election

Sarah Palin has made a huge splash since being introduced to the national political scene, a splash like a polar bear doing a Triple Lindy into Glacier Bay. Several national polls released since her announcement have shown her true impact on the race.

According to Daily Kos/Research 2000 tracking, Governor Palin has had a rough week in light of her interview on ABC and criticism of her and U.S. Sen. John McCain's negative attacks on U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  Her favorability fell 5 points over the course of last week, Her unfaves increased by 8.  

Today, Rassmussen released a poll testing a hypothetical presidential match up between Palin and U.S. Sen. Joe Biden (perhaps next they can poll a reunion of David Lee Roth and Van Halen). Palin leads Biden 47% to 44%, with both candidates having about 50% favorable ratings, Palin, however, garners 35% very favorable ratings to Biden's 23%.  In the very unfavorable category, Governor Palin also leads with 28% of respondents to Senator Biden's 20%, (but this is like a golf score, lowest wins). Very interestingly, Biden outpaces Palin in a key constituent group, women, 55% to 44% according to the Rassmussen survey.

An EMILY's list poll also found that Governor Palin struggled among those sharing a common second x chromosome as the Alaska Governor. It is hard to believe that a pro-life, anti-moose Pentecostal would only be appealing to 41% of women.  Joe Biden, on the other hand, is supported by 64% of women. Additionally, the EMILY's list poll finds that only 9% of U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton supporters are more likely to support John McCain because of Palin's selection. U.S. Sen. Barack Obama extended his lead among Clinton Supporters by 10 points after Palin's inclusion and opened up a 54-point lead on McCain. 59% of women felt that Palin's selection was politically motivated, 20% of women thought Governor Palin was picked because of her qualifications, the same percent that have excessive mercury in their body.

The race has leveled, the bounces are over. Now it is up to the candidates to make their case and the voters to decide.

The national polls have shown a tightening of the Presidential race in the last couple weeks with U.S. Sen. John McCain pulling even or ahead of U.S. Sen. Barack Obama.  However, if the last several elections have taught us anything, the outcome will be decided in the battleground states, not in national media polls.

Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Minnesota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have always been historically swing states; This year polls are suggesting that Virginia and to a lesser extent Georgia and North Carolina might also be competitive.

Over the next 6 weeks we will look at these races as the candidates, after two years and millions of dollars come towards the finish line neck and neck, with Obama leading 168 to 159 in the race to 270 electoral votes.

Today, polls in 6 states show the race tight but among those that Obama is leading, he increases his electoral vote lead from 9 to 31.

COLORADO (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 49%, McCain - 46%, Barr - 2%, Nader - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

FLORIDA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 48%, McCain - 48%, Nader - 2%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

MICHIGAN (PPP-D): Obama - 47%, McCain - 46%.

OHIO (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 51%, Obama - 44%, Nader - 1%, Barr - 0%, McKinney - 0%.

PENNSYLVANIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%.

VIRGINIA (SurveyUSA): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Others - 2%.

VIRGINIA (Fox News/Rasmussen): McCain - 49%, Obama - 47%, Barr - 1%, Nader - 1%, McKinney - 0%.

WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 4%.

After these numbers are figured in, Senator Obama extends his lead to 215 to 184.

In recent days polls have come out in Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, and North Dakota showing Senator Obama leading in those states and Senator McCain leading in Indiana; When factored in this brings the electoral equation to Obama 245 - McCain 189.

To armchair this yourself the Washington Post has a great calculator.  My map says Obama 308 - McCain 230. 

*John McCain seems to have locked up Alaska's three electoral votes with the selection of Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Early August polling showed McCain 44% - Obama 39% with Lillehammer hero and native son Tommy Moe garnering 11% and singer songwriter Jewel trailing the field with 6%.  Today, Moe and Jewel are under the margin of error and McCain has opened up an 11 point lead. 

For years, NDN has been a leader on Hispanic issues, including comprehensive immigration reform and analysis of Latino demographic and voting trends. In the last few months, NDN has set out to make the argument that Hispanic and immigrant voters have become a critical voting bloc in the United States and will play a pivotal role this fall and in all future elections. Our arguments went public in a big way in late May as we released Hispanics Rising II, an in-depth, updated look at Hispanic demographic and voting trends and the critical role that the Hispanic community is playing in U.S. politics. Below are some of the articles relevant to our argument as well as Andres's presentation at NCLR's Conference in San Diego last week:

Latino turnout could hold key to White House - San Francisco Chronicle, by Tyche Hendricks, May 21, 2008

Obama closes in on Democratic nomination - Xinhua General News Service, by Yang Qingchuan, May 21, 2008.

Obama looks west in electoral map play - Politico, by Carrie Budoff Brown, May 27, 2008

Favorece voto latino a demócratas por tema de inmigración en EU - El Financiero, May 28, 2008

Obama woos key states with accent on Spanish - Financial Times, By Andrew Ward in Reno, Nevada, and Edward Luce in Washington, May 29, 2008

Group predicts record Hispanic turnout in next presidential election - Mashall News Messenger, by Bob Deans, May 29, 2008

Democratic Group Says Hispanic Voters Run to Democratic Party - Kansas City Infozine, by Christian A. Cheairs, May 29, 2008

Election 2008: Latino vote could be pivotal in Western states - San Jose Mercury News, By Frank Davies, May 29, 2008

El voto latino aumenta y se vuelve más demócrata - La Opinion, Pilar Marrero, May 29, 2008

Obama va por el voto hispano - CNN Espanol, May 29, 2008

Obama's E Pluribus Challenge - Rolling Stone, June 04, 2008

Obama leads in battle for Latino vote - Los Angeles Times, by Reed Johnson, June 06, 2008

Obama en busca del voto latino - La Opinion, by Pilar Marrero, June 06, 2008

Hispanics will be Obama's big challenge - Miami Herald, by Andres Oppenheimer, June 08, 2008

Spanish-language media key to victory with Latinos - Politico, by Gebe Martinez, June 10, 2008

El voto latino será crucial en 2008 - Univision, June 13, 2008

Shift on immigration could cost McCain - St. Petersburg Times, by Alex Leary and Wes Allison, June 21, 2008

The swing states of 2008 - Salon.com, by Thomas F. Schaller, June 24, 2008

Obama, McCain make strong bid for Latino votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, June 26, 2008

McCain, Obama battle for Hispanic votes - The Hill, by Roxana Tiron, June 28, 2008

Swinging for Latinos - New Mexico Independent, by Marjorie Childress, July 1, 2008

Hispanic voters gaining strength in key states - Associated Press, by Stephen Ohlemacher, July 2, 2008

McCain revs efforts to woo Hispanic voters - The Arizona Republic, by Dan Nowicki, July 10, 2008

POLITICS: Latinos expected to play key role in presidential election - North County Times, CA, by Edward Sifuentes, Saturday, July 12, 2008

Obama prepara un "llamado a las trincheras" durante un foro hispano - EFE News Service, Andres's interview with Maria Pena, July 13, 2008.

NPR: 'Bush Hispanics' Say Goodbye To GOP, by Jennifer Ludden, July 13, 2008

McCain woos Latinos, touts immigration votes - San Francisco Chronicle, by Carla Marinucci, July 15, 2008

Planned Parenthood Action Fund officially endorsed U.S. Senator Barack Obama yesterday. This is only the second time in history that Planned Parenthood Action Fund has endorsed a presidential candidate. See below the endorsement statement by president Cecile Richards and accompanying clips of Senator Obama.

Mary Curtis of the Washington Post talks to feminist about how Michelle Obama isn't the first strong woman to cause problems on a campaign.

Clark Hoyt of the New York Times discussed the Times' supposed sexist reporting of U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton's campaign.

Rebecca Traister at Salon.com on why Clinton supporters still won't supporter U.S. Senator Barack Obama

The Gallup poll reports that Senator Barack Obama has made gains in women voters after Senator Hillary Clinton left the race, indicating that Senator John McCain's opposition to equal pay for women, support for overturning Roe v. Wade, opposition to legisation expanding access to emergency contractopion and support for limiting access to all forms of birth control is not making him popular with women voters.

Media Matters reported on Maureen Dowd's repeated uses of gender roles to mock Democrats.

Similarly, Susan Faludi points out in the New York Times how Republicans are attempting to paint Senator Barack Obama as feminine because he doesn't play into a typical gender role.

Senator Barack Obama had to apologize to female reporter Peggy Agar for calling her "sweetie" while campaigning in Detroit. Obama stated ""Second apology is for using the word 'sweetie.' That's a bad habit of mine. I do it sometimes with all kinds of people. I mean no disrespect and so I am duly chastened on that front." Coming from Detroit myself, I'm sure the comment didn't turn many heads or loose him any votes in the Chrysler LLC plant where he made it, and certainly it isn't the most offensive or sexist thing he could have said, but sexist it is. To be fair, Obama is excellent on women's issues and just last week was endorsed by NARAL Pro-Choice America. The fact of the matter remains that whether he meant any disrespect or not, had Peggy Agar been named Steve or John, Barack Obama would never have called her "sweetie" and that is sexism.