End of the Conservative Ascendency

Clues About Sen. McCain's Position On Issues of Importance to Hispanics

In a piece in the Washington Post today, Marcela Sanchez discusses U.S. Senator Barack Obama's "Clues for Wooing the Latino Vote." Ms. Sanchez discusses the point made in NDN's report on Hispanics Rising that the harsh tone of the immigration debate on the part of Republicans has been perceived by many Hispanics as anti-Hispanic as opposed to anti-undocumented, and has thus cost Republican candidates votes - and elections - since 2006. However, Ms. Sanchez makes a distinction between the perception of John McCain and that of the Republican Party among Latinos; based on Sen. McCain's current stance on a number of issues, I do not see such a distinction.

As Marcela Sanchez cites herself, the polls show Sen. Obama ahead of Sen. John McCain by at least 62-29 percent. She argues that many of those Latino Obama supporters might be in States that are traditionally Democratic, however, the polls are taken at the national level. While it is true that Hispanics are definitely not monolithic, the fact is that most Hispanics are concentrated in the Southern and Western swing states, and Florida:

Ms. Sanchez posits that it is in these states, New Mexico, Florida, Nevada and Colorado,"where McCain could connect with enough Latinos to make a difference." I disagree for one main reason - Sen. McCain could not even win Latinos in his own home state, where about 30% of the population is Hispanic. In the 2008 primary elections in Arizona, the exit poll data showed 68% of all Hispanics who voted cast their vote for a Democrat, and only 32%voted for a Republican. John McCain's share of that 32% was 21.76% of the entire electorate. This is particularly dramatic because when he ran for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2004, Sen. McCain was able to secure 72% of the Hispanic vote - that is a fifty percent drop in votes from the Hispanic community of his home state in just four years. Which begs the question - who is really in the tougher spot with Latinos? The candidate who won his Senate election with 82% of the Hispanic vote in his own state and currently has a lead of over 30% among Hispanics nationally? Or the candidate who has lost fifty percent of the Hispanic voters in his own State who supported him in 2004? Mind you, this is not to say that it will not be a challenge for both candidates to secure the Hispanic vote, nor is it a matter of favoring one candidate over another, it is a matter of wanting to encourage the media and readers to provide a more detailed analysis and not buy into sound bytes.

The piece also describes Sen. McCain as a, "a key sponsor of legislation creating a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants," with, "a good track record with Latino concerns." I beg to differ - the story that is clear as day, but for some reason seriously underreported, is that John McCain was once a leader on the issue of immigration reform, but when the going got tough last year - once he decided to become a Presidential candidate - that took importance over his duties as Senator and he stopped attending the high-level meetings and brainstorming sessions that were necessary in order to get this difficult legislation passed. There is agreement among many in the offices of key legislators and advocacy groups that were there on the ground during the immigration debate: when the going got tough on immigration and other issues important to Latinos, John McCain was no longer in sight.

Some individuals mentioned in the article differentiate between Sen. McCain, the candidate, and his political party; they attribute his declining popularity to the negativity associated with Republicans, but believe Sen. McCain can remain above that sentiment as he, "will remain sufficiently moderate on immigration,despite some politically expedient tips of the hat to certain segments of the conservative base." I would say his actions have been much more than "a tip of the hat"- there is no difference at this time between John McCain and his political party. He is the Republican Party and he has shown this by certainly not being "moderate" on the issue of immigration. He has actively spoken in public rejecting and denouncing the trailblazing immigration legislation of which he was once a sponsor. Maybe because it is a sad story to tell, but I find that this story is not told.

Our report agrees with the conclusion in this piece that immigration is an issue that mobilizes Hispanic voters; however, I would not say that Hispanics are not supporting John McCain as part of a "protest vote" against his party; while that might be the case in part, it is a protest vote against the way John McCain's position has, in no uncertain terms, flipped on the issue of immigration. As much as his campaign or the media may try to deny it, there is no denying the facts, as reflected in an excerpt of our Hispanics Rising presentation:

 

 

 

 

You'll note that one of these slides cites to Meet the Press; at the time this blog was being drafted to post, a man that I look to as an example of the type of professional and person I can only hope to be, Tim Russert, passed away. My thoughts and prayers are with his family.

 

Habeas Corpus

Normally I focus on green issues, but I want to post this morning about something equally important. 

America's resilience shone through the important decision of the Supreme Court yesterday to restore the right of habeas corpus petitions to Guantanamo detaineees.  In one more sign that the long, dark night of the Bush era is coming to an end, the Court rejected the Administration's suspension of civil liberties for detainees and its legal theory that because Guantanamo lies ninety miles off the coast of Florida, it is exempt from US law.  In an opinion likely to be ready by many law students in future course on Constitutional Law, Justice Kennedy laid out strict conditions for invoking the suspension of habeas corpus clause in the Constitution--namely that Congress must find that rebellion or foreign invasion is actually underway--a line in the Constitution that the Administration and Congress had chosen to gloss over.

Why care about habeas corpus?  The Latin words may sound unfamiliar to the Ipod-acclimated ear, but, in essence, they mean that people arrested have the right to a trial.  Countries that don't have what Britsh jurists dubbed the "Great Writ" can arrest someone and that's the end of it.  The person disappears.  Without the right of court review there is absolutely nothing to prevent Soviet-style "disappearances" of people down the memory hole beyond the reach of relatives, lawyers or a court.  Thus while on one level, the writ is just a piece of paper that a judge issues asking that a prisoner be brought before him for a hearing, practically speaking it is the guaranty of rule of law, freedom and the separation of powers.  For this reason, the right of habeas corpus is the only right mentioned in the Constitution itself--as opposed to the Bill of Rights--which was adopted later.  The Framers grasped its importance. 

It should be deeply gratifying to people that cherish freedom that five of the justices grasp it as well.  Justice Kennedy peering deeply into the history of the writ in his opinion, wrote that the political branches "must not have the power to switch the constitution on and off at will." 

Yet in equal measure as his opinion was heartening, the minority opinion was distrubing.  Judge Roberts, in describing habeas corpus as just a "procedural" matter argued this is all much do about nothing.

We should be mindful as today's New York Times notes, that the Court's margin was only 5 to 4.

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John McCain and Barack Obama to address major Latino organization - National Council of La Raza National Convention

The LA Times reports that The National Council of La Raza, a leading Latino civil rights and advocacy organization, announced today that both presidential contenders have accepted invitations to speak at its July 12-15 convention in San Diego. No details yet on when each will speak, but their appearances likely will be among the most important they make during the month. As NDN has been actively pointing out, both the Democratic and Republican parties recognize the growing power of the Hispanic electorate. The LA Times interviewed Simon as it reported yesterday that Obama continues to lead McCain among Latino voters: Obama is "doing better than anyone imagined at this point," said Simon Rosenberg, head of the group NDN, which specializes in Latino outreach. "But he does have room to grow." The latest polls show Obama has a surprising advantage over McCain and is favored by up to 62% of voters. Below the LA Times graphic:

The Growing Influence of NDN's Hispanics Rising Report Reflected in the Media

On May 28, NDN released its most recent report, Hispanics Rising, which, using U.S. Census Bureau and exit polling data, documented the emergence of a new, highly energized and increasingly pro-Democratic Hispanic electorate. By all accounts, this bloc will have an enormous impact on the 2008 election. In Hispanics Rising, NDN identifies a trend that is underway and articulates the significance of the Hispanic vote and the differences within the Hispanic community.  After having been reviewed by experts, media, public officials and members of the private sector for weeks, we continue to see how the data collected by NDN, our analysis and the issues we highlight are influencing debate, and we would like to share the coverage of our report with our readers.

The St. Louis Post Dispatch wrote that the old electoral map had been thrown out with new southwestern states in play in an article by Bill Lambrecht  

"...Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg contended that McCain's ad buy in the Southwest was a 'sign of weakness, not strength.'  Despite Obama's problems with Hispanics, Rosenberg, president of the New Democratic Network think tank, argued that McCain has no chance to match George W. Bush's success in drawing 40 percent of the Hispanic vote.  'Obama is going to be able to communicate in Spanish that John McCain threw Hispanics overboard when he dropped the immigration bill,' Rosenberg said, referring to McCain's decision to renounce some of his moderate views on immigration."

However, while discussing NDN's report with columnist Andres Oppenheimer of the Miami Herald, Simon also was quick to point out Barack Obama's challenges with the ever-growing Hispanic electorate:

Hispanics will be Obama's big challenge. "The latest national polls show that Obama is showing surprising strength among Latino voters, given the weakness that he showed in the primaries," says NDN president Simon Rosenberg.  In the same article, our friend and pollster, Sergio Bendixen, explains the relevance of our NDN's research by pointing out, "The Latino vote will be more important than ever in this year's election....The election may be decided by Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada, where the Hispanic vote can decide who wins in those states.''  According to Bendixen, Obama needs to win the Hispanic vote by a margin of more than 55 percent in Florida, and by more than 65 percent in New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. And if likely Republican nominee Sen. John McCain gives the Democrats a fight in New Jersey, California and Pennsylvania, Obama will need to do even better than that in these states.

Full article on Hispanics Rising II:  Josiah Ryan, of CNSnews, quotes Simon at length to explain the importance of Hispanic voters and writes about NDN's position that John McCain may lose the general election if he fails to have at least as much support as George W. Bush obtained in this demographic in 2000 and 2004.  Mr. Ryan cited the statistics gathered by NDN throughout the article.  Also discussed in the article, the notion that Barack Obama is unpopular with Hispanics; before making such conclusions, Simon Rosenberg pointed out, "Things play out very differently in primaries then they do in the general."

Andres, quoted by Edward Luce in the Financial Times:  This article comments on the strategic shift in the Obama campaign, which is becoming increasingly concerned with Spanish-speakers and Hispanics.  Andres Ramirez speaks on the challenges Sen. McCain faces: "Senator McCain is not nearly as strong in the south-west as you would expect him to be," said Andres Ramirez, who heads the Hispanic centre at the New Democratic Network, a liberal think-tank. "And Barack Obama is not as weak among Hispanics as some people believe. He has spent more on Spanish language ads than any candidate in history."

The Kansas City Infozine:  In this article, NDN explains the increase in Hispanic voter turnout and the shift towards the Democratic Party among Latinos.  Simon is quoted, explaining how candidates use new tools and technology to reach Spanish-speaking audiences, "The Democratic Party has woken up and gets it. This is why the Republicans should be very worried. I think John Kerry's campaign was a little bit slow. That is not the case in 2008, the Democrats clearly understand the Hispanics' relevance," said Simon Rosenberg, president and founder of NDN.  Additionally, Andres refutes the idea that Obama is struggling with Hispanics: Andres Ramirez, vice-president for Hispanic Programs for NDN, said that Clinton's "aggressive" and "innovative" campaign for the Hispanic community is a part of the energy behind the pro-Democratic Hispanic electorate.

Marshall News Messenger:  Cox News Service's Bob Deans reported on NDN's projections on Hispanic turnout for the 2008 elections.  The article references the statistics presented by NDN and quotes Simon as he reflects on the influence of the immigration debate on voting trends and elections in key swing states, "This is a community that is much more Democratic than it was in 2004 and is going to be voting in much greater numbers," Rosenberg told reporters..."It is a new day. Hispanics are poised to play a very major role in the 2008 elections....The immigration debate has fundamentally altered the desire for civic participation in the Hispanic community," said Rosenberg. "They are blaming the Republican Party for the anti-immigration sentiment, the anti-immigration rhetoric in America today."

Andres is also cited, as he explains the challenges that John McCain will face with the Hispanic/Latino electorate: "It's a dramatic reversal from the 2004 elections, when George W. Bush won a second term in the White House with 40 percent of the Hispanic vote," said Andres Ramirez, vice president for Hispanic programs with NDN.  "Right now the GOP is nowhere near that level,"said Ramirez. That's a problem for the presumptive Republican presidential candidate, Sen. John McCain, who hopes his Arizona background will help him with Hispanics.  "He needs to claw his way back up to 40 percent....I'm not sure he'll be able to do that," said Ramirez.

San Jose Mercury News: Frank Davie's article highlights the importance of key Western states with high Hispanic populations in determining the outcome of the presidential election and includes comments by the RNC's coordinator of Latino Outreach.  Additionally, it focuses on NDN's findings and employs quotes found in NDN's report regarding the importance of the Hispanic electorate:  Simon explains, "Those states are enormously consequential, and the large Hispanic vote there means McCain will face an uphill climb in keeping them."

San Francisco Chronicle:  Tyche Hencrick's piece explains the importance of the Hispanic vote in swing states, several of which have a surging Latino population and voter participation, as well as intensifying preference for Democrats.  Simon is cited throughout: "Hispanics happen to fall in these very consequential battleground states and may determine who the next president is," said Simon Rosenberg.  Simon added, "This is adding a whole new dynamic in this election that didn't exist in 2004 and may change this election."   Simon also discussed the shift that's taken place over the last few years, demonstrating Latinos are increasingly inclined to favor Democrats, "Starting in the fall of 2005, the Republican brand was severely degraded" in the eyes of Latinos, Rosenberg said, as a result of harsh rhetoric surrounding Wisconsin Republican Rep. James Sensenbrenner's immigration enforcement bill that would have made felons of illegal immigrants and people who help them.  According to Simon, "That caused a huge swing toward the Democrats," he said.  There was also, "...an enormous increase in voter registration, citizenship applications and all measures of civic participation. ... Spanish-language media is spending an enormous amount of time on voter participation in a way that was not done in 2004."

And along with Spanish-language voter outreach, NDN's report was covered in Spanish Language Media/Press:

1) Univision:  The article is a translation of the article from the San Jose Mercury News, quoted above.  Univision highlights the increase in voter registration and turnout, and calls the Latino shift toward the Democratic Party "bad news" for the Republican Party.  The article includes comments by the RNC's coordinator of Latino Outreach, and uses the statistics from NDN's report, as well as quotes from NDN's report, for example, by Matthew Dowd. 

2) La Opinion:  Pilar Marrero reports that the Hispanic vote grows and becomes increasingly Democratic. Simon is quoted as stating that the growth of the democratic vote in swing states could provide the Democrats with a victory in this Presidential election.  Pilar also explains that NDN attributes this change to a reversal of the treatment of Hispanics by the Republican Party from the elections of 2000 and 2004, with the immigration debate being perceived as increasingly anti-Latino.  Simon explains, "McCain will have to win over a community that is less friendly towards Republicans, and he abandoned the immigration reform proposal that he had proposed, which will make it more difficult for him to regain Latino votes."

3) El Financiero:  The article emphasizes NDN's position that the anti-immigrant debate has been increasingly perceived as anti-Hispanic, which might shift the Latino vote, and quotes Simon as he describes this more "energized" electorate.  Andres is also quoted as he addressed concerns of the alleged rift between Hispanics and African-Americans; "he pointed out that these differences have not manifested themselves in elections."  Andres also explains that the shift in the demographics of states like Florida, where most Latinos were Cubans who usually supported Republicans, has changed with the arrival of Puerto Ricans and South Americans in the same area.

4) EFE News/Wires (AOL):  Highlights NDN's report that almost 80% of all Latinos who voted in the 2008 primaries voted for a Democratic candidate. The article also includes comments from an RNC spokesperson, head of Latino Outreach.  Simon is quoted, pointing out that Republicans face a challenge in obtaining the popularity among Latinos enjoyed by George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.  Known for his keen ability to detect trends long before a tipping point occurs, the article shares Simon's insightful summation of NDN's report: "it is impossible to understand U.S. politics in the 21st century without taking the Hispanic community into account," as Hispanics have, "tripled their participation in primary elections from 2004." 

5) CNN Espanol:  This article mentions Barack Obama's discussion of Latin America policy and highlights Simon's comments regarding McCain's shift on the immigration debate, and how that could hurt him among Hispanics.

Additional references: 

Simon was quoted in a GOPachy, article entitled: "Political map could be redrawn on election day": "Democrats start with a core of 248 electoral votes," said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Democratic advocacy organization. Adding four Southwest states, including Arizona, would give Democrats the presidency with 277 Electoral College votes. Adding Florida and Ohio brings it to a knockout of 324, and adding New Hampshire and Iowa would deliver what he called an "enduring Democratic majority" of 335.  Pointing to polls that now show Obama leading McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia as well as nationally, Rosenberg said the election "is leaning very heavily Democratic right now. Obama has the ability to win a landslide victory both in the popular votes and the Electoral College based on early trend lines."

Blog hit on Robert Ranting:  "Polls now show Obama leading McCain in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia as well as nationally. The election is leaning very heavily Democratic right now. Obama has the ability to win a landslide victory both in the popular votes and the Electoral College based on early trend lines."  Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN

Project 1 Voice:  "With nearly eight in ten Hispanic voters backing Democrats over Republicans in presidential primaries this year, the Latino vote could swing several key battleground states come November," said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, formerly the New Democrat Network.  "This is a community that is much more Democratic than it was in 2004 and is going to be voting in much greater numbers," Rosenberg told reporters during the release of a report by the organization looking at the growing political heft of Hispanic voters. "It is a new day. Hispanics are poised to play a very major role in the 2008 elections."

MyDD  Direct Democracy:  On Obama campaigning in the West and South West:  "Obama clearly has work to do," said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a progressive think tank and advocacy group that has studied immigration and the Hispanic vote.  But Rosenberg and Democratic strategists say, despite the slow start, the Illinois senator will win over the constituency, if only because the issue environment favors him . Hispanic voters, like other demographic groups, feel the effects of the economic downturn and have turned against the war, they say.  The article also mentions that the Obama campaign is mapping out a strategy that will include exposure in the Spanish language media and heavy campaigning in Hispanic areas - elements that have been part of NDN's recommendations to political campaigns for some time.  NDN has emphasized the importance of having paid advertisements in Spanish language media, registering Hispanic voters, and sending well-known Latino leaders and surrogates out on the campaign trail.

Lastly, NDN's Hispanics Rising report was discussed during Andres Ramirez's presentation at the "State of Latinos" symposium in Denver, CO.  Andres's participation was publicized in: Hispanic Business, PR Newswire, and the Denver Post.

 

Simon and Kos talk politics

Thanks to our friends at FORA.tv, we now have video from last week's event in San Francisco with Daily Kos founder, Markos Moulitsas. Check it out below:

Not a terrorist fist jab

Not that I even know if one exists or what it looks like, but contrary to what Fox News may believe, what my friend Kyle called "dap" and what I refer to as "respect" or "pound" is not a terrorist fist jab. If that were the case, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison would be a guilty culprit, seen recently on CNN's Late Edition with Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

(Via Yeas & Nays)

Update: Reacting to E.D. Hill's comments, Media Matters wonders if Fox News thinks notables like Sen. Joe Lieberman and former President George H. W. Bush are terrorists.

"In Search of the Hispanic Vote"

In an article today in "La Opinion," Pilar Marrero comments on how both, Barack Obama and John McCain, recognize the importance of the Hispanic/Latino vote, and both will face challenges in courting Hispanic voters.

The general election campaign is taking off, and by all accounts, the success of either candidate will largely depend on the key swing states, formerly considered Republican strong holds, which are also largely Hispanic - states like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and Florida.

Alluding to Republican anti-immigrant campaigns and general unpopularity of the current administration, NDN's Simon Rosenberg was quoted by La Opinion, as he explained, "Obama has much work to do, he can't assume that the Latino vote will turnout for Democrats because they are upset with Republicans." Simon also pointed out that, "[Barack Obama] has one thing in his favor: on the important campaign issues, Obama is much more in line with Latinos in general than McCain."

It appears the candidates are taking different approaches with the Latino block. John McCain aired a Spanish-language radio and TV advertisement calling on Latinos to "look past party lines", arguing that he understands the economic uncertainty of our times. The intentional distance placed between himself and his party implies that he recognizes the damage done by the Republican anti-immigrant campaigns, largely perceived as anti-Hispanic, and the discontent with the Administration.

In the meantime, Barack Obama is appealing to Latinos on a more personal level, probably to address the challenge posed by complaints of some Hispanics feeling that they "don't know him," even speaking in Spanish throughout an entire ad aired in Puerto Rico.

What is truly amazing about this presidential campaign is that never in my life had I seen something like the video below - famous artists, artists that for years have been known in Mexico but until recently unknown in the United States, become interested and involved in U.S. politics. Artists like these are part of the estimated 48% of foreign born Hispanic voters, and, like any campaign surrogate, they could have an impact on Latino voters and abroad. These are people admired and looked up to by Hispanics throughout the continent, and in the U.S. they are recognized by both immigrants and native-born Latinos; and the kicker is that these are not even campaign videos! These videos are yet another example of the new tools being utilized by individuals all over the country. The first in the series of these videos was in English, the famous "Yes We Can" video (later adopted by the campaign) created by a musician, Will.i.am.; which was followed by another video "We Are the Ones" which featured a few more famous Hispanic comedians, actors and actresses, like Kate del Castillo, speaking in Spanish; and finally this video, all in Spanish, "Podemos con Obama." It looks like the trend of Hispanics Rising is catching on.

How awful they are

If you haven't seen it, here is a Fox News contributor confusing Obama and Osama, and joking about getting rid of them both.

So, my friends, what is the right response to this?

Remember, this is the network Clinton spokesman Lanny Davis recently called the most fair and balanced of all the TV news organizations.

The country is way past ready for a new and better politics.

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