I'm not referring to tomorrow's final contest - although we can safely estimatethat this could be a landslide win for Obama. What I'm referring to is that regardless of the outcome of the election, Barack Obama has caused a major shift in the electoral map, and the shift means a fundamental change in the politics of this country.
Barack Obama has changed the culture of politics. He's changed the culture of politics because he's formed an entirely new "base" of supporters (millenials, Hispanics, and many independents), he's recruited record numbers of organizers and an unprecedented grass-roots structure, and he's been able to get people to participate in the democratic process at record levels, as evidenced by the results of early voting this year. We're seeing an electoral map that could change politics for 20-30 years, with Iowa going for a Democrat, and former Republican strongholds like Colorado, New Mexico, Virginia, and Florida flipping, or at least becoming battleground states.
Barack's new political movement raised about $600 million total, and drew from 3.2 million individual donors - a record level. This campaign has transformed thousands of communities-and revolutionized the way organizing itself will be understood and practiced for at least the next generation. Regardless who governs, Obama has created an organization at the community level that, instead of being based on X leadership roles to fill, it has created leadership roles for as many leaders as there are. Thus creating a solid, durable, series of existing networks. And these networks will remain, so that they can become mobilized once again, for any cause. A note on college organizers put it best:
So we have people in charge of whatever they ARE. We are saying, ‘What's your social network?' We say, ‘OK, you're The Balcony Coordinator-your job is to go party at Balcony [a local bar] every weekend-like you do anyways-but now wear a Barack Obama button-and bring voter reg forms.
Millenials and the largest minority - Hispanics - comprise a large portion of this new coalition. To me, that means that Latinos and Latinas are not only participating civically, but they are now volunteeringand organizing for a campaign in record numbers.
This is owed in part to the important push on the part of the Obama campaign to encourage early voting. Barack Obama has invested far more heavily in turning out early votes than past Democratic nominees and that effort has provided results. Nationally, Barack Obama is ahead 59%-40% among early voters. Analysts say that 1 in 3 of all voters have voted early, up from 22.5 percent in 2004 and just 7 percent in 1992.
Democrats and Republicans voted in roughly equal numbers. That, however, represents a departure from 2004, when many more Republicans than Democrats cast ballots before election day. Republicans won the battle for absentee votes, but Democrats won among those voting in person.
Florida is a striking example of this. Republicans were voting at a heavier pace in the absentee ballots, but the number of in-person votes cast exceeded the number of absentees. 38% of all Florida voters have cast ballots - 4.2-million votes - and 331,274 more Democrats voted early than Republicans. Another 710,066 independents have voted.
In Colorado, the number of early votes cast equals slightly more than half of the total number of votes cast -- early and on Election Day - in 2004.
In Nevada, Democrats have cast 225,670 of the 438,129 ballots (51.5%) in the two most populous counties, Las Vegas's Clark County and Reno's Washoe. Republicans cast 31.3% with the remainder cast by Independents. Those two counties account for about 90% of the state's turnout. Early voting is expected to make up 60% of the Silver State's 2008 ballots. Andres was quoted in the Wall Street Journal, pointing out:
John McCainwill need to nab between 75% to 80% of the Independent vote, a tall order given that Nevada polling shows nothing like that level of support. He also would need about 12% to 15% of the Democratic vote, perhaps an easier prospect.
In North Carolina, 2,573,206, or about 41% of the state's 6,232,230 registered voters have voted early, and the vote breaks down as a little over 51% Democrats and about 30% Republicans. The rest were unaffiliated or libertarian.
In Georgia, more than one million people have voted, a big jump from the less than 500,000 people who voted early four years ago.
Early voting actually makes it harder for attempts to disenfranchise voters to stop eligible voters from casting ballots. Dirty tricks are also harder to pull off. If political operatives want to jam get-out-the-vote telephone lines, as they did on Election Day in New Hampshire in 2002, it would be harder to do if people voted over two weeks. Early voting also reduces the burden on election systems that are often stretched near to the breaking point. In 2004, voters waited in lines as long as 10 hours. And there is every indication that lines on Tuesday, in some places and at some times, will again be extraordinarily long. The more people who vote early, the fewer who will be lined up at the polls on Election Day.
With evident success of early-voting, the states that have not adopted it - including New York - should do so. Congress should also mandate early voting for federal elections - ideally as part of a larger federal bill that would fix the wide array of problems with the electoral system. Today, the idea that all voting must occur in a 15-hour window, or less, on a single day is as outdated as the punch-card voting machine.
Continuing its efforts to ensure that Hispanic citizens have the information they need to vote, NDN has scheduled a Las Vegas news conference tomorrow, Thursday, October 30, with U.S. Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and a group of Hispanic political and community leaders -- Republicans, Democrats and unaffiliated individuals -- to denounce deceptive practices targeted toward Hispanic citizens in an effort to prevent them from voting.
According to news reports, some Hispanic households have received robo-calls asking for personal information and who they planned to vote for. According to the same news reports, if the voters answered, "Obama," they were "informed" that they could vote over the phone. Voting via phone is not allowed.
Reid, NDN and others also will urge Hispanic citizens to make their voices heard by voting, and let voters know that they can vote early as allowed by Nevada law or on November 4.
The news conference is scheduled for 1 p.m. PT tomorrow in Las Vegas at the Latin Chamber of Commerce Building, 300 N. 13th St. NDN and Reid are expected to be joined by several Hispanic leaders, including State Assemblyman Ruben Kihuen, State Assemblyman Moises Denis, Luis Valera, Chairman of the Latin Chamber of Commerce Government Affairs Committee, Geoconda Arguello Kline, President of the Las Vegas Culinary Union Local 226, Robert Gomez, Past Chairman of the Latin Chamber of Commerce, and Andres Ramirez, NDN's Vice President for Hispanic Programs.
NDN's long-held analysis on the significance of the Hispanic vote is now common knowledge, as further evidenced by Chuck Todd's report, but an important challenge remains in the less than 150 hours until Election Day - the only way the potential of the Hispanic vote, and all registered voters, will translate to an electoral reality is by ensuring that all precincts have the capacity to handle a 90-98% turnout based on 2008 registration numbers. Actual turnout will depend on: 1) making sure people understand how to vote, and 2) access to the polls.
During early voting, some states have already far exceeded turnout from 2004: in Georgia, early voting is already at 180 percent of its 2004 total, Louisiana (169 percent), and North Carolina (129 percent) - all states with large minority populations. Precincts should be prepared to handle twice the number of voters from 2004. We shoud be wary when precincts report that they are prepared for 90% turnout, as opposed to 80% from 2004 - they should have enough machines and/or paper ballots to accomodate the number of all registered voters in 2008, not just enough for a fraction of registered voters based on 2004 numbers.
Florida, with an estimated 12% of Hispanic voters, has already declared an emergency and extended voting hours to 12 hours a day as a result of voter turnout - this with only about 10%, or 1.2 million of registered voters statewide having voted as of Monday. In Georgia,some people waited for eight hours at the polls. By Tuesday the lines were down to "just" four hours, so the GA Democratic Party Chair, Jane Kidd, urged the Secretary of State to keep the polls open: "today, it is clear that we are in a crisis, and it is unclear even if there is enough time for the remaining four million-plus Georgia voters to cast their votes in an efficient and timely manner." By the way, GA state law doesn't provide for weekend voting and prohibits voting on the Monday before Election Day.
In Virginia, a state that's now a "tossup," we're already seeing voting problems thanks to everything from phony fliers stating the wrong date for Election Day, to alleged "gerrymandering" of voting equipment. A lawsuithas been filed against the state of VA charging that some primarily minority neighborhoods are allotted a lesser number of voting machines per person as compared to other areas, leading to longer lines and arguing that this constitutes a "time tax" on the right to vote, as some voters might give up and go home. Voting problems would disproportionately hurt the Democratic Party and Sen. Barack Obama. According to the new ABC/Washington Post poll, during early voting Sen. Obama picked up 60 percent of the vote, to John McCain's 39 percent. According to Gallup, between Oct. 17 and Oct. 27, early voters turned out 53% for Obama over 43% for McCain.
In the meantime, candidates continue to push early voting, as seen in the Obama ad below. Luckily there is also a push for instructional videos on how to vote, in Englishand in Spanish:
Las Vegas, NV - As a resident of Nevada, I don't get the opportunity to vote in other states so my experience with voting systems is somewhat limited. However, Nevada is one of the pioneering states on the issue of Early Voting, and I have worked on campaigns around the country to feel pretty comfortable talking about this process on a national basis. As I have been monitoring the news coverage of Early Voting around the country, my initial reaction is pride that other states are allowing Early Voting as an option, and pride that so many American voters are taking advantage of this process.
There has been one aspect of the news coverage that is somewhat surprising to me, and that is the wait times being reported by news agencies regarding voters who are wanting to vote early. CNN reports that states like Florida and Ohio are experiencing lines lasting up to 3 hours. Generally, people choose to vote early to avoid long waits on election day. I know that this process is still new to many states,, but these wait times are concerning. Nevada experiences some of the highest early voting participation in the country, approximately 60% of all voters will cast a ballot before election day compared to 20-30% for these other states. Nevada is also experiencing record turnout during Early Voting almost double the turnout of 2004, and yet the longest wait times in Nevada are about 45 minutes.
I am concerned on for a couple of reasons. Election departments have noticed that this election cycle has been producing record turnout since the primaries, where counties were running out of ballots. This high turnout should not be surprising to anyone. Although this process is new to many voters and many poll workers, our elections officials should have been prepared for this. It is great that so many people are voting in this election cycle, but if elections officials are being overwhelmed now, what is going to happen on election day?
This is a serious issue that Secretaries of State and election officials around the country should be assessing now. After having two presidential election cycles in which voters around the country were skeptical about the results, we should be taking every precaution to ensure that every voter has a chance to vote, and the the public can have trust in the outcome.
Las Vegas, NV - Voters around the country continue to take advantage of Early Voting options, and are casting ballots in record numbers. Voters are not the only ones taking advantage of this process, campaigns are also working their supporters to make sure that they mobilize their voters. Below is a list of stories covering Early Voting:
Las Vegas, NV - This past weekend, I had the privilege of joining 45,658 other voters in Clark County, Nevada to set a new record of Early Voting participation in this state. It was an awesome experience to see so many people excited about participating in the electoral process. I had the opportunity to go to my neighborhood grocery store, and cast my ballot on an electronic voting machine. I should note for those reading this post who are skeptical about electronic machines that Nevada was the first state to offer a printed verification receipt, and has set the standard on this topic.
As a former campaign operative, I know how difficult it can be to motivate voters to turn out during election season, but this weekend showed that voters were taking advantage of Early Voting and ensuring that they get a chance to participate in this election all on their own. This activity is not unique to Nevada, and several news outlets are reporting that Early Voting participation is up all over the country. Read the CQ article here and the NY Times article here.
Since this process is fairly new to many voters across the country and several states do not offer Early Voting, I have received several requests to explain how this process works. I will be providing frequent updates on this process and will work on providing photos and video of this process. Stay tuned!
This weekend, Adelante, the New Policy Institute's non-partisan campaign which encourages Latinos to vote, will add a new rotation of Spanish-language ads instructing citizens on how to take advantage of early voting opportunities in Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.
It is estimated that one in three voters in the United States will cast their ballots before November 4. Early voting makes it much easier for people to vote, allowing people to do so on weekends, after work, at malls, grocery stores and other places across the state close and accessible to them. For example, in 2004 in Nevada, more people voted early than voted on Election Day itself. This new phase of Adelante will ensure Spanish-speaking voters in these three states are aware of the early voting option and offer information on the times and places where early voting will be taking place.
Our new "votacion temprana" (early voting) effort will run on those days that early voting is in effect, beginning this Saturday - click here to listen to the ad before it goes up on the air. The ad explains that the government has made it much easier for people to vote, and encourages them to visit our Adelante site, which provides comprehensive and state-specific information, in Spanish and English, about voting laws, absentee and early voting, voter rights, voting deadlines, early vote times and locations and other critical information.
A script of the new ad, "Today," follows below. To listen to the other ads or read the scripts, please visit the Adelante site, www.adelante08.org.
Transcript of "Hoy" ("Today")
ANNCR 1: ¿Sabías que si quieres podrías votar hoy mismo?
ANNCR 2: Si estás registrado….
ANNCR 1: … Y ya no puedes esperar más para depositar tu voto…
ANNCR 2: Visita el sitio adelante08.com…
ANNCR 1: … y encuentra cómo y dónde puedes votar…
ANNCR 2: … Hoy mismo.
ANNCR 1: Hoy mismo te enteras.
ANNCR 2: Hoy mismo puedes votar.
ANNCR 1: No esperes más.
ANNCR 2: Sigue adelante y vota.
ANNCR 1: Mensaje pagado por Adelante, NPI y el Tides Center.
Translation:
ANNCR 1: Did you know you can vote today?
ANNCR 2: If you are registered….
ANNCR 1: … And you can’t wait to vote any longer…
ANNCR 2: Visit adelante08.com…
ANNCR 1: … And find how and where to vote…
ANNCR 2: … Today.
ANNCR 1: you get informed today.
ANNCR 2: You can vote today.
ANNCR 1: Don’t wait any longer.
ANNCR 2: Move forward and vote.
ANNCR 1: Message paid by Adelante, NPI and The Tides Center.
Las Vegas, NV - The final three weeks of an election always generate lots of excitement particularly because the past couple presidential election cycles have been so competitive. As we approach Election Day on November 4th many states have begun Early Voting and Absentee Voting. This process enables citizens more opportunities to ensure that they participate in our elections. As more and more states adopt these practices, they will begin to make campaigns adjust their tactics to mobilize their supporters in each election cycle. Regardless of which party you represent, I think that we can agree that there is something noble in our government reaching out to citizens and making voting more accessible to them. Bloomberg News covers the current strategies of the presidential campaigns in an article today titled Obama, McCain Push Backers to Make Use of New Early-Voting Laws.
In addition, each election cycle states and counties are caught in the controversy that is voter purging. A process by which election administration officials remove names of voters from the official registry of voters. There are many reasons why election officials engage in these practices, but inevitably some will get caught removing voters from the polls who should not be removed. The NY Times writes an intriguing article titled States' Actions to Block Voters Appear Illegal. One of the major underlying problems with our elections is that they are administered by state and local jurisdictions each adopting their own rules and regulations. So when legislation such as the Help America Vote Act attempts to fix this problem they have to work with hundreds of jurisdictions across the country to make sure that they have all learned the correct procedures. Also, we have not developed accurate national databases to ensure that verification procedures are dependable.
Finally, Voter Fraud emerges again. Every cycle this past decade, there are allegations of voter fraud that emerge in the last month of a campaign. This cycle ACORN is once again under scrutiny for questionable practices. Here are a few stories to get you up to speed: The LVRJ, the NY Post, and the AP.
Las Vegas, NV - The conversation about Early Voting continues on throughout the country fueled in part by a court ruling in Ohio in which the Republican Party was attempting to prevent the state of Ohio from allowing a window in which citizens could register to vote and cast a ballot early essentially providing a temporary same-day registration period. The Republican Party lost the suit and Early Voting began this week in Ohio.
Early Voting has now been in practice for several election cycles and could prove decisive in several battleground states. In Nevada, it is expected that more than half of all voters will cast ballots before election day. The Washington Post writes that Nov. 4 Isn't the Only Election Day.
The early-voting trend does not benefit one party over the other, experts say, because each is targeting infrequent voters. On the Democratic side, that means urban, often minority voters and students. On the Republican side, it is older voters and those in more rural areas who favor absentee ballots.
For both campaigns, the numbers are critical. In the highly competitive states of Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado, nearly half of voters are expected to cast ballots early this year, Gronke said.
In Ohio, early voting has shaped the candidates' operations.
Enthusiasm in Ohio over Early Voting prompted people to pitch tents and wait to be the first to cast a ballot. Seeing so many people excited about participating in our democracy and casting a ballot is a positive sign for our country.
Still, 31 states now allow some form of no-excuse, in-person early voting, according to a recent compilation by the National Association of Secretaries of State, an organization of state officials who oversee election laws.
Perhaps one-third of the 2008 electorate will vote before Election Day, counting those who visit "early voting" polling places set up by state authorities and those who use longer-established "absentee ballot" procedures - often limited to those who say they will be out of their home precincts or otherwise unable to make it to a polling station on Election Day - that are available in some form in all 50 states.
As a Nevada resident, Early Voting has been an important part of our election process and has reshaped how parties and candidates plan their get-out-the-vote strategies. I am proud of the fact that our government has engaged in a process to make voting more accessible to citizens. Living in a 24 hour town, there are many voters who would not be able to participate if not for Early Voting.
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