Hispanic/Latino

Earlier this morning, NDN announced that we had purchased a substantial amount of advertising time on Spanish-language radio stations in Arizona, Colorado and Nevada.  The campaign in each of the three states focus on messages encouraging Latino-American to vote in the upcoming 2010 elections.

The campaigns in Colorado and Nevada are designed to increase awareness of the early voting option, which begins Saturday, October 16th, in Nevada and Monday, October 18th in Colorado.  The campaign in Arizona, which has already been on the air for several weeks, makes the case that the only way for Latinos to push back and eventually prevail against scapegoating politicians like Governor Jan Brewer and Sheriff Joe Arpaio is to participate in local civic life and to vote in elections.

Participation of Latino voters in American politics is on the rise.  In recent years the share of the Latino electorate has increased from 5% to 9% in national elections.  In Colorado the Latino share of the electorate has increased from 8% in 2004 to 13% in 2008.  In Nevada the share has increased from 10% in 2004 to 15% in 2008.  With investment this cycle Arizona could start to see the kind of increases neighboring states have seen in recent elections.

You can find the ads and scripts here. We are proud of these campaigns, and feel they will powerfuly supplement the hard work already being done by many groups on the ground.

NDN is still raising money for these aggressive campaigns, and hopes to expand its initial media buys in the coming days.  If you want to support this effort, please consider making a donation to NDN today. While it is still late in the election, these campaigns can use more money to increase our buys and reach - and all new money raised will go directly to putting more ads on the air.

For many years NDN has been a leading national advocate for Hispanic and Latino Americans.   These campaigns are the latest in a series of efforts to speak more directly to Spanish-speaking voters in the United States, and encourage their participation in American politics. I hope you will learn more about this effort and consider supporting it today. 

Thanks for all that you do.

In the last few days I've done a slew of interviews with reporters discussing the politics of SB1070 and the decision by the Department of Justice to declare the law unconstiutional.  The national GOP has gone into big time spin mode on this, declaring from the reporters I've spoken to the DOJ suit is political death for "Democrats in the West."   While that scenerio is possible of course, lets look at what we know about how this debate has played out in recent years. There two things we know for sure:

1) When Latinos are demonized by the GOP there is a backlash.  In California in the 1990s, and in national politics in this past decade, when Republican leaders launch a sustained anti-immigrant, anti-Latino Latinos respond, applying for citizenship in higher numbers, registering in higher numbers, voting in higher numbers, and voting aggressively against the Republican Party.  Given that Latinos now make up 15 percent of the national population, and large percentages of the voting population in major states - CA, FL, TX and key Presidential states - AZ, CO, NM, NV - a big shift in the Hispanic vote can dramatically alter the politics of a community, state and the nation. 

2) The Republicans have not shown that their anti-immigrant position works outside a Republican primary audience.   The polling on immigration has been consistent over the past five years.   About 15-20 percent of the country want the undocumenteds to leave and consider immigration a voting issue.  They are largely base Republican voters.  Hispanics too view immigration as a voting issue.  The rest of the country sees immigration as a second tier issue, trailing way behind more important issues like the bad economy, need for better health and foreign policy matters.  And for most of those who view it as an issue of secondary importance they are comfortable with the solution Congress has been proposing called comprehensive immigration reform (in this recent WaPo poll, for example, 57% support allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the US permanently while also giving majority support to SB1070).

So what this means in campaign terms is that a hard-line anti-immigrant stance can work well in a contested Republican primary - think Jan Brewer - but has not shown the capacity to motivate non-Hispanic general election voters in battleground races.  The Republican Party will have a hard time naming a single race the last several elections where a hard-line anti-immigrant candidate won purely on this issue, and virtually no GOP campaign has spent money on the issue in the last month of any race we've studied. In fact, I've argued before, that the emphasis the GOP has put on immigration has actually been a big negative with swing voters for it reinforces the worst attribute of the GOP of recent years - their willingness to put poliitics over problem solving.  For many their obsession with anti-immigrant politics looks feckless, partisan and helps reinforce their lack of seriousness as a party.  For while immigration matters, of course, it is just not as important as some of the more wild-eyed immigrant haters want to believe it is.  Most Americans are just way too smart for that.

Sometimes ithe anti-immigrant stance doesn't even work in a Republican primary audience.  In the 2008 Presidential election, the most liberal Republican on immigration, John McCain, won his party's nomination.  The anti-immigrant candidate, Tom Tancredo, never received more than 1% in any poll taken during the primary season.  And of course Senator McCain was then beaten by someone much more liberal than he on immigration reform, Barack Obama, who despite his pro-immigration reform stance received the largest vote share a Democratic Presidential candidate had received in 44 years. 

Unfortunately, Politico bought this GOP spin about how the GOP candidates will turn support of SB1070 into a winning regional issue and published this largely unsubstantiated and disapointing piece yesterday. Already, this morning we have a clear repudiation of the national GOP narrative in the largest state in the West, California, where Republican Gubernational candidate Meg Whitman has launched billboards in Spanish proclaiming her opposition to SB1070.  Newsweek has published this thoughtful essay making the case that the DOJ suit is smart politics for Obama. My gut is that this piece is closer to the truth than Politico's slightly hysterical initial take.

Whatever the politics of the DOJ suit are I think the government did the right thing.  Once SB1070 was passed, the federal government had to act.  If SB1070 succeeds we could end up with 50 different immigration policies in the US, not a single federal one.  The President was right last week to challenge Congress to quit kicking the can down the road on immigration reform and step up to build a better immigration system.  The Department of Justice was also right to challenge SB1070, a serious threat to the integrity of our federal immigration system. 

So what do we know about the politics of SB1070? Here is my take:

1) It will make it more likely that there is a large Latino vote against anti-immigrant candidates in the heavily Mexican-American West.

2) Outside of Arizona, I have serious doubts that a hard-line anti-immigrant stance will work for the GOP.  Most anti-immigrant voters in the West have already been motivated by many of the anti-Democratic messages of this cycle, and there just isnt a lot of data or experience to indicate that in this tough economy the GOP will be able to make the issue pop with non-Hispanic audiences beyond their base.  There is evidence and experience, however, which shows that if GOPers continue to talk about the issue deep into the fall it can actually hurt them, as it will help brand the GOPer as one those "more extreme" Republicans, a political brand which has been serially rejected by the American people over the past five years, and a positioning that today remains remarkably unpopular.

3) As the legal, economic and societal costs of SB1070 become better understood, it is very likely that the popularity of SB1070 - an extreme approach to a very real problem - will begin to drop.  From a policy standpoint SB1070 is a bad idea, and overtime I think most folks "in the West" will come to agree. 

4) The way the issue plays in each race in the West will, as Meg Whitman has shown, be determined by how each candidate plays it.   Democrats would be smart to hold firm on demanding a comprehensive national solution and not give into the early politics of this new post SB1070 environment.

That's it for now.  Thoughts welcome of course.  For more on these matters check out my first cut reaction to the DOJ suit and this backgrounder on NDN's work on immigration reform.

Matt Bai has a very good piece in today's NYTimes on Jeb Bush.  Despite the obvious problems with a third Bush running for President, the Democrats should be taking a potential Bush candidacy seriously in 2012. 

Thrree quick observations:

1) He is the strongest potential Republican candidate on the scene today, and could win the GOP nomination.

2) He can win Hispanic votes, and change the electoral map.  Unlike his brother, Jeb is fluent in Spanish, and married to a Mexican immigrant.  If the midwest is weaker for Obama in 2012 due to the economy, VA/NC more difficult, Obama's firewall becomes the heavily Latino Southwest and Florida.   Right now Jeb, who has opposed SB1070, is the only GOPer who could likely break through that Latin firewall and flip the electoral college. 

Bush is from Florida, the GOP's convention is there in 2012, and if he puts a newly electred CA governor Meg Whitman on the ticket, could even put CA into play, forcing the Democrats to spend tens of millions of dollars just to defend.  His strength in Florida alone changes the electoral calculations for 2012, potentially taking the biggest swing state in the Presidential election off the table.

The Bush family has shown great facility at appealing to Hispanic voters in past elections.  Jeb's potential strength in the emerging Latin electoral belt in the Southern and Western US makes him a very formidible candidate.    

3) He is motivated.  The Bush family needs some new and better chapters in their book of national service.  The last few chapters have not been so good. 

My own gut is that if Obama looks vulnerable early next year Jeb will jump in and go for it.  And if he does 2012 is going to be a serious and highly contested campaign.

Yesterday, our affiliate New Policy Institute released a report by Andres Ramirez and Kristian Ramos on the rapid increase of the Hispanic population, fueled by recent waves of immigration to the United States.  You can find the Executive Summary here and the full report here.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me at ssanchez@ndn.org.

Hispanics Rising 2010 Executive Summary

Hispanics Rising 2010 Full Report

Thanks!

Yesterday Simon Rosenberg announced the launch of The 21st Century America Project, featuring NDN’s demographic and public opinion research.  Many of NDN’s senior staff are involved in this new project, including Alicia Menendez, our new Senior Advisor, Morley Winograd and Mike Hais, NDN/NPI Fellows, and Andres Ramirez, NDN’s Senior Vice President.

On Tuesday, April 27th, NDN will release Hispanics Rising 2010: An Overview of the Growing Power of America's Hispanic Community, a The 21st Century America report by Andres Ramirez and Kristian Ramos, that examines the most current trends characterizing America's growing Hispanic community.

The rapid increase in the Hispanic population in the U.S. is one of the most tangible demographic trends of the 21st century. Huge waves of immigration from throughout the Americas contributed to this exponential growth, and will have lasting effects on the complexion of the United States. At 15% of the U.S. population today, Hispanics are now America’s largest “minority” group, and are projected to be 29% of all those living in the United States by 2050. The combination of the 2010 Census and the upcoming mid-term elections provides meaningful context for examining the growing influence and power of the Hispanic community.

Hispanics Rising 2010
Tuesday, April 27th
Time has been changed to 12:00 PM.  Webcast will begin at 1215pm. 
NDN Event Space First Floor 729 15th Street, NW Washington, DC

Click here for more information on NDN's Hispanic Programs.

For years the team at NDN/NPI has been a leader in helping policymakers better understand the changing demographics of the United States. Today, we take that commitment one step further.

I am excited to announce that we are bringing our demographic and public opinion research together under a single banner: the 21st Century America Project. The project will feature work by NDN Senior Vice President, Andres Ramirez, the primary author of much of our recent research in the Hispanic community; Morley Winograd and Mike Hais, NDN/NPI Fellows, authors of the critically acclaimed book Millenial Makeover; Alicia Menendez, our new Senior Advisor, who has extensive experience working in these emergent communities; and other NDN/NPI Fellows and collaborators.

NDN is proud to continue our tradition of offering our members, the general public and policymakers prescient demographic and electoral analysis. In years past we were among the first to discuss the growing power of the domestic US Hispanic community, among the first to discuss how our very concept of race is changing as America hurtles towards becoming a majority-minority nation; and among the first to welcome the end of the “Southern Strategy of American politics” and the emergence of a new national electoral map.

In 2006, we funded research on the rising potential of the largest generation in American history, the Millennials. The results from that research were in the words of our Millennial experts, Mike Hais and Morley Winograd, “so eye-popping” that they were inspired to write a book on the matter. Two years later, that book, Millennial Makeover, went on to become a New York Times Favorite Book of 2008. Since then we have been tracking and studying this emerging constituency.

To take a look at some of our past 21st Century America Project highlights, please visit our website and continue to look for this new project in the months ahead. Thanks to all of you who made this exciting part of our work here at NDN/NPI possible.

On Tuesday, we had the privilege of having White House Director of Urban Affairs Adolfo Carrión join us at NDN for a speech on the 2010 Census, housing and education. I was personally struck by how enthusiastic Director Carrión got when he started talking about urban policy. Be sure to check it out:

Tomorrow, Thursday March 4th at 12 noon, we're going to be having a great event here at NDN,  a special presentation on a new poll regarding the changing political coalitions of the 21st Century.  I encourage partisans and political idealogues of all stripes, as well as those interested in changing demographics to join us.You can rsvp to jsingleton@ndn.org or by following this link.

Part of what is so great about this presentation is that it takes a look at very important segments of the electorate (Millennials, Unmarried Women, African-Americans and Latinos) and really emphasizes how their power exists in their emergence as a coalition - and how that coalition is growing. 

I know that this is going to be an exciting kickoff for our 21st Century America project.

In a new Newsweek piece on immigration Reform, Arian Campo-Flores writes: 

Given that much of last year was squandered on a health-care debate that has yet to produce an agreement, and given that Americans are clamoring for the administration to focus on jobs and the economy, immigration has fallen far down the priority list, for both the president and Congress. "I don't think there's been a diminution in the desire to do it," says Simon Rosenberg of NDN, which has also pressed for an overhaul. "But there's a greater recognition that the pipeline got backed up in 2009." The top two priorities now, he says, are a jobs bill and financial-services reform. "If those get done, and Washington is working better, then I think other things will be possible this year." Even, perhaps, immigration reform, though he says it may well get pushed to 2011.

As the New York Times reports this morning, there is a new legislative pipeline now.  If the White House and Congress can pass jobs and financial services reform bills quickly, then the basket of other issues waiting for consideration - immigration reform, energy/price on carbon, education reform, transportation, a DOHA treaty, even health care now - will get put into play.  A lot now depends on what happens with these two bills now, and for those wanting progress in these other areas a good plan would be to help get these other two bills passed, quickly. 

The President might consider bringing the Senate and House leadership in for an extended set of discussions next week on how best to get the differing approaches to these bills reconciled as soon as possible, and not leave it to the whims of the Committee process alone to help determine their fate.  That is perhaps the greatest lesson from 2009 - more centralized and cooperative management by the governing party is required for the President to get done all that he wants done in the coming years.

For those wanting to reform our badly broken immigration system do not lose heart.  The President and much of Congress want to get it done, and a lot of prep work has been done in 2009 to prepare for the fight when it comes.  For an issue like this timing is going to be key.   The White House and the Senate and House will have to work closely together, in a very coordinated way, to keep the immigration reform debate from spiraling out of control.   Decks will have to be clear, leaders aligned, confidence high.  I'm not sure we are there right now, but I also think that day is not all that far down the road.  We will need to keep the pressure on, keep making our case to more people, show both determination and patience, and as the President has said, never quit.

I am excited to announce a wonderful new addition to the NDN/NPI family - Alicia Menendez.   Alicia is a good friend, a thoughtful television commentator, and has spent years working on issues and strategies complementary to our work at NDN.  She will be coming on board to help advise me and the NDN team on a wide range of strategic issues, represent us in the media and in public and private gatherings, and continue her advocacy for and study of the Millennial generation and Hispanics.   She will be joining us full time later this month. 

I've known Alicia for many years now and am very excited to have her join our team.  Look for her on the blog, on TV, facebook, twitter and all the ways we all connect these days - soon.

More About Alicia and the Position

Alicia Menendez is a Senior Advisor to NDN and its sister organization, the New Policy Institute.  As Senior Advisor, Ms. Menendez will help guide the direction of the two organizations, represent the organization in the national media and at public and private gatherings, and work on NDN/NPI's projects on the rapidly changing  American electorate. 

Ms. Menendez comes to NDN/NPI as a well-established television commentator and experienced organizer in important emerging communities.  You can find her talking about national politics just about every week on the cable news networks, Fox and MSNBC. She is a veteran of both Rock the Vote and Democracia USA, successful organizations dedicated to increasing the participation of Millennials and Hispanics in the electoral process.  

She also spent time as a television segment producer and on-air contributor for RNN TV in New York, and was a primary surrogate on her father's successful 2006 bid for the US Senate in New Jersey.

Alicia graduated from Harvard in 2005, and had the honor to deliver the undergraduate commencement speech at her graduation ceremony that year.