NDN

Friday Buzz: Judging Judd, Millennial Tremors, More

Simon's commentary on Senator Judd Gregg's surprise withdrawal of his nomination for Commerce Secretary yesterday was featured in the Huffington Post, the Economist, the Guardian, the Washington Post, and the Hill. From the Economist:

Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist, cheers the news because Mr Gregg had opposed a census reform that might have counted more minority voters, and the census is typically under the Department of Commerce's purview (although this would have been changed had Mr Gregg served).

From Michael Tomasky of the Guardian:

So Gregg was mad, apparently, but there's a back story here. Simon Rosenberg of the Democratic-leaning group NDN, and a former Clinton White House staffer, wrote on his blog:

During the Clinton Administration, Judd Gregg fought hard to deny the Commerce Secretary the ability to use the latest techniques to ensure the most accurate Census count. The goal of this effort was to make it harder for the Census to count minorities, young people and the poor, groups the Republicans do not view as part of their coalition.

And from Chris Cillizza's "The Fix" in the Washington Post:

"The longer the Washington Republican Party holds on to old plays from an old political playbook, fighting a popular Democratic President and a whole new set of 21st century political realities, the more likely they are to suffer in the eyes of the American people," predicted Simon Rosenberg, the head of NDN, a progressive think tank.

NDN Fellows Morley Winograd and Mike Hais were also quoted in a great National Journal piece by Ron Brownstein, "Millennial Tremors" (which would also be a sweet name for the 5th sequel). From the National Journal article:

Generational comparisons can simplify, but early indications are that Millennials may balance idealism and pragmatism better than either Baby Boomers (who have favored the former, at times to self-righteous extremes) or Generation X-ers (who have often had trouble rising above self-interest). Morley Winograd and Michael Hais, fellows at the Democratic advocacy group NDN and co-authors of the perceptive book Millennial Makeover, say that Millennials display the group-oriented values of a "civic generation" like the fabled "GI Generation" that surmounted the Depression and won World War II. Civic generations (a phrase originated by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe) tend to favor "inclusive solutions" that "accomplish results without ... ideological argument," Winograd says.

Thursday New Tools Feature: Obama Finds Search Works

A recent post from Personal Democracy Forum reports that the Obama campaign found online search ads had

a "ridiculously" high Return On Investment as a list-builder. Joe Rospars talked significantly more at a second NOI-sponsored event last month, divulging that search and contextual ads (Google Ads) were the backbone of the campaign's online advertising outreach, and that a relatively straightforward strategy had been steadily and consistently effective...when compared with the cost of acquiring supporters via other channels, search advertising absolutely shone, with an ROI Rospars described as approaching 15:1.

searchThe Obama campaign, recognizing the power of search ads, spent a much larger percentage of their budget on them than the McCain campaign did; the Obama campaign spent about $8 million on search ads in 2008, compared to the McCain campaign's $1.5 million. To put that $8 million in perspective, it is reported to account for nearly half of all political search ad money for the year.

Given the Obama campaign's solid grasp of new media tools, their emphasis on search ads is not surprising. Nor are the results - NDN and the New Politics Institute have been pushing the use of online search ads for years now precisely because they are so inexpensive relative to their impact. For tips on how to use online search ads effectively, check out our excellent papers, Use Search and Advertise Online, or watch the video below of Google's Peter Greenberger speaking at one of our NPI events. Of course, not everyone will get the kind of return that the Obama campaign did - few people have been searched more in the last two years than Barack Obama. But as people get more and more accustomed to using Google whenever they need information about anything, search ads become more and more effective.

Finally, to learn about other great ways to improve your advocacy or campaign, be sure to drop by our NDN / NPI event, "New Tools for a New Era," this coming Tuesday, where we'll look at new advances in social networking, microtargeting, and web video. Anyone interested in technology and politics is guaranteed to geek out, and we'll be debuting a few new toys of our own; stay tuned for more info. 

NPI Event, Feb 17th: New Tools for a New Era

Several factors combined to propel Barack Obama to the presidency in the historic 2008 election including America's rapidly changing demographics, a redrawn electoral map and the use of new tools and media that changed the way candidates communicated with voters.

logosJoin NDN and NPI Tuesday, February 17, for our first post-election tech event of 2009 -- a discussion of three exciting new tools and media with tremendous potential for use in politics, advocacy and governing. This event will showcase some impressive new advances in the fields of social networking, Web video and television microtargeting.

NDN and its affiliate, the New Politics Institute (NPI), have long advocated and helped facilitate the use of new tools and media with our New Tools series. We are excited to bring you these new developments.

Joining us for this forum will be Jason Rosenthal, Senior Vice President of Business Operations at Ning, Inc.; Tim Chambers, Co-Founder of the Media 50 Group and Principal, Dewey Digital; and Amy Gershkoff, co-founder of Changing Targets Media. Jason will talk about how Ning -- a scalable social networking platform -- can be adapted to a huge variety of applications; Tim will show us the new Dewey Digital Radar, which provides accurate and detailed Web video metrics for more than 150 Web video platforms; and Amy will tell us how Precision Buy can make media buys more efficient, from targeting the right cable systems to buying the right television programs.

The forum will take place at NDN's offices from 12 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. Lunch will be served, and seating will be first-come, first-serve. Space is limited, so please RSVP as soon as possible. For maps, speaker bios, and other information, please click here.

NDN Event, Thur Feb 19th: Making the Case for Passing Immigration Reform This Year

On Thursday, February 19, from 11:30 a.m. to 1 p.m., please join NDN and a strong group of thoughtful presenters as we make the case for why Congress can, and should, pass Comprehensive Immigration Reform this year.

The panel will feature Simon Rosenberg of NDN, Rick Johnson of Lake Research, Pete Brodnitz of the Benenson Strategy Group, Janet Murguia of National Council of La Raza (NCLR), and Frank Sharry of America's Voice. Andres Ramirez, NDN Vice President for Hispanic Programs, will moderate the discussion. Lunch will be served at the NDN offices at 729 15th St, NW, between H Street and New York Avenue.  Please click here to RSVP. More information on the panelists is below: 

Simon Rosenberg is President of NDN, a leading progressive think tank and advocacy organization. Rosenberg has worked in national politics and the media world for more than 20 years. He started his career in network television, as a writer and producer at ABC News for five years, before working on the Dukakis and Clinton presidential campaigns. He has been a leader in creating a 21st century progressive movement, an influential champion of a new and more modern agenda for the nation, and an innovator in helping progressives use new tools and media to communicate with rapidly growing demographic groups such as Hispanics and Millennials.

Rick Johnson is a Vice President at Lake Research Partners, where he has designed, conducted and analyzed public opinion research for a number of clients. In addition, he has worked with candidates at all levels of the political process. Johnson joined LRP in 2004 after working for General Mills in Minneapolis and also has worked as an independent consultant providing distribution and competitive intelligence research to European confections companies, for Market Facts (now Synovate) creating new market research tools, managing their diary business and managing their joint ventures, and for the Gallup Organization.

Pete Brodnitz is a Principal at Benenson Strategy Group. Brodnitz brings almost two decades of research experience to his clients, ranging from heads of state on three continents to domestic political work at all levels (from nationwide to municipal and state legislative), to Fortune 500 corporate research and work with non-profits.  Brodnitz has also conducted polling for Democratic-leaning issue advocacy groups such as the New Democratic Network (NDN), the Third Way Foundation, the Brookings Institution and the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), as well corporate clients such as Google.org, Microsoft, Novartis, ESPN, and TIAA-CREF. 

Janet Murguía has become a key figure among the next generation of leaders in the Latino community. Since January 1, 2005, she has served as the President and Chief Executive Officer of the National Council of La Raza (NCLR), the largest national Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization in the United States.  Murguía's public service, which began as legislative counsel to former Kansas Congressman Jim Slattery, then in the White House from 1994 to 2000, ultimately serving as deputy assistant to President Clinton, is complemented by her extensive political experience having served as deputy campaign manager and director of constituency outreach for the Gore/Lieberman presidential campaign.

Frank Sharry is Founder and Executive Director of America's Voice, an organization he created to focus on communications and media as part of a renewed effort to win comprehensive immigration reform. Prior to heading America's Voice, Frank served as Executive Director of the National Immigration Forum for 17 years. The Forum, based in Washington D.C., is one of the nation's premier immigration policy organizations, and has been at the center of every major legislative and policy debate related to immigration for the past quarter of a century.

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Immigration and the Economy: Start-ups vs. Bailout, Greencards vs. Greenbacks

"Dear America, please remember how you got to be the wealthiest country in history. It wasn't through protectionism, or state-owned banks or fearing free trade. No, the formula was very simple: build this really flexible, really open economy, tolerate creative destruction so dead capital is quickly redeployed to better ideas and companies, pour into it the most diverse, smart and energetic immigrants from every corner of the world and then stir and repeat, stir and repeat, stir and repeat, stir and repeat."

A New York Times op-ed today by Tom Friedman - quoted above - brings up some interesting points.  Enjoy

Weekly Update on Immigration: Two Themes - The Economy and Hate

I.  We begin with the good news from this week - The President signs a children's health bill into law that provides for legal immigrant children.  Even though the recent debate over funding health insurance for children was contaminated by fears that "illegal immigrants" would sign up for the program, the bill still passed Congress and was signed into law this week.  It is a very encouraging sign that Members of Congress could see past the politics and recognize that this bill - and the provision that was for granting legal immigrant children care - was the best policy.  Congress and the American people showed how they are now ready to rise above the insults and demagoguery to enact smart policy.  The accusations rang hollow - that the bill would encourage more people to come to the United States to "get on the government dole," or that there was "no verification system to speak of ... in the bill," as stated by Lisa Sylvester on CNN's "Lou Dobbs Tonight," while the phrase "illegal alien bailout" flashed on the screen - all this was kicked to the curb because policy makers knew better.  They knew the truth, and demonstrated a desire to focus on solving problems as opposed to hating immigrants.  Donna Cohen Ross, director of outreach at the Washington-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said she was not surprised by the Lou Dobbs rhetoric.  Still, after studying the House bill's language, she concluded that there was "nothing about the rules that would allow illegal immigrants to use the program."

But the fight is not over, as Simon has stated, "The immigration system is broken and there are a lot of people who live in this country who are not legal citizens,....So the issue of whether benefits are conferred upon them will come up again and again."  Hence the urgency to pass comprehensive immigration reform as a way to stop having domestic policy held up by immigration proxy fights. 

II. Mixed Messages - The debate in D.C. is focused around the economic stimulus package this week.  And while everyone says they care about helping businesses and helping "everyday working Americans," the "economic recovery" plans laid out by Congress are full of mixed messages - I won't delve into NDN's perspective on these issues individually at this time, I'm only pointing out key items that - to me - seem a bit contradictory: 

1.  On the one hand, the Senate kind of backed off the original "Buy America" provisions, diluting them after public outcry.  And yet, after diluting buy America, Senators turned around and came out against increasing H1-B - foreign - workers. 

2.  "He giveth and he taketh away" - A week after the Federal government decided to delay mandatory implementation of the E-Verify system for government contractors, the economic stimulus package could mandate that all recipients use this ineffective system.  Let me get this straight - you have companies that are struggling to the point they need government aid, and somewhere, someone believes it's a good idea to then turn around and impose an additional requirement on them that will potentially dilute any benefit conferred by the stimulus.  Mandating e-verify could require businesses to hire additional Human Resources personnel to become trained in and handle the e-verify checks.  Additionally, it will cause a delay for businesses in receiving the stimulus because most do not currently use e-verify, which means they can't get stimulus until they are trained and registered on the system.  Businesses will have to deal with DHS and SSA on a regular basis, and many workers will potentially lose their jobs as their data is run through e-verify, many unjustifiably.  At this time, all energy and money should be going to helping business get on its feet, and that should be the ONLY goal at this time, not to impose a bureaucratic process that does not even fulfill its intended role.  By all means, we support a functional system that could provide certainty to employers making hiring decisions, but that is not the current e-verify.  Let's worry only about stimulus at this point, then revisit E-verify as one part of a bill to enact comprehensive reforms to the entire broken immigration system.  

And lest we forget - the E-verify database does not contain immigration information, it was created by SSA to verify benefits with W-2s, it was never intended to serve as a system to check legal status.  As reported by the House Committee on Small Business, implementing this now will only hurt businesses - small businesses above all, who already suffer inflation, poor sales, and job loss.  

Finally, I have a test case that demonstrates what happens to business when you mandate the current - flawed - e-verify system: the State of Arizona.  IPC has data about this case, and NILC and CATO have written about it as well.  As Rep. Gabrielle Giffords testified during a committee hearing:

I believe that the Arizona experience should inform the ongoing debate about employment verification and whether the current E-Verify program administered through DHS should be extended and/or mandated Nationwide. 
Some of the businesses that have signed up have reported a variety of challenges and problems using E-Verify. They are finding it complicated, unreliable, and burdensome. They are having great difficulty getting answers from DHS to their problems about the system.  I have heard from employers, employees, and privacy rights advocates who are very vocal that nationally mandating E-Verify as it is would be potentially disastrous for our Nation. They are all experiencing the downfalls of using an inaccurate database with inadequate privacy protections.  Between October of 2006 and March 2007, roughly 3,000 foreign-born U.S. citizens were initially flagged as not work-authorized.  These errors have specifically impacted Arizona workers who have their ability to work wrongfully impacted. The experience of Arizona employers and employees makes it clear that we can do better and that action is needed.

III. Money = Policy.  A great piece by Nina Bernstein of the New York Times this week continued exposing details of how Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) actually strayed away from its mission to protect us for the sake of meeting ridiculous "quotas" of arrests, originally reported in California last week.  Under President Bush, Immigration raids garnered bigger increases in money and staff from Congress than any other program run by ICE even as complaints grew that teams of armed agents were entering homes indiscriminately.  Raids on private homes around the country were billed as carefully planned hunts for dangerous immigrant fugitives, and given "catchy" names like Operation Return to Sender.  Federal immigration officials had repeatedly told Congress that among more than half a million immigrants with outstanding deportation orders, they would concentrate on rounding up the most threatening - criminals and terrorism suspects.

Instead, newly available documents show, the agency changed the rules, and the program increasingly went after easier targets. A vast majority of those arrested had no criminal record, and many had no deportation orders against them, either. Internal directives by immigration officials in 2006 raised arrest quotas for each team in the National Fugitive Operations Program, eliminated a requirement that 75 percent of those arrested be criminals, and then allowed the teams to include nonfugitives in their count.  In the next year, fugitives with criminal records dropped to 9 percent of those arrested, and nonfugitives picked up by chance - without a deportation order - rose to 40 percent. Many were sent to detention centers far from their homes, and deported.

What exactly was Congress expecting when it funded this particular program the most, and then did not partner that funding with oversight?  Money is policy, and if you put your dollars into making arrests, it's not exactly a shock when the recipient of the money focuses on making arrests - without regard for the type of arrest.  This is an example of why it's so important for advocates and for members of our community to look at where the dollars are going, and to shape where funding goes because that will necessarily dictate policy priorities. 

Now, as the Obama administration vows to re-engineer immigration policy to target criminals, we certainly hope they reverse these "internal directives," participate in oversight, and work with Congress so that relevant committees also understand their role in funding certain programs, and then continuing oversight after they decide to appropriate funds.  It will be interesting to see the role Janet Napolitano decides to play in all this - now that she has left Arizona politics behind, Ms. Napolitano is free to prove this is not Arpaio's America, where the mob rules and immigrants are subject to ritual attack and humiliation.

IV. Where is the Outrage? Speaking of ritual humiliation, even though 21st Century America is nothing like Sheriff Arpaio's America, this man refuses to let down.  This "Sheriff" from Maricopa County, AZ paraded more than 200 men and women in shackles and prison stripes, marched under armed guard past a gantlet of TV cameras to a tent prison encircled by an electric fence. They were inmates being sent to await deportation in a new immigrant detention camp minutes from the center of America's fifth-largest city.  Two things are troubling:  1) this has not been recognized as a NATIONAL civil rights issue by the media, most activists, and elected officials.  How can a man - particularly in the position of Sheriff - allowed to parade people like cattle, dehumanizing and humiliating them while they are in a legal proceeding.  We forget - MOST awaiting deportation are not criminals.  Where is our community's outrage at this man, and the outrage of the entire country, that people are paraded in such fashion in the United States of America?
And 2) Arpaio's tactics are even more infuriating given that his office's budget has nearly doubled since 2001. In the meantime, criminals have the run of Maricopa County. As reported by the Goldwater Institute and the East Valley Tribune, the sheriff has 40,000 outstanding felony warrants in his jurisdiction and 2,700 lawsuits filed against him.  So the money is going to pulling stunts as opposed to doing his job.  If he wants celebrity, let him step down. The duty of Sheriff is to keep people safe.  With crime rising, and being in a state that is largely involved in the drug trafficking fight, he should be more concerned with organized crime and fighting real criminals, as opposed to humiliating members of the community.  I share NCLR's call to action against him: 

Arpaio's newest scandal will by no means improve the safety of his community but no doubt get him more publicity. The images that this march will provoke are shocking: horrific shots of people chained, marching through public streets at lunchtime. Perhaps it's a ploy to increase the ratings of Sheriff Joe's new reality show, which is in its seventh week. Are you tired of his antics yet?  Here's what you can do:

1. Request that the Department of Justice investigate Arpaio's abuses.
2. Forward this email to all of your family and friends, post it on Facebook, and circulate it as far and wide as you can. Send a clear message to Arpaio and his thugs that we will not stand for these kinds of abuses in our nation.

Arizona Republic: Arpaio to Move Illegal-immigrant Inmates
Hundreds to be relocated to segregated area of Tent City; sheriff says plan will cut costs
February 4, 2009
By JJ Hensley and Yvonne Wingett

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/2009/02/04/20090204arpaiojail0204.html

Sheriff Arpaio Chains Together Immigrants and Forces
March
February 4, 2009
By Dan Weiss
http://imagine2050.newcomm.org/2009/02/04/sheriff-arpaio-chains-together-immigrants-and-forces-march

Stop Arizona. Stop Arpaio. Stop the Circus.
February 4, 2009
By Rev. David L.
Ostendorf
http://imagine2050.newcomm.org/2009/02/04/stop-arizona-stop-arpaio-stop-the-circus/

"Chain gang?" He should be worried about real gangs. So that you can see the "chain gang" for yourself:

Monday Buzz: Republicans' Red Herrings, Stimulus Battle Lines, More

NDN was featured in a diverse group of media sources this week. Simon was quoted prominently in the San Francisco Chronicle about the legislative battle over the economic recovery package, and in the Las Vegas Sun on how Republicans are creating and playing off of unfounded fear of "welfare" for illegal immigrants to hold up immigration reform. From the SF Chronicle piece:

Simon Rosenberg, who heads NDN, a Democratic advocacy group, says the difficult drama starring Obama in the first weeks - including the new administration's effort and its road bumps over nominees - is being played out in some dire national circumstances.

"The country is hurting, people are desperate for their leaders to succeed - and their expectations are very high," he said. "And he's just a man. He's not a god. ... People are coming to realize ... that change, as it always is, will be hard. Barack Obama will have to grind it out."

And from the Las Vegas Sun article:

“The immigration system is broken and there are a lot of people who live in this country who are not legal citizens,” said Simon Rosenberg, president of NDN, a Washington-based think tank and advocacy organization. “So the issue of whether benefits are conferred upon them will come up again and again.”

Rosenberg said attaching the issue of immigration to other policy questions creates “proxy fights,” a waste of time and political momentum. Debate on the Children’s Health Insurance Program quickly became a setting for one of those proxy fights, he noted.

Simon's analysis of Michael Steel being picked for RNC Chair was also featured in Ben Smith's blog in Politico. Finally, Rob's argument for getting a "free" $420 billion by bringing corporations back to the U.S. was featured in the Bangor Daily News. From the Daily News editorial:

...An even better outcome would be for those companies to reinvest those earnings in equipment and personnel at home.

The measure won approval in 2004 for a one-year period, and an estimated $312 billion in funds was “repatriated,” according to analysis by Dr. Robert Shapiro, former undersecretary of commerce for economic affairs under President Clinton. Of the $312 billion, he wrote, $252 billion was brought back to the U.S. by manufacturing companies. The 2004 law dictated acceptable use of the funds to qualify for the low tax rate, and surveys showed that $73 billion was used to create or keep jobs; $75 billion was used in new capital spending; and $39 billion went toward paying off domestic debt. It also produced $34 billion in new federal tax revenues, making it a “free lunch,” Dr. Shapiro wrote. The same analysis suggests that about $421 billion to $565 billion would come home if the tax were lowered temporarily.

Thursday New Tools Feature: Location, Location, Location

The big news in geek-land this week is the recent release of Google's new location-based mobile application, Latitude. Latitude is a mobile social networking app for smartphones that allows your friends to see where you are in real-time, and vice-versa. Users see a little mug-shot of the people nearby, and have the option to text, call, email, or IM them by tapping their picture.  

latitudeNDN and NPI have written a lot about the importance of mobile technology and its effect on the political landscape. Location apps will add another layer of complexity to the picture. Today, location-based mobile social networking is still an emergent technology, with most users being early-adapters and geeks. Google's entrance into this space is likely to help get location-based networking off the ground (although tech reporters are quick to point out that, without integration with the main social networks like MySpace and Facebook, these apps remain limited in their utility).  

In this experimental stage, the uses and etiquitte for location-based services have not yet been fully identified and codified; for a fascinating and slightly creepy introduction to the location revolution, read the recent Wired feature, "I Am Here: One Man's Experiment With the Location-Aware Lifestyle." Novelty aside, they are mostly limited (for now) to random meet-ups with friends in bars. However, I believe they have real untapped potential for organizing purposes, potential that we are really only beginning to understand. 

One of the challenges for progressives of all stripes (not just politicians) in this new political era is to understand how technology can broaden our reach and our horizons while making our world phenomenologically smaller and more inter-connected, and how we can utilize these advances to enhance solidarity and promote political and civic participation. So go get Latitude (or Loopt or WhosHere or Brightkite), play around with them, and start thinking about what comes next.

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