As we move toward the conclusion of the first in the nation New Hampshire primary, let's look at the Money Race and what that bodes for the two parties as they select a nominee and turn toward the general election in the weeks to come...
Last week, Leslie Wayne of the New York Times Politics Blog, reported that:
"...in the first three quarters of 2007, the top three Democratic presidential candidates raised $200 million and had $98 million left, while the top four Republican candidates raised $154 million and had $35 million left. And every month this year, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised more than the National Republican Senatorial Committee —$49.3 million raised for Democratic Senate efforts as of Nov. 30 (with $23.4 million on hand), compared with $28.7 million for Republican Senate campaigns ($10.4 million on hand). The Republicans are also at a disadvantage on the House side, with $60.8 million raised by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ($30.7 million cash left) compared with $43.4 million for its Republican counterpart ($2.3 million on hand.)"
This establishes a clear advantage for the Democrats in the Money Race (where historically the Republicans outperform, see below). Taking numbers from the Center for Responsive Politics website which tabulated the various reports demonstrates how unusual 2008 is for the Democrats to be winning the Money Race this cycle (advantages in each catergory are bold, and note these are totals raised, see above for current cash-on-hand advantages):
2008 Cumulative Party Fundraising
Democratic Party $211,980,470
Republican Party $201,671,358
Committee Breakdowns…
DNC - $50,483,604
RNC - $76,918,299
DCCC - $60,757,995
NRCC - $43,413,770
DSCC - $49,290,719
NRSC - $28,717,952
2006 Cumulative Party Fundraising
Democratic Party $599,670,996
Republican Party $707,164,475
Committee Breakdowns…
DNC - $130,821,232
RNC - $243,007,131
DCCC - $139,911,833
NRCC - $179,544,131
DSCC - $121,376,959
NRSC - $88,812,386
2004 Cumulative Party Fundraising
Democratic Party $730,935,853
Republican Party $892,792,542
Committee Breakdowns…
DNC - $311,524,471
RNC - $392,413,393
DCCC - $92,945,101
NRCC - $185,719,489
DSCC - $88,657,573
NRSC - $78,980,487
2000 Cumulative Party Fundraising
Democratic Party $520,433,199
Republican Party $715,701,784
Committee Breakdowns…
DNC - $260,560,928
RNC - $379,006,604
DCCC - $105,096,499
NRCC - $144,610,249
DSCC - $104,206,648
NRSC - $96,127,865
Thus, looking at these historical numbers (the 2006 mid-terms, and the 2004 and 2000 Presidential election cycles), you see the repeated advantage that Republicans usually have in the Money Race, and this contrasts starkly with Democrats' recent fundraising prowess in 2008. Taken in light of the many polls and other data indicating more enthusiasm for the Democrats and a weakening of the Republican brand, which we've been writing and talking about for months, it is hard for me to see a pathway, at least in terms of the Money Race, for the Republicans to regain their financial advantage and retain control of the White House and make any gains in Congress in November 2008.
The Democrats clearly have the money advantage in 2008. If they work to craft a 21st century governing agenda and convey it to the voters, the electoral advantage should be theirs, as well.
