square with chains, a sledgehammer and a cascade of rocks before making way for a bulky Marine M88 armored recovery vehicle to pull it down. The vehicle stopped for no one. It didn't have to.

He said everything remained ghamidh -- mysterious and unclear.

"We want to know how this turns out."

Here for more.

Of necessity, President-elect Barack Obama's first act after November 4 was to address economic security. He has assembled his team and plans are moving forward.

In Chicago tomorrow, Obama is expected to name his national security team. The terrorist attacks in Mumbai have given this announcement added signifigance and necessity. We've all heard that U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton is expected to be named Secretary of State, but who are the others?

According to ABC News, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano will be Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security; attorney Eric Holder, Attorney General; Retired Marine General Jim Jones, National Security Adviser; retired Adm. Dennis Blair, Director of National Intelligence; Susan Rice, Ambassador to the United Nations; and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who will stay on in that role for at least a year.  

Napolitano has an excellent reputation as governor of Arizona and understands the critical issue of and need for comprehensive immigration reform, a top priority for NDN. She also no doubt understands the critical importance of U.S. relations with countries in central and south America.

Holder served in the Clinton Administration's Justice Department, helped vet Obama's vice presidential pick and will be the nation's first African-American attroney general.

The New York Times has an intriguing profile of Obama's alleged pick for national security adviser, retired Marine General Jim Jones.

The Washington Post also has an in-depth report on Obama's first meeting with Adm. Michael Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who met with Obama in Chicago some nine days ago.

According to the article, many in the military traditionally do not trust Democrats or "intellectuals," as some might call Obama.

Although exit polls did not break out active-duty voters, it is virtually certain that McCain won the military vote.

In an October survey by the Military Times, nearly 70 percent of more than 4,000 officers and enlisted respondents said they favored McCain, while about 23 percent preferred Obama. Only African American service members gave Obama a majority.

In exit polls, those who said they had "ever served in the U.S. military" made up 15 percent of voters and broke 54 percent for McCain to 44 percent for Obama. "As a culture, we are more conservative and Republican," a senior officer said.

However, the article goes on to report that Obama's meetings so far have gone over well with a military. According to news reports, he has come across as disciplined, a person who will listen if not always act on the military's advice and a realist. Hillary Clinton also is popular at the Pentagon and Jones is a strong leader.

Although not technically considered "national security" appointments, make sure to check out Simon's essay on the importance of G-20 ambassadorial posts. In a world where it is no longer possible to separate the issues of terrorism from those of globalization, these are massively important picks. 

From the AP:

BAGHDAD (AP) - Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice and Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Thursday the two countries have agreed that timetables should be set for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the battle-scarred country.

Appearing together at a news conference, Rice and Zebari mutually asserted that a final agreement between Washington and Baghdad on a withdrawal plan and accompanying strategic framework pact is close to fruition - but not there yet.

Just a quickie. This clearly has been a bad, bad week for U.S. Sen. John McCain, but I think he hit rock bottom with his tortured -- and just plain wrong -- description of the surge in Iraq at a press conference in the cheese aisle -- the cheese aisle -- of a supermarket. McCain, a true military hero, was supposed to be the candidate strong on national defense.

It was supposed to be a wedge issue, an extra sharp distinction between him and U.S. Sen. Barack Obama. Instead, he's left standing in front of plastic packages of neon colored cheese slices. McCain looked even more overripe than usual under the bright fluorescent lights. He looked whey bad. The grating episode got started when McCain -- blinking even more than ususal -- did an interview with Katie Couric and shredded the surge timeline. Strangely, CBS sliced the gaffe right out. But in the world of blogging and YouTube, it quickly ripened, finding its way to the political surface in no time; CBS quickly aired it in its entirety.

MSNBC's Keith Olbermann highlighted the fromage case presser with a handy-dandy timeline. You can watch it here:

McCain's wheel down the cheese aisle may seem funny, but this is no laughing matter. This is only the latest in a series of frightening mistakes that curdles my blood. The bottom rind: this man is not fit to be president.

Austin, TX - The Administration agrees to a "time horizon" for removing our troops from Iraq. A senior diplomat is sitting down with an Iran nuclear negotiator. Secretary Gates publically calls for troops to be moved from Iraq to Afghanistan. The EPA releases a report confirming the very real and imminent threat of climate change. Bush agrees to cut greenhouse emissions at the G8. Taken together, this seems like an across-the-board repudiation of many fiercely held Bush Administation positions, all closely associated with the Vice President.

Where's Dick and his team of neocons in all this? There are of course many areas where the Administration seems deeply dug in, but change has come to the White House. Why, for what reasons, this is all happening now, it is too soon to tell. But change nevertheless has come to the White House in the final months of the Bush Administration.

1030am - Lots of talk here about Maliki's endorsement of Obama's timetable for withdrawal. What an extraordinary moment in what has been a remarkable political year, and what will no doubt be an important, even historic, trip abroad by U.S. Sen. Barack Obama. Even Maliki has joined the neocon repudiation chorus.

1035am - Speaker Pelosi is doing a remarkable job here at Netroots Nation. I am very proud of her for recognizing the importance of this gathering, and her thoughtful and powerful presence here this morning.

1050am - Asked about her agenda, the Speaker said health care, her innovation agenda, infrastructure and green energy. And throughout her 10-ten talk, her language was modern, her understanding of the issues detailed, her ability to weave a narrative compelling. I'm not sure too many politicians of either Party could have done as good as a job as she is doing this morning.

1120am - Gore has arrived, and is just knocking the ball out of the park.  He is as good as I've ever seen him.  He has captured the room, and I have to believe has now officially engaged/involved the netroots in his crusade.  This is an important day in the development of a national movement to solve the climate crisis. 

Amazingly, Gore and Pelosi are now just sitting and taking questions. This has been a great morning.  Kudos to Gina for her stage management of this powerful session.