Race Relations

Let me begin by saying that I have a great deal of respect for Joe Scarborough as one of the few more sensible, moderate Republican voices out there nowadays.  However, Scarborough and Ed Gillespie's appearance on Meet the Press yesterday demonstrated that the Republican party is either unable or unwilling to step back and take an honest look at the main reason behind its current unpopularity.  Republicans are unwilling to accept that it is precisely their conservatism - their social conservatism - that has caused their demise.  There is no "big tent" any longer when it comes to the GOP.

MR. GREGORY:  But, Joe, it seems like the fundamental question is, what does the party want to be, right?......Ron Brown, seen in his column this week in the National Journal, talks about the party being more monochromatic, more conservative regionally and in terms of the voters.  And he talked to Tom Davis of Virginia who said this, "…Tom Davis of Virginia, who chaired the Republican--the National Republican Congressional Committee, calls Specter's defection a `devastating blow' that will send a `bad signal' of ideological intolerance to the moderate white-collar suburbanites the party must recapture if it is to threaten the Democrats' congressional and Electoral College majorities.  `The dilemma for Republicans is, are we--what are we going to become, a coalition or are we going to be a private club?'"
MR. JOE SCARBOROUGH:  ….So there's always a back and forth.  But the bigger question is, what does the Republican Party need to be? We keep hearing that it's too conservative.  You know, it depends on how you define conservative.
MR. GREGORY:  Right.
MR. SCARBOROUGH:  Over the past decade we've spent too much money, we've spread our armies across the globe, we've, we've changed rules on Wall Street that allows, you know, that allowed bankers to leverage 40-to-1.  That's not conservative, that's radical.  And we have to understand that and be truly conservative.

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MR. GREGORY:  [On the Economy] You say independents are with Republicans on this.  Obama advisers say just the opposite, that he's in the high 60s in terms of approval among independents, much more trust for Obama than for Republicans on the economy.  And, and this from the ABC/Washington Post poll:  Who do you trust to do a better job handling the economy?  It's Obama 61 percent, Republicans in Congress 24 percent.
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MR. GREGORY:  "The Last Best Hope:  Restoring Conservatism and America's Promise." And then look at the headline from The New York Times this week: "GOP Debate:  A Broader Party or a Purer One?" Both of you address this question.  Should it be broader?  Should it be purer?
MR. SCARBOROUGH:  That's a false choice, though.  Ronald Reagan was about as conservative as you can be.  Ronald Reagan said, you know, the government that governs the least governs best.  Thirty years ago you had Margaret Thatcher, 30 years ago this month, coming into power.  Again, Thatcher, a hard-core conservative on economic issues, especially.  We need to be conservative, but like Reagan.

But it was not President Reagan's fiscal policies that earned him two elections and popularity - it was his character.  Mr. Scarborough and most Republicans fail to understand the moment in history that we are living.  Republican, Democrat, Independent voters - who might disagree on fiscal policy, tax policy, etc. - all supported President Obama because he changed the tone of the debate.  They supported him because of what he stands for: empathy, conciliation, unity, progress.   As stated by Simon - the key to unlocking America's 21st century electorate is to understand and embrace how the concept of race is changing in America.  Fear-mongering, highly secterian, anti-gay, anti-choice, anti-Hispanic rhetoric and actions - in the name of "conservatism" - is the reason for the GOP's minority status.  Case in point (also played during Meet the Press):

As demonstrated by the recent polling conducted by ABC/Washington Post and the New York Times, American voters reject these "conservative" values.  Passing comprehensive immigration reform is one way for Democrats to consolidate their majority status by demonstrating to voters that they are problem solvers, and it is also a way for Republicans to begin the long road back to mainstream America.

Meet the Press ended with very fitting footage from an interview with Jack Kemp, who passed away this weekend:

(Videotape, February 9, 1997)
Representative JACK KEMP:  It's the single most important issue facing America at the turn of the century and the new millennium:  racial reconciliation, civility.  An America where you can have a dialogue over affirmative action, for instance, without being accused of being a, a racist on either way, or on either side of that issue.  These are important issues that have to be addressed, and I would like to see an America in which black and white actually listen to each other.  And it can't be solved with rhetoric, it has to be solved with sound, positive, progressive, inclusive policies.  And I want to see the Republican Party lead that debate, because we are the party of Lincoln.  And we must be an inclusionary party that says that by the year 2000, as I tried to say at Harlem one day during the campaign, I'd like to see an America where half of all black Americans are voting Democrat, but the other half are voting Republican.

 

Las Vegas, NV - Throughout the Primary elections, several political pundits and news media reported on what they considered was a problem for US Senator Barack Obama. The common perception was that since US Senator Hillary Clinton was outperforming Senator Obama among Hispanic voters by more than 2:1, then this must be a problem for Senator Obama. In addition, they generated much commentary around the assumption that there must be racial tensions among Hispanic and African American voters because Senator Obama was not performing as well as Senator Clinton among this crucial voting group.

That was the Primary though, and now we have moved on to the General election. Every major poll that been released shows Senator Obama leading US Senator John McCain by at least a 2:1 ratio including the most recent NY Times/CBS poll that shows Senator Obama leading Senator McCain, 62% to 23%. The question is, when we will see the headline, "Senator McCain has a Latino Problem." In addition, when will we see the news media begin reporting the on the willingness of Hispanic voters to support and African American candidate.  If the standard for making the case in the Primary was a 2:1 lead, then shouldn't that same standard be considered now.  It is also a real problem for me to know that news media was willing to sensationalize an alleged conflict between Hispanic and African American voters, but lack the appetite to report on the harmony that is now apparent. In fact most reporting on race relations now centers on a potential divide between African American and White voters.  The discussion on race relations seems to ignore Hispanics.

I don't know when the news media will begin to accept this reality, but I know that at least Senator McCain understands the gravity of the situation. Senator McCain has been engaging in a full court press to woo Latino voters. He has hired one of the best Hispanic advertising gurus in the business, Lionel Sosa, who guided President Bush to record levels of support among Hispanic voters for a Republican presidential candidate, he is making the rounds at every major conference of the leading national Hispanic organizations, he has launched an aggressive media campaign targeted at Hispanic voters, and is pretty much willing to do whatever it takes to reach out to Hispanic voters. For a Senator who was supposed to have an easy task at courting Hispanic voters, these actions look more like signs of desperation than confidence. At this point, Senator McCain is polling anywhere from 17%-21% lower than President Bush's 2004 levels depending on which polls you reference.

During the 2008 NCLR Annual Conference these past four days, several operatives of Senator McCain's campaign have acknowledged that they are aware of Senator McCain's Latino problem. They state that Senator McCain is suffering from a damaged Republican brand among Hispanic voters due to the GOP's anti-immigrant and anti-Hispanic rhetoric over the last couple of years. I think that they are correct that this is a major reason why Senator McCain has a Latino problem, but one of the other important reasons Senator McCain is struggling among Hispanic voters is "trust." Senator McCain tried to address this issue during the NCLR conference by stating that he hopes his past actions have earned the "trust" of Hispanic voters. However, the Senator McCain that we know today is not the same as the Senator McCain we knew of before, and Senator McCain we just don't know if we can trust you anymore. The NY Times/CBS Poll states that 59% of Hispanics think Senator McCain does not believe his own rhetoric.   This above all else is why Senator McCain has a Latino problem.

UPDATE***

Shortly after posting this, I recieved polling information from Gallup on the issue of race relations between Hispanics and African Americans.  I think that the information is very important so, I am posting there findings here.

The generally positive review of black-Hispanic relations in Gallup polling among members of the two leading U.S. minority groups contrasts with considerable media speculation about the impact of Hispanic animosity toward blacks in this year's primary elections.

Some of that commentary has speculated that the trend is getting worse as the Hispanic population grows and starts to outnumber blacks in some neighborhoods and entire cities. Others posit that older Hispanics are more likely than the younger generation to harbor biases and resentments against blacks.

In a January 2008 New York Times article titled, "In Obama's Pursuit of Latinos, Race Plays Role," the authors write, "Mr. Obama confronts a history of often uneasy and competitive relations between blacks and Hispanics, particularly as they have jockeyed for influence in cities like Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York. 'Many Latinos are not ready for a person of color,' Natasha Carrillo, 20, of East Los Angeles, said. 'I don't think many Latinos will vote for Obama. There's always been tension in the black and Latino communities. There's still that strong ethnic division. I helped organize citizenship drives, and those who I've talked to support Clinton.'"

While black-Hispanic animosity may exist and could even have been a factor in some state caucuses or primaries, the Gallup data indicates it is not overwhelmingly obvious to members of either group. Whites are much more likely to believe the two are in conflict.